Research

* The Treasury will hold direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond, a 2y gold-denominated bond, and a 2y gold-denominated lease certificate today. The Treasury sold TL24.1bn at the direct sale of 2-year lease certificate yesterday, bringing total domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month to TL157.7bn. Following today’s direct sales, the Treasury will conduct 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions on April...
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We have updated our 2026 macro framework to reflect the evolving heightened of risks amid recent geopolitical...
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* Credit rating agency Fitch announced on Friday that it has affirmed Turkey’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-’, while revising the Outlook to “Stable” from “Positive”. The review was conducted outside the agency’s regular rating calendar, with Fitch noting that developments in the country warrant such a deviation from the calendar. material and sudden changes in a country’s credit...
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* TURKSTAT will release February Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Recall that sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) IP contracted by 2.8% m/m in January, reverting to a contractionary phase following two consecutive months of expansion, while calendar-adjusted annual production declined by 1.8% y/y, pointing to a continued weakness in the underlying trend. Leading...
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Good morning. While the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week ceasefire is supporting global risk appetite, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic are weighing on sentiment. Brent crude oil prices, which had eased to as low as USD 88 yesterday, are moving back toward USD 95 this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 27 – April 3 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations uopn the analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of March 27 – April 3, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD6.7bn to USD162.2bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD11bn to USD46bn. This implies that,...
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Good morning. Reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire are providing a very strong boost to global markets this morning. Oil prices are down by as much as 20%, while U.S. and European futures are up between 2.0% and 5.0%, with similarly strong gains across Asian equities. We believe it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL99.8 via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed bond auction, including TL33.7bn in non-competitive sales. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at a relatively weak 1.62x, pointing to subdued demand, while the auction cleared at a term rate of 19.39%. This brought the Treasury’s total domestic borrowing for the month to TL133.6bn. According to the domestic borrowing...
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