Research

Good morning. The weight of the geopolitical agenda, which intensified following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, continues to dominate global markets. Most recently, U.S. President Trump turned his attention once again to Greenland, a territory belonging to another NATO member, Denmark, stating that all options, including military ones, remain on the table. Europe’s discomfort over this issue persists, and...
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* The real effective exchange rate (REER) declined broadly in line with our house expectation in December, falling to 71.1 and implying nearly 1% real depreciation. The decline was primarily driven by the nominal exchange rate increasing at a faster pace than consumer price inflation. As a result, the Turkish lira recorded a second consecutive month of real depreciation against its equally weighted currency...
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Good morning. The global outlook continues to remain in positive territory. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equity markets, are broadly trading higher again this morning. Although the U.S. intervention in Venezuela has triggered geopolitical activity on a global scale, markets appear to be largely unaffected from a negative standpoint. Regarding optimistic expectations that Venezuelan oil could re-enter...
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* The Treasury will hold 5y fixed coupon bond auction as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL77.8bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 12m G-bond and 4y FRN bond auctions. The FRN auction drew exceptionally strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 8.06x and a term rate of 19.49%. In the 12m G-bond auction, the...
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Good morning. Global markets are starting the new week with the backdrop of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela; however, equity markets are broadly maintaining a positive tone. Despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s contribution to global supply has fallen below 1% in recent years. Therefore, following the U.S. intervention, a contraction in oil supply is not anticipated; on the...
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* TURKSTAT will release December inflation data today @ 10:00 local time. We expect December CPI to rise by 0.8% m/m, slightly below the market consensus of around 1%. In case of the monthly realization to align with our forecast, year-end inflation for 2025 would decline to 30.8%. We project annual CPI to stand at 23% by end-2026. Our forecast is built on the assumption that, following the removal of excess...
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We held an analyst meeting with Lila Paper’s Investor Relations team. During the meeting, recent developments regarding the company’s current operations were discussed, along with investments and strategic priorities expected to contribute to growth in the medium to long...
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Tüpraş announced its December product margins. Accordingly, within middle distillates, the diesel margin declined by 36% month-on-month, while the jet fuel margin fell by 23%. Among light distillates, the gasoline margin decreased by 26% compared to the previous month, and the fuel oil margin came in at -14.5 $/bbl. For Tüpraş, which is in our model portfolio, we maintain our 271.00 TL target price and “BUY”...
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