Research

Good morning. Global risk appetite is showing a partial recovery, but there is not yet a meaningful move away from risky territory. U.S. and European futures are in positive territory this morning, while Asia is showing a mixed picture. Domestically, MSCI's suspension of index updates regarding Turkish companies and its announcement that it will be in a monitoring process until June 2027 stand out. Since...
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* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for October @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s September 2026 Survey of Market Participants, respondents revised their year-end CPI inflation expectations upward to 29.6% from 29.4% for 2026 and to 22.7% from 21.9% for 2027. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation remained unchanged at 23.7%, while the 24-month-ahead expectation edged...
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Good morning. While the disappointment created by higher-than-expected inflation in the U.S. brought selling to equity markets, U.S. Treasuries also saw partial buying. While the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to around 5.10%, gold prices reacted to the upside, whereas silver prices remained at the level they had fallen to after sharp selling. Looking at this morning, U.S. and European futures and Asian markets...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL467.2bn in September, alongside a primary cash deficit of TL193.3bn. This brought the cumulative Treasury cash deficit to TL1.9tn in Jan–Sep, while the primary cash balance recorded a surplus of TL312.5bn over the same period. We expect today's figures...
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Good morning. The tension between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. signaling that it may intervene in the region after the midterm elections, are causing oil prices to rise again. U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, are following a flat course around 5.20%. New York Fed President Williams said that there could be one more rate hike before the end of this year, but that rates could remain unchanged...
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* The current account posted a surplus of USD4.05bn in August, slightly below our forecast of USD4.4bn, while standing above the market median expectation of USD3.5bn. The cumulative current account deficit for Jan–Aug reached USD31.5bn, widening significantly from USD19.7bn in the same period last year. On a trailing 12-month basis, the current account deficit increased to USD42.1bn from USD41.5bn in July....
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Good morning. A renewed rise in geopolitical risks is pushing Brent crude oil prices to the USD 103 – 104 band. U.S. bond markets were closed yesterday; trading resumed today, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is following a calm course around 5.20%. In Europe, ongoing budget concerns are still unsettling, and the upward trend in bond yields, particularly in France, continues. Although the spread between French...
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*The CBT will release August Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a surplus of USD4.4bn in August. Our projections point to a narrowing in the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to USD2bn, with net travel revenues exceeding USD7bn and the services surplus reaching around USD9.5bn. We maintain our year-end current account deficit forecast at...
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