Research

Good morning. Following the Christmas holidays, the market sentiment abroad appears positive, while domestically, momentum has regained after the minimum wage increase, which is viewed as supportive in the fight against inflation. Due to limited foreign participation, yesterday saw one of the lowest trading volumes of the year; however, the BIST 100 index's close above the 9,910 interim resistance level is a...
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* We anticipate the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to initiate rate cuts with a 150bps reduction at today’s rate-setting, in line with the market consensus. The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time. However, the CBRT has recently published its Monetary Policy for 2025 document and stated that in 2025, the MPC will hold 8 meetings instead of 12. Following the announcement of fewer meetings for the...
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We updated our Model Portfolio by 2025 Outlook Report. Our Model Portfolio, which we launched in June 2023, has generated a 159% nominal return in TRY over the past year and a half, outperforming the BIST 100 index, which has increased by 80% in TRY during this period. Accordingly, Model Portfolio's index relative performance indicates a 44% positive return. While adding İş Bankası, Yapı Kredi Bank, TAV...
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Good morning. The minimum wage increase was announced at a level in line with market expectations, non-inflationary, and unlikely to create obstacles for the interest rate cut cycle by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). With the resolution of a significant uncertainty that has been pressuring Borsa Istanbul for the past two weeks and strengthened expectations regarding the interest rate cut cycle, we expect a...
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* The CBRT will release December Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) eased to 100.4 level from 100.9 as of November, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased to 103.4 from 102.2. In addition, the unadjusted Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) edged up to 76.1% from 74.9%, while the adjusted CUR rose to 75.6% from 75.2% level as...
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2025 Outlook - Another Year of Riddles We begin 2025 under the shadow of numerous uncertainties. The policies to be implemented during the Trump 2.0 era in the US and their global impacts are expected to leave a significant mark on the year. In Turkey, key macroeconomic developments such as the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Turkey, growth performance, management of external financing needs, and...
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Good morning. While the U.S. markets closed in positive territory yesterday, futures are flat this morning. In Europe, markets will remain closed today due to the Christmas holiday. In Asia, the sentiment is mixed but predominantly positive on average. The weak outlook in Borsa Istanbul persists. After approaching 10,300 on December 9 with expectations of Syria's reconstruction, the BIST 100 index has since...
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* Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 13 – 20, the net international reserves dropped by USD3.7bn to USD61.7bn and the gross FX reserves slumped by USD7.2bn to USD156.4bn. The official data for the CBRT’s international reserves will be announced on Thursday at 14:30 local...
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