Research

*TURKSTAT will release June Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index remained virtually unchanged in May, inching up by just 0.1 points from 96.6 to 96.7. As per the sub-components of May data: The consumer confidence index rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis to 84.8, while the real sector confidence index declined by 2.2% to 98.6. Moreover, the services confidence index climbed 0.9%...
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Good morning. While geopolitical risks remain in the background due to the continuation of calm following the ceasefire, global equity markets maintain a mildly positive bias. On Borsa Istanbul, although we saw an attempt towards the 9500 level yesterday, the session closed around 9420. As we approach the weekend, cautious positioning ahead of the CHP Congress Court Case expected on June 30, as well as potential...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of June 13 – 20 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of June 13 – 20, net international reserves slid by USD5.46bn to USD49.3bn, while gross FX reserves dropped by USD3.65bn to USD155.8bn. Accordingly, our...
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Good morning. In global markets, the adage “no news is good news” appears to be driving sentiment. Following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, there were a few initial violations; however, the absence of any significant reciprocal attacks since then has allowed positive momentum to persist across markets. Investors have primarily been focused on whether the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, whether there would...
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*The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined from 101.4 in June to 100.3, retreating to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, while the seasonally adjusted index decreased from 98.6 to 98.4, marking its lowest point since August 2024. It is worth recalling that readings below the threshold of 100 in the RSCI reflect a waning sentiment among real sector representatives regarding economic activities....
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Good morning. The flurry of developments surrounding the Iran–Israel tension continues at full speed. First, late last night, Iran struck the Al Udeid Air Base—located approximately 40 km south of Doha—which is the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. According to U.S. sources, there were no casualties due to the pre-announced strike, and President Trump expressed his gratitude to Iran for this....
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* The CBT will release the June Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) slid further to 101.4 level in May from the previous month’s 103.2, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI declined to 98.6 from 100.8, easing below the 100-threshold for the first time since September. Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rate (CUR)...
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Good morning. Over the weekend, the feared scenario materialized as the United States launched a direct military intervention against Iran, announcing that it had struck three separate nuclear facilities. Going forward, markets will focus on how Iran will respond to this attack—whether it will target U.S. bases in the region or opt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, in addition to these developments,...
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