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* The Treasury borrowed TL48.3bn in total (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions. For the 7-year FRN, the term rate stood at 22%, while the bid-to-cover ratio was notably high at 4.52x, indicating robust demand. For the 9-year fixed-coupon bond, the average cost of borrowing came in at 31.55%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66x, also reflecting solid investor...
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Good morning. As the United States clarifies its country-specific customs practices, market concerns around tariffs are currently balanced. Yesterday, the U.S. announced new customs duties ranging between 25% and 40% on 14 additional countries, separate from previously announced sectoral tariffs. These new rates will come into effect as of August 1. U.S. equity futures are showing a mixed outlook this morning,...
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*The Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL97.2bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 8m G-bond and 4y TLREF-indexed bons auctions. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 3.12x for today’s new issuance of 4y TLREF-indexed auction, indicating high demand, while the term rate was 24.68%. For 8m G-bond auction, the...
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Good morning. The new week begins with U.S.-centered headlines. The key developments can be summarized as follows: i) A threat from the U.S. to impose an additional 10% tariff on BRICS countries and those aligning with their anti-U.S. trade policies; ii) President Trump is expected to send letters this evening at 19:00 local time (TSI) to several countries, proposing new tariffs and trade agreements; iii) The...
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*The Treasury will hold 8m zero coupon and 4y TLREF-indexed bond auctions today. According to three-month (July – September 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury has a domestic redemption of TL316.6bn in July, while in return it plans to borrow TL376.4bn in total throughout the month, indicating a roll-over ratio of 119%. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is weakening this morning. While there is no clear trigger behind this move, the underperformance of recent expectations and the postponement of anticipated Fed rate cuts to later dates are contributing factors. On the other hand, yesterday’s stronger-than-expected employment data in the U.S., along with progress in the legislative process of a plan that includes tax cuts and...
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*The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to ease from 71.1 to 70.1, implying a 1.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release June seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite continues to remain on the positive side. Concrete progress in the United States’ trade negotiations with individual countries, alongside tax cuts and spending plans, has reinforced expectations that the pressure on the Fed will persist through year-end, likely culminating in rate cuts. This outlook is fueling buying activity across global equity markets, led by U.S. stock...
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