All Newsletters

Good morning. We are currently in a period where geopolitical tensions have partially eased and oil prices continue to trend lower. However, global risk appetite has yet to show a meaningful recovery. One reason is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations, while another is the anticipated IPO of SpaceX, expected to be the largest public offering in global market history with a size of...
Read More

* TURKSTAT will release May inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. sWe expect monthly CPI inflation to ease to 1.4% in May, while noting that the balance of risks around our forecast remains skewed to the downside. The median market expectation stands at 1.6% m/m, higher than our house forecast. A realization in line with our estimate would see annual CPI inflation edge down from 32.4% to 32.2%. Following the...
Read More

Good morning. Comments from U.S. President Trump suggesting that “an agreement with Iran could be reached soon,” along with reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, are supportive for market sentiment. However, U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equities, remain weak this morning. Should the decline in oil prices continue, global risk appetite may improve further. In Borsa Istanbul, despite...
Read More

* April Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined from 8.4% to 8.1% in March, while the broader underutilization measure that we closely monitor – the composite rate of labor underutilization comprising time-related underemployment, the potential labor force, and unemployment – rose markedly from 29.9% to 31.5%, reaching its highest level since June...
Read More

Good morning. Although global risk appetite has moderated somewhat this morning, it remains in positive territory. Futures on major U.S. and European equity indices are slightly lower, while sectoral indices and most Asian markets—excluding Japan—are trading higher overall. Oil prices are up by approximately 0.5%–1.0% compared to yesterday, supported by the continuation of low-intensity, targeted operations between...
Read More

* The CBT will release weekly portfolio flows and money & banking statistics for the period of May 15 – 22 at 14:30 local time today. Under normal circumstances, these data would have been published last Thursday; however, the release was postponed to today due to the Eid holiday. The CBT’s reserve statistics for the same week have already been released. Accordingly, during the week of May 15 – 22, the CBT’s...
Read More

Tüpraş announced its May product margins. Among middle distillates, the diesel margin declined 13% m/m and the jet fuel margin declined 26%. Among light distillates, the gasoline margin rose 210% versus the prior month, while the fuel oil margin came in at -$17.6/bbl. For Tüpraş, which is included in our model portfolio, we maintain a target price of TL352.00 and a Buy...
Read More

Good morning. Mixed news flow regarding the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and daily fluctuations exceeding 5% in oil prices continue to fuel volatility across global equity markets. At the current juncture, front-month Brent crude oil futures appear to be seeking equilibrium around USD 93 per barrel. U.S. equity futures are trading in negative territory, European futures are pointing higher, while Asian...
Read More