Research

Good morning. Global markets are starting the new day with a balanced outlook. U.S. and European futures are slightly in negative territory, while Asian equity markets are seeing gains. Yesterday, the significantly lower-than-expected U.S. private sector employment data led to a renewed shift forward in expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, we do not anticipate this repricing to be sustained. Additionally,...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of May 23 – 30 @ 12:00 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of May 23 – 30, net international reserves increased by USD1.5bn to USD49.4bn, while gross FX reserves edged up by USD186mn to USD153.5bn. We anticipate...
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*The CBT will release May Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for May, we expect the REER to ease from 72.12 to 71.77, implying a 0.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. In case the REER declines by 0.5% in May, in line with our calculations, the Turkish lira’s cumulative real depreciation over the past three months would...
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Good morning. News flow suggesting that the U.S.–China negotiations may progress at the leadership level is supporting buying activity in Asian equity markets this morning. U.S. futures are trading in negative territory, while European futures are slightly positive. In Borsa Istanbul, there was only a marginal pullback yesterday; however, a notable capital inflow was observed among active institutional players....
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* TURKSTAT will release the May inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We forecast a monthly CPI increase of 2.1% for May, in line with the market consensus, which would bring the annual inflation rate to 36.2% from the previous month’s 37.9%. We continue to project year-end inflation at 31%. * Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.3 to 47.2 in May, marking the lowest...
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Tüpraş announced its product margins for May. Accordingly, among middle distillate products, diesel margin improved by 17% MoM to $16.8/bbl, while jet fuel margin rose by 12% MoM to $16.2/bbl. Among light distillate products, gasoline margin increased by 41% MoM to $18.6/bbl, while fuel oil margin was recorded at negative $3.6/bbl. All product margins improved on a monthly basis. Although year-on-year declines were...
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Good morning. The recent statement by U.S. President Trump regarding the potential increase in tariffs on steel products from 25% to 50% is once again dampening global risk appetite. This morning, U.S. and European equity futures, along with open Asian markets, are trading in negative territory. We anticipate that the negative momentum carried over from last week will persist as Borsa Istanbul kicks off the new...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey May Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 47.3 in April, holding at its lowest level since October. Persistently below the 50-threshold since March 2024, the PMI continues to signal a sustained slowdown in manufacturing sector activity. Following an average of 47.73 in...
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