Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The new week begins with U.S.-centered headlines. The key developments can be summarized as follows: i) A threat from the U.S. to impose an additional 10% tariff on BRICS countries and those aligning with their anti-U.S. trade policies; ii) President Trump is expected to send letters this evening at 19:00 local time (TSI) to several countries, proposing new tariffs and trade agreements; iii) The country-specific deadline for tariff increases, initially expected to expire on July 9, has been postponed to August 1; and iv) Trump signed what he referred to as the “big beautiful law,” a regulation expected to cause nearly $3.5 trillion in tax revenue loss over ten years. Markets are starting the week on a mixed but overall weak note in light of these developments. U.S. futures and Asian markets are trading negatively, while European futures are slightly in positive territory. On Borsa Istanbul, positive momentum and capital inflows continue. As long as expectations for a rate cut from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) persist, we believe the BIST 100 Index will hold above the 9,800–10,000 support range. Remaining above this zone keeps the short-term targets of 270 and 297 USD equivalents (which correspond to TRY 10,800 and subsequently above TRY 11,500) in play. Following Friday’s closing, technical improvement observed in the daily chart has also become more evident in the weekly outlook. On the fundamental side, 12-month target estimates for the BIST 100 Index continue to point toward the 13,600 level. Today’s agenda is relatively quiet. Later in the week, domestic industrial production data and the Fed meeting minutes from the U.S. will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 278 basis points.