Research

Good morning. Talks between the U.S. and Iran have been paused for one week, with negotiations expected to resume over the weekend. Meanwhile, OPEC's signal of higher production and the continued flow of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz are helping oil prices remain close to their pre-conflict levels. Throughout the week, global markets will focus on the NATO Summit, hosted by Türkiye in Ankara. U.S. and...
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* The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to increase merely to 105.7, implying a 0.1% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * Monthly CPI inflation came in at 1% in June, in line with our house forecast, while market expectations were also broadly aligned with our...
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Good morning. Following yesterday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, market expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike have shifted further into the future, with some commentators even beginning to discuss the possibility of a rate cut. In our view, the current inflation outlook does not support a rate cut. However, a postponement of further tightening remains a plausible scenario, which would likely...
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* TURKSTAT will release June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 1.0% in June, which would bring annual inflation down to 32.1. We continue to observe the decline in food prices that began in May extending into June, leading us to expect a second consecutive month of negative monthly food inflation. Yet, the increase we have observed in vegetable prices towards...
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Good morning. Brent crude oil prices have retreated to around USD 70 in the active contract, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the U.S.–Iran conflict. Although negotiations remain challenging, they are continuing, and optimistic remarks from the U.S. side are providing support to market sentiment. U.S. and European equity futures are trading modestly higher this morning, while Asian markets are...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 19 – 26 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 19 – 26 period, gross FX reserves declined by USD8.2bn to USD149bn, while net FX reserves fell by USD6.9bn to USD45bn. We expect today’s...
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Good morning. U.S.–Iran negotiations continue to make slow, albeit gradual, progress. Iran’s statement that it will not engage in direct talks but will continue diplomacy through mediators is drawing attention this morning. Oil prices are trading flat, while pressure on gold persists as expectations for further Fed rate hikes continue to weigh on the precious metal. U.S. and European equity futures are broadly...
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Tüpraş announced its June product margins. Accordingly, among middle distillates, diesel margin declined by 4% m/m, while jet fuel margin decreased by 13% m/m. Among light distillates, gasoline margin remained flat compared to the previous month, while fuel oil margin was recorded at -12.5 USD/bbl. On a yearly basis, diesel, jet fuel and gasoline margins improved by 129%, 146% and 86%, respectively. We have a...
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