Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release May Balance of Payment figures today @ 10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a deficit of USD616mn. Based on foreign trade data, we expect the trade deficit to narrow significantly in May, declining from around USD10bn to approximately USD4bn. In addition, we anticipate that the net tourism income will rise toward USD4.5bn, pushing the services surplus above...
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* TURKSTAT will release May Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. A brief look at the leading indicators for May's industrial output reveals the following: In May, intermediate goods imports (excluding gold and energy) declined by 3% on a monthly basis, while posting a 2.6% increase y/y. Besides, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 47.3...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL48.3bn in total (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions. For the 7-year FRN, the term rate stood at 22%, while the bid-to-cover ratio was notably high at 4.52x, indicating robust demand. For the 9-year fixed-coupon bond, the average cost of borrowing came in at 31.55%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66x, also reflecting solid investor...
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*The Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL97.2bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 8m G-bond and 4y TLREF-indexed bons auctions. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 3.12x for today’s new issuance of 4y TLREF-indexed auction, indicating high demand, while the term rate was 24.68%. For 8m G-bond auction, the...
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*The Treasury will hold 8m zero coupon and 4y TLREF-indexed bond auctions today. According to three-month (July – September 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury has a domestic redemption of TL316.6bn in July, while in return it plans to borrow TL376.4bn in total throughout the month, indicating a roll-over ratio of 119%. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond...
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*The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to ease from 71.1 to 70.1, implying a 1.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release June seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
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* TURKSTAT will release the June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect CPI to rise by 1.38% m/m in June, lower than the median estimate at 1.5%. Should the monthly figure materialize in line with our forecast, annual inflation edge down from 35.4% to 35.1%. A monthly reading below 1.5%, aligned with our forecast, would likely fuel market expectations for a policy rate cut by the CBT. However, even...
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* The state-run natural gas distributor Botas hiked the natural gas prices by 24.6% for residential use. The direct impact of the price increase on the CPI will be around 0.45pp. Considering the indirect effects, we anticipate a higher overall impact on headline. However, with the prevailing positive base effect, we expect the annual CPI to sustain its decline in July, potentially falling below 34%. * Istanbul...
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