Research

* We expect the January Current Account Balance to post a deficit of USD4.5bn, above the median estimate of USD3.3bn according to the survey conducted by ForInvest.  We would like to reiterate that we have recently revised our 2025 year-end current account deficit forecast to USD 22bn (1.5% of GDP) from USD 15bn (1% of GDP), based on the assumptions that: (i) the real appreciation of the Turkish lira will persist...
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We review TAV Airports' February passenger growth as "Slightly Positive." While the weakness in domestic passenger numbers put some pressure on overall traffic, international passenger growth continued. We maintain TAVHL in our Model Portfolio with a target price of TL396 and a 60% upside potential. We also reiterate our BUY...
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Good morning. The downward revision of growth expectations in the U.S. and political obstacles to defense spending plans in Europe are weighing on global markets. While the sell-off in the U.S. is part of ongoing concerns since mid-February regarding tariffs, inflation, and recession risks, Europe is pricing in a newly emerging agenda. In Asia, markets remain caught between stimulus expectations and global...
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*The Treasury will hold 2y fixed coupon and 4y TLREF-indexed bond auctions today. According to the three-month (Mar – May 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL124.7bn in March, while in return plans to borrow TL201.2bn throughout the month, via five auctions. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold a 7y FRN bond auction on March 17th, and 3y CPI-indexed...
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We evaluate Turkish Airlines’ February traffic data as "Slightly Negative." The decline in domestic passenger numbers pressured overall traffic. Although international passenger growth partially balanced the results, passenger growth contracted. Cargo volume remained flat YoY due to the high base effect of a strong 2024. We maintain THYAO in our Model Portfolio with a target price of TL428.00 and a 27%...
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Good morning. Global markets are off to a mixed start this week. U.S. futures are in negative territory, while European futures are on the positive side. In Asia, weak Chinese data is weighing on Shanghai and Hong Kong, leading to sell-offs, while the rest of the Asian markets are trading higher. Borsa Istanbul closed a strong week by climbing to its highest level in the past seven months. With strong capital...
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* TURKSTAT will release January Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Following the strong increase in December, we anticipate a slowdown in January's IP figures. Please note that the sequential IP (the seasonal and calendar adjusted monthly figure) surged by 5% m/m in December 2024, while the calendar adjusted IP soared by 7% y/y. Our expectation for a weaker January IP is primarily...
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MGROS announced its 4Q24 financial results below market expectations and our estimate, reporting a net profit of TL731 million, down 37% year-on-year. The lower-than-expected net profit was mainly driven by deferred tax income and net financial expenses. On the other hand, strong operational margins, which exceeded market expectations, and the company’s 2025 guidance are expected to have a more positive impact in...
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