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* The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the policy rate by 100bps, from 40.5% to 39.5%. Our baseline scenario had assumed a 150bps cut, though we had not ruled out a smaller adjustment. A closer look at the details reveals that the October MPC statement adopted a visibly more cautious tone compared to September, suggesting rising upside risks to our year-end policy rate forecast of 37.5%. Against this...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is weak this morning. Reports that the U.S. is planning new restrictions on software exports to China, the potential cancellation of a summit with Russia, and negative news flow centered around Tesla and IBM are weighing on equity markets. However, we note that the current selling pressure should be viewed as a volatility phase near the top, rather than a structural trend...
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*TURKSTAT will release October Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index slid merely from 84.3 to 83.9 level in September. Examining quarterly averages, the index averaged 89.3 in 3Q25 following an average level of 84.6 in 2Q25. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism...
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Good morning. Despite mixed signals regarding the U.S.–China negotiations, global risk appetite remains positive. It is worth noting that yesterday’s sharp declines in precious metals were largely driven by expectations surrounding these talks; however, there is still no deterioration in the main trend for gold. In the short term, the $4,000/oz level serves as key support, while in the medium to long term, $3,600...
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Good morning. Following the release of bank earnings in the U.S., positive results from technology companies, progress expectations in U.S.–China negotiations, and indications that the government shutdown could end next week are driving gains in U.S. equities. In Asia, the resolution of political gridlock in Japan and stronger-than-expected growth data from China are supporting regional markets. The outlook in...
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*Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of October 10 – 17, net international reserves increased by USD2.5bn to USD81.6bn, while gross FX reserves soared notably by USD8.8bn to USD198.6bn. Accordingly, our calculations point to gross foreign exchange reserves reaching an all-time high. We anticipate that the official reserve data, to be released on...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new week on a positive note. In the U.S., concerns that emerged on Friday regarding troubled loans appear to be contained, with no signs of a broader credit issue. Additionally, optimism over progress in U.S.–China relations is supporting buying sentiment across U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets this morning. At Borsa Istanbul, after a...
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* The CBT released its Market Participants Survey for October 2025. Following the higher-than-expected September inflation print, participants’ inflation expectations for the coming periods deteriorated markedly. Accordingly, the 2025 year-end CPI expectation rose to 31.77% in October from 29.86% previously. In addition, the 12-month-ahead CPI expectation increased from 22.25% to 23.26%, while the 24-month-ahead...
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