Research

Good morning. Despite U.S. markets being closed due to Thanksgiving, expectations of a rate cut from the Fed on December 10 continue to underpin global risk appetite. Borsa Istanbul is attempting to align with this constructive tone, though upward momentum remains constrained. The BIST 100 Index advanced 0.28% yesterday, with ISCTR, ENKAI, TAVHL, TUPRS and YKBNK delivering the strongest positive contributions,...
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* October Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment remained unchanged at 8.6% in September, while the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment– decreased from 29.8% to 28.6%. Moreover, within the components, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment edged...
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Good morning. While expectations for Fed rate cuts remain intact, the rebound observed in U.S. equities over the past four sessions has only now been sufficient to break above last week’s post-Nvidia-earnings highs. U.S. markets will be closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday; tomorrow, trading will open in the morning but close early for a half-day session. European futures and Asian markets are once again...
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* The CBT Governor Karahan spoke yesterday in a live broadcast on “Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Outlook” outlining the Bank’s policy stance, the ongoing rebalancing in domestic demand, and the disinflation process. He noted that the more than USD80bn increase in gross reserves has largely reflected resident FX conversions and highlighted the sharp decline in FX-protected deposits (KKM). Reaffirming price...
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Good morning. As expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to strengthen, the discussion around who will lead the Fed after Chair Powell is increasingly gaining traction. The common thread among the prominent candidates is their alignment with President Trump’s calls for rate reductions. Accordingly, we expect both the timeline for rate-cut expectations to be pulled forward and the total anticipated cuts over the...
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* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real...
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Good morning. The shift in expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s 10 December meeting—from the 20–30% band to the 60–70% band—and the forward-pricing of the first “certain” rate cut being pulled forward by two months, from March 2026 to January 2026, is providing a constructive tone for global equities. U.S. and European futures are trading in positive territory this morning, while Asia exhibits a mixed pattern....
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Good morning. The dovish remarks delivered by Fed officials over the past two days have strengthened expectations for a rate cut at the December meeting, prompting a rebound in U.S. equities. While this optimism continues to rest on a fragile foundation, it may still provide short-term support to global markets. Major U.S. indices rose between 0.44% and 2.69% yesterday, whereas U.S. futures are slightly negative...
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