Research

* The CBT will release the April Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) further improved to 104.1, which stands for the highest level since May, up from 102.4 in March, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased from 102.8 to 103.2. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) showed a modest change, with the unadjusted CUR...
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Good morning. U.S. President Trump’s harsh criticism of Fed Chair Powell triggered a sell-off of up to 2.5% on Wall Street, while U.S. futures are showing a partial rebound this morning. European futures remain weak, whereas in Asia, buying is observed across most markets except Tokyo. Domestically, despite the policy rate standing at 46%, the Central Bank of Turkey’s Weighted Average Cost of Funding has exceeded...
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*TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Consumer Confidence Index increased further to 85.9 in March, up from 82.1, marking the highest level since May 2023. Accordingly, after averaging 80.6 in 4Q24, the index has materialized at an average level of 83 in 1Q25. Following weak signals of economic activity reflected in January’s leading indicators, the February data pointed to...
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Good morning. As we begin the new week, the news flow remains subdued, partially due to holidays abroad. However, China's warning to countries cooperating with the United States stands out this morning, indicating that trade tensions continue unabated. Looking at global markets, risk appetite appears weak. U.S. futures are trading lower, and Tokyo is under pressure in Asia, while some of the other open Asian...
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* The short-term external debt stock in February materialized at USD13.2bn, down by 1.3% m/m. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD223.6bn as of February 2025. Of this total, USD19.2bn is attributed to loans taken by...
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Good morning. Let's begin this morning with the interest rate decision from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In line with our expectations, the MPC raised the policy rate from 42.5% to 46.0%, and increased the overnight lending rate (the upper bound of the interest rate corridor) to 49%. The Committee also announced that it will resume weekly repo auctions,...
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* The CBT will release February short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. Short-term external debt stock in January materialized at USD174.6bn, up by 0.9% m/m. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at...
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Good morning. Comments from Fed Chair Powell highlighting the inflationary and growth-related uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariff policies triggered a sell-off in U.S. equities. Fitch’s downward revision of global and country-specific growth forecasts also contributed to the risk-off sentiment. However, U.S. equity futures and Asian markets are seeking a rebound in positive territory this morning, while...
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