Daily Macro News

* In the week of June 6 – 13, foreigners registered a net purchase of USD475mn in equities and USD580mn in government bonds (excluding repo transactions). This marked the ninth consecutive week of foreign inflows into the equity market, while the bond market saw a return to net foreign buying following two weeks of outflows. As a result, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock edged up from 4.8% to 5.1% within...
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* We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave the policy rate unchanged at 46% at today’s rate-setting, while lowering the upper bound of the interest rate corridor from 49% to 47.5%, thereby restoring corridor symmetry. The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time today. The CBT has already performed an effective rate cut of 300 bps through increasing the size of its weekly repo auctions and...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL79bn from the domestic markets (including non-competitive sales) through yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions and finalized its domestic borrowing program for June. For the TLREF auction, the bid – to -cover ratio was weak at 1.62x and the term rate was 12.47%. Besides, for the fixed coupon auction, the bid – to – cover ratio stood at 4.21x, indicating robust...
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*The Treasury will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 9y fixed coupon bond auction today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for June. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of T60.8bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon and 4y CPI-indexed bond auctions. As a result, the Treasury’s total domestic borrowing so far this month has reached TL158.6bn. According to three-month...
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*The CBT will release April Balance of Payment figures today @ 10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a deficit of USD7.5bn. We maintain our year-end current account deficit forecast at USD22bn, corresponding to 1.5% of GDP. * The CBT will release the results of the June Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the May Survey,...
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* The sequential IP (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) contracted by 3.1% m/m in April, while the calendar adjusted IP rose by 3.3% y/y. A breakdown by sub-sectors reveals that the mining and quarrying index fell by 2.5% and the manufacturing index declined by 3.4%, whereas the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply index posted a modest 0.2% increase on a monthly basis. Preliminary...
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* TURKSTAT will release April Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. April foreign trade data offer valuable input for our IP forecasts. In April, imports of intermediate goods excluding gold and energy recorded a relatively strong increase—rising by 14.6% m/m and 13.7% y/y. Another leading indicator of industrial activity, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI,...
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* The Treasury recorded a cash surplus of TL247.1 in May, bringing the cumulative cash deficit in the Jan-May period to TL837.4bn. It is worth noting that the sizeable surplus recorded in May was largely driven by a surge in corporate tax revenues, stemming from the structural impact of the removal of the fourth corporate provisional tax payment, which was abolished starting in May 2023. The removal of this...
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