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*The CBT will release December Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of USD5.15bn in December. We project the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to widen to USD6.6bn, while the services surplus is likely to moderate to USD3.1bn amid weaker net travel revenues. Accordingly, we now expect the current account deficit to close 2025 at...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new day on a positive note. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls released yesterday came in at nearly twice market expectations, pushing back expectations for the first Fed rate cut from June to July, or even September; however, expectations that liquidity conditions will remain ample continue to support equity markets. U.S. and European futures are trading higher, while...
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Koç Holding reported consolidated net income of TL7.0bn in 4Q25 (Consensus: TL4.4bn). The results point to a marked year-on-year improvement (4Q24: TL8.0bn net loss), supported by better financing costs at associates and the rebound in the monetary position item under inflation accounting. The monetary position item improved from -TL1.1bn in 4Q24 to +TL4.6bn in 4Q25. For FY25, consolidated net income came in at...
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We assess the 4Q25 financial results as neutral, with Ford Otosan reporting a net profit of TL 10,649mn, exceeding both market consensus and our house estimate (Market: TL 9.1bn, Tacirler: TL 9.3bn). Net sales increased by 3% YoY and 13% QoQ to TL 223.1bn, while EBITDA reached TL 13.8bn and adjusted EBITDA stood at TL 17.6bn. Excluding one-off items, operational profitability was broadly in line with our...
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*The CBT will unveil the 1st Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. In its latest Inflation Report presentation on November 7, the CBT...
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Good morning. Despite a weak performance in U.S. and European equity markets yesterday, futures contracts are seeking a rebound this morning. In Asia, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today, while the rest of the regional markets are trading in positive territory. From a global perspective, although developed market equities have delivered a very strong performance over the past year, they have lost momentum...
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Turk Tractor reported its 4Q25 financial results with a net loss of TL 502mn, significantly below market expectations, and we view the results as negative. The market consensus had pointed to a net profit of TL 4mn, while our house estimate was a net profit of TL 201mn. In an environment where weak demand conditions and cost pressures continue to weigh on profitability, we revise our forecasts in line with updated...
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* The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) increased by 1.2% m/m in December, while the calendar-adjusted annual change pointed to a contraction of 2.1% y/y. Given that IP had risen by 2.5% m/m and 2.2% y/y in November, the December data indicate a marked loss of momentum in industrial activity. As per sub-categories, the annual contraction was driven primarily...
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