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Good morning. Global risk sentiment is exhibiting a moderately constructive tone this morning; while U.S. equity futures are mixed, European futures and Asian markets are trading in positive territory. Forward guidance from the Fed regarding potential rate cuts and renewed asset purchases continues to underpin market appetite, and the upward revisions to growth expectations for the U.S., Europe and China as we move...
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*The CBT will release October Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a surplus of USD811mn in October. For the same month, we estimate the balance of payments–defined foreign trade deficit at roughly USD5.4bn, while the services surplus is likely to come in at around USD7.4bn. We estimate the current account deficit at around USD18bn (1.1% of GDP) by...
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Good morning. The anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed materialized. Chair Powell’s remarks were largely neutral, while the upward revision in growth projections and the downward adjustment in inflation expectations stood out. Market pricing currently points to the next Fed rate cut taking place in June 2026, though the probability of an earlier move remains on the table. U.S. equities closed higher...
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MAVI reported 3Q25 results, delivering TL12.2bn in revenue, TL2.7bn EBITDA (22.0% margin) and TL969mn net income. The figures came in slightly above consensus expectations (TL12.1bn revenue, TL2.4bn EBITDA, 19.8% margin and TL814mn net income). Overall, we view the quarter positively, as seasonality and tighter cost control helped the operational performance move towards a more balanced quarter-on-quarter trend....
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*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today @ 14:00 local time. While we expect the MPC to deliver a 100bps rate cut, we do not rule out the possibility of a 150bps rate cut. However, we do not believe the current inflation backdrop provides sufficient room for a 200bps or larger adjustment. The downside surprise in November headline inflation has clearly pushed market expectations higher,...
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Good morning. Global risk sentiment is starting the day on a softer footing ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, scheduled for 22:00 local time. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equities, are trading in negative territory. Despite a 0.44% gain yesterday, Borsa Istanbul exhibited a relatively flat performance with fading momentum compared to the previous session. The top five contributors to the...
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* TURKSTAT will release October Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Foreign trade figures serve as a key leading indicator for our IP forecasts. In October, the monthly increase in imports of intermediate goods (excluding gold and energy) moderated to 4.0%, while the annual rise stood at 4.1%. Another important leading indicator, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing...
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Good morning. Global markets are starting the day on a cautious yet mildly positive footing. In this critical week shaped by the upcoming Fed and CBRT decisions, the recovery attempt in U.S. futures is providing some support to risk appetite, while European and Asian markets display a mixed tone. The baseline scenario continues to be a 25 bps rate cut at Wednesday evening’s Fed meeting; however, we expect the...
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