Research

Good morning, and wishing you a productive week ahead. Toward the close on Friday, news flow suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened created a strong wave of optimism across global markets. We observed a decline in oil prices alongside equity markets reaching new highs. However, over the weekend, developments indicating that the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, coupled with Iran’s...
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* The credit rating agency S&P affirmed Türkiye’s sovereign ratings at BB-/B with a stable outlook. The agency assesses that, provided the current policy mix is maintained, the economy should be able to navigate the ongoing energy price shock, emphasizing that tight monetary policy and discipline in wage-setting remain critical. S&P’s baseline assumes a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle...
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*The credit rating agency S&P is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. At its previous scheduled review back on October 25, S&P did not issue any...
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Good morning. Expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be extended and potentially evolve into a lasting non-aggression agreement are supporting global risk appetite. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equity markets, are trading higher this morning, while oil prices are easing and U.S. Treasuries—traditionally viewed as safe havens—are seeing selling pressure. The S&P 500...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for March @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 1.8% m/m and 26.4% y/y in February, reaching 215.5, while recording a 3.9% y/y decline in real terms. It’s worth noting that the annual real change in the RPPI had briefly turned positive in November at 0.2%, marking the first positive reading since January 2024,...
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Good morning. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues; however, messages from the U.S. side indicating that negotiations will proceed and that the war may be nearing an end are supporting markets. Oil prices have eased back to around USD 90, while buying interest is returning to U.S., European, and Asian equities. Futures are flat this morning, but global risk appetite is gradually strengthening. On the...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release March central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL279.6bn in March, while the primary balance recorded a shortfall of TL48.9bn. This brought the cumulative cash deficit to TL618.3bn in the first three months of the year. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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* The Treasury will hold direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond, a 2y gold-denominated bond, and a 2y gold-denominated lease certificate today. The Treasury sold TL24.1bn at the direct sale of 2-year lease certificate yesterday, bringing total domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month to TL157.7bn. Following today’s direct sales, the Treasury will conduct 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions on April...
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