Research

Good morning. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields has accelerated. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.20% yesterday, although we are seeing a modest decline this morning. This environment, which has been weighing on global equities, is continuing in the morning hours with a partial stabilization effort. U.S. futures are flat, European futures are higher, while Asian equities are generally weak. Pressure...
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* Foreign portfolio flows reversed course in the September 11–18 week, with investors offloading USD109.8mn of equities and USD116.9mn of bonds, excluding repo transactions. The renewed outflow from equities followed net purchases of USD277.7mn in the previous week, while the two-week run of foreign buying in the bond market also came to an end. Moreover, foreigners’ share in the total bond stock declined from 7.2%...
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Good morning. Although stronger-than-expected PMI data in the US provided positive signals regarding the growth outlook, they weighed on equity markets by creating an environment in which the Fed could raise interest rates faster than previously anticipated. US Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, while mortgage rates are also testing their highest levels in the past year and a half. The move above 5%,...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money and banking statistics, and international reserves for the September 11 – 18 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross FX reserves declined by USD4.2bn to USD174.5bn, while net FX reserves fell by USD6bn to USD56.1bn during the week. We expect today’s official data to...
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* The CBT will release the September Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the August Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations declined by 0.26pp to 23.69% among market participants, while rising by 0.30pp to 32.80% for the real sector and by 0.64pp to 45.58% for households. The share of households expecting inflation to...
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Good morning. The decline in oil prices has lost momentum around the USD 95 level, but prices remain within the downward trend channel that started from the USD 105–110 region. As part of the ongoing United Nations meetings in the US, it was announced yesterday that US and Iranian officials held a three-hour meeting. Despite messages from the US side suggesting that the meeting was productive and raising hopes that...
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Since its inclusion in our Model Portfolio on June 6, 2023, Tüpraş has delivered a 678% nominal return and a 217% relative return versus the BIST 100. Following the strong share price performance, our revised 12-month target price of TL481 implies approximately 21% upside from yesterday’s close. Given the strong performance to date, we now see more limited potential for continued outperformance versus the index and...
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Good morning. While U.S. equities posted strong gains yesterday, led by technology companies, U.S. and European futures are slightly positive this morning, and the overall tone in Asia is also buying-led. The fact that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields tested but failed to break above 5% yesterday is also supporting the buying. Domestically, selling pressure continues due to the liquidation process affecting 131 funds....
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