Research

Good morning. US President Trump’s decision to extend the 48-hour deadline given to Iran by another five days provided some relief to global markets. Following the announcement, Brent crude oil prices fell from USD 110 to as low as USD 93, while global equities saw notable buying interest. However, with the Iranian side stating that no talks have taken place and it becoming clear that the war environment is set to...
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*The CBT will release the March Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by 2.5 points m/m to 104.1 in February, while the seasonally adjusted index rose by 1.1 points to the same level. Remaining comfortably above the 100 threshold, the index continues to signal an improvement in real sector confidence...
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Good morning. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The 48-hour deadline given by the US to Iran, along with mutual threats to strike energy infrastructure, is weakening the view that the conflict could come to an end in a short period of time. As oil prices remain in the USD 105–110/bbl range, we also observe that global equities continue to trade under significant pressure. Following the sharp sell-off...
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* TURKSTAT will release March Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index rose to 85.7 in February from 83.7 in the previous month. Please recall that the index had averaged 83.9 in 3Q25 and remained broadly unchanged at 84 on average in 4Q25, pointing to a prolonged period of subdued sentiment toward year-end. A breakdown of the February data shows that the index tracking financial...
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Good morning. The strike on the gas fields jointly used by Iran and Qatar in the Persian Gulf is leading to a renewed increase in energy costs. Brent crude, which had moved below USD 100 following the reopening of the Iraq–Türkiye oil pipeline, is now heading toward USD 110 in the wake of the latest developments. Following yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. and European equities, futures are also in negative territory...
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* The CBT will release its international reserves and FX liquidity data for the week of 6–13 March today at 12:00 local time. Our calculations based on the analytical balance sheet suggest that the decline in reserves has continued, albeit at a slower pace compared to the first week of the conflict. Accordingly, we estimate that gross FX reserves fell by a further USD8bn to below USD190bn, while net FX reserves...
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MLP Care reported TL 14,164mn in revenue and TL 4,418mn in EBITDA in 4Q25, exceeding expectations by 1% and 3%, respectively. Net profit, however, stood at TL 1,284mn, 11% below the market expectation. While the strong improvement in EBITDA margin stood out in the final quarter, the weakness in net profit was largely driven by non-operating items and the tax burden. We assess the results positively. Accordingly, we...
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We view Mavi’s 4Q25 results as neutral. The company reported TL11.9 billion in revenue, TL1.9 billion in EBITDA, and a net loss of TL60 million in the quarter. While revenue was flat year-on-year, EBITDA margin improved from 12.8% to 16.0% thanks to strong cost discipline. Nevertheless, a TL208 million monetary loss and a TL422 million deferred tax expense weighed on net profit. For full-year 2025, revenue declined...
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