All Newsletters

Good morning. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices hovering near the USD 100 mark continue to dominate the outlook. This backdrop, which is adding to global inflation risks, has pushed expectations for Fed rate cuts out to 2027, while markets are now pricing in a rate hike from the European Central Bank in the second half of this year. The shift in monetary policy expectations is weighing on...
Read More

* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for March @ 10:00 local time. According to the latest results of the February survey, respondents revised their year-end 2026 CPI forecast upward to 24.1% from 23.2%, while the year-end 2027 inflation expectation increased to 18.4% from 17.8%. Expectations for CPI inflation 24 months ahead edged up to 17.1% from 16.9%, and the five-year-ahead...
Read More

Alarko Holding reported a net loss of TL875mn in 4Q25 (vs. a net profit of TL2.6bn in 4Q24). Weak operational results, a year-on-year decline in investment income, and a one-off tax expense weighed on bottom-line performance. Consolidated revenues increased by 150% year-on-year to TL1.4bn in the same period (4Q24: TL559mn). For the full year 2025, consolidated revenues came in at TL8.7bn, while the company reported...
Read More

DESA reported TL907mn in revenue, TL277mn in EBITDA, and TL190mn in net income in 4Q25. Although revenues declined on a yearly basis, the notable improvement in gross margin, resilient operational profitability, and a more balanced financial expense profile supported bottom-line performance. The resilience in profitability and strong cash generation maintained throughout 2025 continue to support our investment...
Read More

Good morning. The geopolitical tension that had shown signs of easing at the start of the week has escalated again over the last 24 hours following reciprocal statements and fresh headlines from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have moved back into the USD 90–100 range. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are being pushed further out, while markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike from the European Central Bank...
Read More

*The CBT will release January Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a USD6.5bn deficit in January. We forecast the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to narrow modestly to USD7.3bn, while the services balance surplus is likely to come in at around USD2.7bn. In light of the surge in energy prices following the US – Iran tensions, we revise our...
Read More

Good morning. Recent statements from the US have supported the perception that attacks on Iran could come to an end, while expectations that ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz may resume and the International Energy Agency’s plan to release the largest oil reserve in history are supporting markets. That said, ongoing mine-clearing efforts in the region and mutual threats of further attacks indicate that...
Read More

BIM reported better-than-expected results across all three key line items in 4Q25, with sales of TL186.0bn (consensus: TL182.8bn), EBITDA of TL12.8bn (consensus: TL9.6bn), and net income of TL6.9bn (consensus: TL4.2bn). Strong real revenue growth on a year-on-year basis and the positive momentum in operational margins support our investment thesis. Incorporating the latest results into our model and rolling our...
Read More