Research

* The new Medium-Term Program (MTP) covering the 2027–2029 period introduced substantial revisions to the macroeconomic projections, most notably a marked postponement of the disinflation path relative to the previous program. The 2026 growth forecast was revised down to 3.3% from 3.8%, while the year-end inflation forecast was raised sharply to 28.4% from 16%. Year-end inflation projections for 2027 and 2028 were...
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* The CBT will release August Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Based on the average change in the equally weighted currency basket in August, the monthly inflation outturn, and our assumption for the weighted geometric foreign price index derived from inflation forecasts for Turkey’s trading partners, we estimate that the CPI-based real effective exchange rate will point to a monthly...
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Good morning. Following US President Trump’s statement that he “does not expect the renewed attacks on Iran to last long,” oil prices and US Treasury yields edged lower, while Wall Street saw some buying interest. Although US and European futures and Asian equities were trading positively in early morning hours, we are seeing them lose momentum afterward, while the decline in oil prices continues. In Borsa...
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* TURKSTAT will release August inflation figures today at 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 2.1% in August, with annual inflation edging up slightly to 31.9% from 31.8% in July. The market median, meanwhile, points to a monthly increase of around 1.9–2.0% for August, placing the consensus slightly below our forecast. The temporary removal of the special consumption tax (SCT) on diesel...
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Good morning. Tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, while oil prices have also moved higher in parallel, approaching $95. We are also seeing a notable rise in US Treasury yields, while concerns over rising macro risks due to high public debt are weighing on equity markets. US and European futures, as well as Asian equities, are trading lower this morning, with losses of up to 3% particularly...
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* The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.1 in August from 47.7 in July, reaching its highest level since May. Nevertheless, with the index remaining below the 50.0 no-change threshold, the deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions extended to a twenty-ninth consecutive month. The accompanying release noted that the war in the Middle East continued to weigh on the...
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Tüpraş announced its August product margins. Accordingly, among middle distillates, diesel and jet fuel margins increased by 13% and 6% MoM, respectively. Among light distillates, gasoline margins rose 6% MoM, while the fuel oil margin declined to -$15.6/bbl from -$12.4/bbl in July. On a YoY basis, diesel, jet fuel and gasoline margins increased by 285%, 270% and 153%, respectively. Tüpraş remains in our Model...
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Good morning. Oil prices are once again trading above $90 as tensions between the US and Iran continue. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tightening messages have brought expectations for the Fed’s first rate hike forward from December to October, while the European Central Bank is also expected to raise interest rates this month, on September 10. Against this backdrop, US stock futures are trading flat this morning...
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