Research

*The CBT will release January Real Effective Exchange Rate today @14:30 local time. Taking into account the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change, we expect the REER to rise to 69.2 in January, up from 67.1 in the previous month, reflecting a 3.1% real appreciation of the TL. * The CBT will release the Monthly Price Developments report for January today @18:00 local time. The report is a...
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Good morning. The U.S. decision to suspend additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month has led to buying activity in global markets. However, despite a rebound from losses of around 2%, U.S. and European stock markets still closed in negative territory. Meanwhile, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are in positive territory this morning. At Borsa Istanbul, sharp sell-offs were observed...
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* TURKSTAT will release January inflation figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the CPI to increase by 4.1% m/m in January, bringing the annual CPI down from 44.4% to 40.9%. According to the survey conducted by Foreks, the market consensus points to a slightly higher monthly inflation estimate of 4.3%. For 2025, we expect the downward tendency in inflation to persist; however, we project the pace of decline to...
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Tüpraş announced its product margins for January. Accordingly, among middle distillates, diesel margins improved by 4% MoM to $16.8/bbl, while jet fuel margins increased by 14% MoM to $13.8/bbl. Among light distillates, gasoline margins rose by 5% MoM to $11.6/bbl, while fuel oil margins stood at negative $10.7/bbl. In January, Brent crude oil prices averaged $79.2/bbl, marking a 7% MoM increase. While the fuel oil...
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Good morning. The United States' increase in tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China is putting pressure on global markets. Leading up to and following the elections, the U.S. has consistently signaled updates to tariff policies. However, the actual implementation of these measures is now triggering negative pricing in the markets. Mexico, Canada, and China have responded with varying tones, but we can say that a...
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Good morning. We are generally seeing a buying trend in international markets. On the other hand, Borsa Istanbul closed flat yesterday, but today we expect a rebound towards the 10,100 - 10,200 range. Today is the last trading day for January-term equity contracts traded on VIOP, so closing transactions in arbitrage positions may create some selling pressure. According to the data released by the Central Bank...
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*Credit rating agency Fitch is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. Please recall that Fitch last raised Turkey’s credit rating from "B+" to...
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Good morning. As expected, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25% - 4.50% range. The phrase "progress has been made in easing inflation" was removed from the statement, which can be interpreted as a hawkish signal. However, the market had already priced in the Fed's stance, expecting only one rate cut this year, likely in early June. Therefore, the Fed's decision does not have a...
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