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Good morning. Tensions and the lack of reconciliation between the United States and Iran persist. The continued inability to initiate negotiations, the ongoing U.S. naval embargo, and interventions targeting Iranian-origin commercial vessels are keeping geopolitical risks elevated. As oil prices climb back toward the $100 level, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are broadly trading in negative...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 10 – 17 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross FX reserves rose by USD3.5bn over the April 10 – 17 week to USD174.4bn, while net FX reserves increased by close to USD4bn to USD59.5bn. We further...
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Good morning. Tensions between the United States and Iran persist. As the two-week ceasefire period expires, oil prices climbed back toward $100 last night following Iran’s decision not to participate in negotiations in Pakistan. Subsequently, with the U.S. extending the ceasefire “indefinitely,” prices are again hovering around $93 this morning. U.S. futures are trading notably higher, European futures are...
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* TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index declined to 85 in March from 85.7, bringing the first-quarter 2026 average to 84.8, up modestly from an average of 84 in the final quarter of 2025. A breakdown of the sub-components suggests a mixed picture: the index tracking households’ current financial conditions improved to 72.8 from 71.3, while...
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Good morning. Uncertainty persists regarding whether negotiations between the United States and Iran will continue. Iran is putting forward the removal of the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition, while the U.S. side is requiring an agreement before lifting the blockade. Oil prices are pricing in the possibility of a deal, with recent transactions occurring near the $90 level. Following...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for the month. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the 3-month period covering April – June 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL480.1bn in domestic borrowing against TL505.4bn in redemptions in April, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. Having already raised TL351.3bn since the beginning of...
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Good morning, and wishing you a productive week ahead. Toward the close on Friday, news flow suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened created a strong wave of optimism across global markets. We observed a decline in oil prices alongside equity markets reaching new highs. However, over the weekend, developments indicating that the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, coupled with Iran’s...
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* The credit rating agency S&P affirmed Türkiye’s sovereign ratings at BB-/B with a stable outlook. The agency assesses that, provided the current policy mix is maintained, the economy should be able to navigate the ongoing energy price shock, emphasizing that tight monetary policy and discipline in wage-setting remain critical. S&P’s baseline assumes a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle...
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