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* TURKSTAT will release August industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. Foreign trade data provide important signals for the industrial production outlook. The trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy suggests that weakness in industrial activity persisted into August. Other leading indicators for the month also point to a possible further contraction in industrial...
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Good morning. News that U.S.-Iran tensions could escalate again and the rise in oil prices, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holding around 5.30% following the Fed minutes, the negative outlook in recent reports on technology companies, and the failure to bring budget concerns under control in Europe, particularly in France, are bringing selling to global equity markets. U.S. and European futures and Asian markets...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money and banking statistics, and international reserves for the September 25 – October 2 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross reserves declined by USD4.1bn to USD167.1bn, while net reserves increased slightly by USD185mn to USD53.5bn during the week. We expect today’s...
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Good morning. U.S. markets hit new records yesterday on buying in artificial intelligence companies. However, this morning we are seeing a loss of momentum in index futures due to the rise in oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining above 5.30%. European futures and Asian markets, on the other hand, are more clearly in negative territory. Domestically, the search for solutions to the fund crisis and...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a surplus of TL49.8bn in August, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of TL209.6bn. The central government budget also registered a surplus of TL12.9bn in August, alongside a primary surplus of TL209.9bn. The return of the budget balance to surplus was driven by a 17.2% m/m...
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Good morning. Although the rise in U.S. Treasury yields continues, a slight decline in oil prices and company-specific news flow are supporting global equity markets. Following yesterday's gains in the U.S., index futures are also higher this morning. European and Asian markets are also generally positive. The Fed minutes to be released tomorrow in the U.S. may have a limited impact on markets. Domestically,...
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We initiate coverage on Anadolu Efes with a 12-month target price of TL27.60, implying 53% upside potential, and assign a “BUY” recommendation to the stock. The key pillars of our investment thesis are: i) 2025 providing a cleaner and more comparable base following the deconsolidation of the Russian beer operations, ii) consolidated revenue growth supported by the contribution from Coca-Cola İçecek, and iii) an...
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* The CBT will release September Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Based on the average change in the equally weighted currency basket in September, the monthly inflation outturn, and our assumption for the weighted geometric foreign price index derived from inflation forecasts for Turkey’s trading partners, we estimate that the CPI-based real effective exchange rate will point to a...
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