Research

Good morning. Oil prices have retreated below the $90 level following comments from U.S. President Trump suggesting that an agreement with Iran could be signed in the very near term. These remarks have also supported strong buying interest across global equity markets. It should be noted, however, that Iran has not yet confirmed the existence of such an agreement. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equity...
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*The CBT will release April Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of around USD4.2bn in April, compared to the market median forecast of USD5.6bn. We estimate that the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit narrowed to USD5.2bn during the month, while the services balance surplus remained robust at approximately USD3.5bn. Our year-end...
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Good morning. Following the downing of a US Apache helicopter, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are escalating once again. Initially, the US reportedly struck several Iranian targets, after which reports emerged of Iranian attacks on US bases located in three different countries in the region. Within this context, oil prices have shown a modest upward bias; however, increased vessel traffic in the...
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Mavi reported TL 12.7 billion in net sales, TL 2.4 billion in EBITDA and TL 686 million in net income attributable to shareholders in 1Q26. Consensus stood at TL 12.6 billion in net sales, TL 2.5 billion in EBITDA and TL 590 million in net income. We view 1Q26 as a neutral quarter. Sales came in line with expectations, while operating profitability saw limited pressure stemming from operating expenses. The...
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*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today @ 14:00 local time. We do not expect the CBT to make any changes to its monetary policy framework at today’s meeting. Accordingly, we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 37%, while the lower and upper bounds of the interest rate corridor are likely to be maintained at 35.5% and 40%, respectively. We also do not anticipate any meaningful...
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Good morning. Following the downing of an Apache helicopter belonging to the United States, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating again. Initially, the U.S. struck certain Iranian targets, after which reports emerged of Iranian attacks on U.S. bases located in three different countries in the region. In this context, oil prices have shown a mild upward bias; however, increased vessel traffic in the...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry raised a total of TL151bn from domestic markets, including TL71bn in non-competitive sales, through yesterday’s auctions of a 4y TLREF-indexed and a 4y FRN. Demand remained moderate, with bid-to-cover ratios of 1.72x and 1.93x in the TLREF-indexed and FRN auctions, respectively. The term rate was set at 19.25% in the TLREF-linked auction, while the FRN auction cleared at a term...
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Good morning. Announcements made within a two-hour interval by both Iran and Israel regarding the suspension of hostilities provided a modest boost to global market sentiment. Front-month Brent crude oil prices retreated to $92 per barrel; however, a clear risk-on appetite has yet to emerge across global equity markets. U.S. futures are trading modestly higher this morning, while European futures remain slightly in...
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