Research

Tüpraş announced its November product margins. Accordingly, within middle distillate products, diesel margins improved by 38% month-on-month, while jet fuel margins increased by 26%. Among light distillates, the gasoline margin rose by 29% compared to the previous month, while the fuel oil margin was recorded at minus USD 9.3 per barrel. For Tüpraş, which is included in our model portfolio, we have a target price...
Read More

Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the week on a soft footing. There is no single dominant driver behind the move; weaker data out of Asia or protracted Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations can be cited as headline factors. After pricing in rate-cut expectations from the Fed throughout last week, equities are entering the new week with profit-taking. U.S. and European futures are trading in negative...
Read More

Good morning. Despite U.S. markets being closed due to Thanksgiving, expectations of a rate cut from the Fed on December 10 continue to underpin global risk appetite. Borsa Istanbul is attempting to align with this constructive tone, though upward momentum remains constrained. The BIST 100 Index advanced 0.28% yesterday, with ISCTR, ENKAI, TAVHL, TUPRS and YKBNK delivering the strongest positive contributions,...
Read More

* October Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment remained unchanged at 8.6% in September, while the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment– decreased from 29.8% to 28.6%. Moreover, within the components, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment edged...
Read More

Good morning. While expectations for Fed rate cuts remain intact, the rebound observed in U.S. equities over the past four sessions has only now been sufficient to break above last week’s post-Nvidia-earnings highs. U.S. markets will be closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday; tomorrow, trading will open in the morning but close early for a half-day session. European futures and Asian markets are once again...
Read More

* The CBT Governor Karahan spoke yesterday in a live broadcast on “Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Outlook” outlining the Bank’s policy stance, the ongoing rebalancing in domestic demand, and the disinflation process. He noted that the more than USD80bn increase in gross reserves has largely reflected resident FX conversions and highlighted the sharp decline in FX-protected deposits (KKM). Reaffirming price...
Read More

Good morning. As expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to strengthen, the discussion around who will lead the Fed after Chair Powell is increasingly gaining traction. The common thread among the prominent candidates is their alignment with President Trump’s calls for rate reductions. Accordingly, we expect both the timeline for rate-cut expectations to be pulled forward and the total anticipated cuts over the...
Read More

* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real...
Read More