Research

Good morning. As tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, active Brent crude oil prices have approached the $90 per barrel level. Investors will be closely monitoring how long this process persists and where oil prices ultimately find equilibrium, as higher energy prices are likely to weigh negatively on both global growth and inflation expectations. In addition, it is worth noting that...
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* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for July @ 10:00 local time. The CBT's latest June 2026 Market Participants Survey showed that respondents' year-end CPI expectation for 2026 edged up to 29.1% from 28.9%, while the year-end inflation forecast for 2027 increased to 21.4% from 21.1%. In today's July survey, market attention will primarily focus on expectations...
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Good morning. Global risk sentiment is negative this morning. Geopolitical tensions escalated again after Iran announced over the weekend that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. continued its military strikes against Iran. Although the U.S. stated that it does not recognize Iran's decision and that the strait remains open to vessels engaged in lawful transit, the market's focus...
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Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated. However, after front-month Brent crude oil futures tested the $80 level two days ago, prices have eased back to around $76. U.S. and European equity futures are broadly flat this morning following yesterday’s gains, while Asian markets are trading firmly higher across the region. A notable development comes from UBS, which has upgraded its outlook...
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Macro and Politics * TURKSTAT will release May industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. An analysis of the foreign trade data, which provide important signals regarding industrial production, suggests that the trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy points to a loss of momentum in industrial production in May. In addition, we expect the bridge-day effect associated with...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 29 – July 3 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 29 – July 3 period, gross FX reserves increased by USD10.7bn to USD159.9bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10bn to USD55.3bn. We expect...
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Good morning. Following Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels, the United States launched airstrikes against nearly 80 targets inside Iran. In addition, the U.S. withdrew its exemption decision regarding Iranian oil exports. These developments pushed oil prices higher while weighing on global equity markets. However, U.S. and European equity futures are only marginally lower this morning, while Asian markets...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL190.3bn, including non-competitive sales of TL105.7bn, through yesterday’s auctions of a 4y TLREF-indexed bond and a 5y fixed-coupon bond. At the new issuance of the 4y TLREF-indexed bond maturing on July 3, 2030, the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.93x, while the periodic interest rate came in at 20.45%. Meanwhile, the reissue of the 5y...
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