All Newsletters

Good morning. Global risk sentiment is negative this morning. Geopolitical tensions escalated again after Iran announced over the weekend that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. continued its military strikes against Iran. Although the U.S. stated that it does not recognize Iran's decision and that the strait remains open to vessels engaged in lawful transit, the market's focus...
Read More

Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated. However, after front-month Brent crude oil futures tested the $80 level two days ago, prices have eased back to around $76. U.S. and European equity futures are broadly flat this morning following yesterday’s gains, while Asian markets are trading firmly higher across the region. A notable development comes from UBS, which has upgraded its outlook...
Read More

Macro and Politics * TURKSTAT will release May industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. An analysis of the foreign trade data, which provide important signals regarding industrial production, suggests that the trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy points to a loss of momentum in industrial production in May. In addition, we expect the bridge-day effect associated with...
Read More

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 29 – July 3 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 29 – July 3 period, gross FX reserves increased by USD10.7bn to USD159.9bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10bn to USD55.3bn. We expect...
Read More

Good morning. Following Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels, the United States launched airstrikes against nearly 80 targets inside Iran. In addition, the U.S. withdrew its exemption decision regarding Iranian oil exports. These developments pushed oil prices higher while weighing on global equity markets. However, U.S. and European equity futures are only marginally lower this morning, while Asian markets...
Read More

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL190.3bn, including non-competitive sales of TL105.7bn, through yesterday’s auctions of a 4y TLREF-indexed bond and a 5y fixed-coupon bond. At the new issuance of the 4y TLREF-indexed bond maturing on July 3, 2030, the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.93x, while the periodic interest rate came in at 20.45%. Meanwhile, the reissue of the 5y...
Read More

Good morning. Reports that Iran struck two commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are providing modest support to oil prices this morning, while weighing on technology stocks across Asia and Nasdaq futures. U.S. and European equity futures are also trading in negative territory. Global markets will closely monitor the NATO Summit, which begins today in Ankara. Geopolitical developments, along with any...
Read More

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will hold a 4y TLREF-indexed bond auction and a 5y fixed-coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury’s three-month (Jul – Sep 2026) domestic borrowing strategy, it plans to borrow a total of TL606.8bn in July against redemptions of TL638.7bn, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. The Treasury commenced its July domestic borrowing program with the direct sales of a 2y...
Read More