Daily Macro News

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 10 – 17 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross FX reserves rose by USD3.5bn over the April 10 – 17 week to USD174.4bn, while net FX reserves increased by close to USD4bn to USD59.5bn. We further...
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* TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index declined to 85 in March from 85.7, bringing the first-quarter 2026 average to 84.8, up modestly from an average of 84 in the final quarter of 2025. A breakdown of the sub-components suggests a mixed picture: the index tracking households’ current financial conditions improved to 72.8 from 71.3, while...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for the month. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the 3-month period covering April – June 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL480.1bn in domestic borrowing against TL505.4bn in redemptions in April, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. Having already raised TL351.3bn since the beginning of...
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* The credit rating agency S&P affirmed Türkiye’s sovereign ratings at BB-/B with a stable outlook. The agency assesses that, provided the current policy mix is maintained, the economy should be able to navigate the ongoing energy price shock, emphasizing that tight monetary policy and discipline in wage-setting remain critical. S&P’s baseline assumes a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle...
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*The credit rating agency S&P is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. At its previous scheduled review back on October 25, S&P did not issue any...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for March @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 1.8% m/m and 26.4% y/y in February, reaching 215.5, while recording a 3.9% y/y decline in real terms. It’s worth noting that the annual real change in the RPPI had briefly turned positive in November at 0.2%, marking the first positive reading since January 2024,...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release March central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL279.6bn in March, while the primary balance recorded a shortfall of TL48.9bn. This brought the cumulative cash deficit to TL618.3bn in the first three months of the year. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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* The Treasury will hold direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond, a 2y gold-denominated bond, and a 2y gold-denominated lease certificate today. The Treasury sold TL24.1bn at the direct sale of 2-year lease certificate yesterday, bringing total domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month to TL157.7bn. Following today’s direct sales, the Treasury will conduct 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions on April...
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