Research

Good morning. Despite the gains observed yesterday in the U.S. and European markets, global risk appetite is losing momentum this morning. The announcement by the U.S. to impose a 35% tariff on Canada, coupled with President Trump’s remarks suggesting that general tariffs of 15%–20% could be applied to countries that did not receive formal notification, have reignited trade-related concerns. Turning to Borsa...
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*The CBT will release May Balance of Payment figures today @ 10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a deficit of USD616mn. Based on foreign trade data, we expect the trade deficit to narrow significantly in May, declining from around USD10bn to approximately USD4bn. In addition, we anticipate that the net tourism income will rise toward USD4.5bn, pushing the services surplus above...
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Good morning. The minutes from the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting revealed more clearly the divergence of views among committee members regarding interest rate cuts and inflation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump intensified his calls for rate cuts, raising his demand to 300 basis points. The trade tariff agenda appears to be heating up again. In addition to the letters sent to 14 countries earlier this week, it was...
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* TURKSTAT will release May Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. A brief look at the leading indicators for May's industrial output reveals the following: In May, intermediate goods imports (excluding gold and energy) declined by 3% on a monthly basis, while posting a 2.6% increase y/y. Besides, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 47.3...
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Our Tacirler Investment Model Portfolio, launched in June 2023, has delivered a nominal return of 168% over the past two years, while the BIST 100 index rose by 86% during the same period. Accordingly, the portfolio's relative performance since inception indicates an outperformance of 44 percentage points compared to the index. Over the past year and year-to-date, however, the portfolio has performed in line...
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At the beginning of 2025, in Türkiye, we anticipated an easing of domestic interest rates, an acceleration of growth and an improvement in financials. At present, CBRT policy rate is approximately 1,000 basis points higher than expected. Risks of a loss of growth momentum have increased, and the financial sector has experienced significant pressure in the first half of the year. On the external front, just a few...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite remains balanced, while inconsistent statements from the U.S. are contributing to a lack of clear direction in the markets. Although markets were encouraged by suggestions that the deadline for tariffs—extended from July 9 to August 1—could be further relaxed, President Trump’s assertion that “there will be no extension” dampened sentiment. Nonetheless, we believe these...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL48.3bn in total (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions. For the 7-year FRN, the term rate stood at 22%, while the bid-to-cover ratio was notably high at 4.52x, indicating robust demand. For the 9-year fixed-coupon bond, the average cost of borrowing came in at 31.55%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66x, also reflecting solid investor...
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