Research

Good morning. Mutual threats between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate. Front-month oil futures have climbed above $100 per barrel, while actively traded contracts are approaching $95. U.S. and European equity futures are trading broadly flat, while Asian markets are showing a mixed performance. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it will continue to...
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* The CBT will release the July Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the June Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations edged down by 0.01pp to 23.81% among market participants, while remaining unchanged at 33.1% for the real sector. Household inflation expectations, meanwhile, declined more noticeably, falling by 3.38pp to...
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Good morning. While tensions and mutual threats between the United States and Iran continue, oil prices remain above the $90 level. The latest earnings reports released in the U.S. have also been broadly weak. As a result, global risk appetite remains limited, with U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets generally trading lower. The BIST 100 Index rose 1.2% yesterday to close at 14,138 points. The...
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*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today at 14:00 local time. Our base case remains that, following today’s MPC meeting, the CBT will gradually resume weekly repo auctions, although we believe uncertainty surrounding the timing of this step has increased in recent weeks. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran have heightened upside risks to the inflation outlook through higher oil...
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Good morning. The U.S.–Iran tensions continue, but bargain hunting in semiconductor stocks and stronger-than-expected financial results from General Motors, accompanied by upward revisions to guidance, supported buying interest on Wall Street. This morning, U.S. futures are weaker, while European futures and Asian equities are generally trading higher. Domestically, comments from JPMorgan and Citigroup regarding...
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*The CBT will release the July Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by 0.2 points to 103.5 in June, while the seasonally adjusted measure rose by 1 point to 102.0, remaining above the neutral 100 threshold for a second consecutive month. As a reminder, the seasonally adjusted index had declined by 1.4 points...
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Good morning. While tensions between the United States and Iran continue, CNN’s report that a ten-day ceasefire is being considered is putting downward pressure on oil prices and supporting gains in U.S. futures. European futures are trading lower, while Asian markets are generally positive. Global risk appetite appears balanced this morning and is showing signs of a rebound. Borsa Istanbul recovered above the...
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* The Treasury will hold a 7m zero-coupon bond and a 2y fixed-coupon bond auctions, as well as the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate and finalize its domestic borrowing program for July. The Treasury raised TL19.9bn through the direct sale of a 2-year lease certificate yesterday, bringing total domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month to TL258.3bn....
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