Research

Good morning. A thin year-end trading environment with limited market participation continues to prevail across global equity markets. Signals in the Fed minutes suggesting a period of pause following the December rate cut have played a key role in the loss of momentum, as markets now price the next initial rate cut for June 2026. That said, liquidity injections into the financial system via bond purchases are...
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* TURKSTAT will release November foreign trade figures @ 10:00 local time. The Ministry of Trade’s preliminary figures point to a modest widening in the foreign trade deficit in November. According to the preliminary figures, exports increased by 2.2% y/y to USD22.7bn, while imports rose by 2.6% y/y to USD30.5bn in November. Accordingly, the monthly trade deficit widened slightly to USD7.8bn in November, up from...
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Global equity markets are displaying a weaker tone this morning. The softness is driven by limited news flow, declining year-end market participation, and partial profit-taking from peak levels. In Borsa Istanbul, we saw a more pronounced pullback relative to global peers, with the index closing yesterday at 11,150. While the banking sector remained broadly resilient, selling pressure was more evident across...
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According to BDDK data for November 2025, the improvement in net interest margins in the banking sector, which began in August following the interest rate cuts initiated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in July, continued for the fourth consecutive month. For the past seven months, credit growth has remained below deposit growth on an annual basis. Although it continued at a very limited pace in the eighth...
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Good morning. Trading activity in global markets remains thin and range-bound amid year-end conditions. This effect is more pronounced in U.S. markets. In contrast, European futures and Asian equities have started the new week with relatively stronger risk appetite. In Borsa Istanbul, despite strong fund inflows and increased trading volume on Friday, the BIST 100 Index underperformed as inflows were largely...
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* The CBT has published its 2026 Monetary Policy framework, reaffirming price stability as the primary objective. Within the 5% inflation target (±2pp uncertainty band), the Bank underscores that monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be conducted within a framework in which the policy rate remains the main instrument, supported by interim targets and a published forecast path, and reinforced by macroprudential...
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As we enter 2026, we are removing Teknosa from our Model Portfolio following a review and redesign, and adding Sabancı Holding, Astor and MLP Care instead. The following companies remain in our Model Portfolio: Turkish Airlines, Coca-Cola Beverages, Ford Otomotiv, Mavi Giyim, Migros, TAV Airports, Turkcell, Tüpraş, Garanti and Isbank. Please note that we track all companies in our Model Portfolio equally...
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As we enter 2026, we are optimistic that central banks will continue to cut interest rates and that growth forecasts will be revised upwards. Although global investment themes are based on the depreciation of the dollar, concerns about the US's tendency to raise tariff barriers have eased. In Europe, meanwhile, support for regional economies through increased defence spending is growing. In Asia, however, we...
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