Research

Good morning. Global risk appetite remains broadly positive. U.S. and European equity futures are trading in the green, while the outlook in Asia is more neutral. Borsa Istanbul rose by 2.5% yesterday, supported by strong capital inflows. We expect the renewed positive momentum to carry the index toward the 10,450 / 10,500 resistance zone. According to data released by Borsa Istanbul, there was a net foreign inflow...
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Good morning. The tension escalated after Israel struck the Presidential Palace and the General Staff Headquarters in Damascus, the capital of Syria, but it is now easing with reports that a ceasefire has been reached in the city of Suwayda and that units affiliated with the Syrian army have withdrawn. However, this development, which serves as a reminder of geopolitical risks, is likely to keep markets cautious...
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Good morning. In the U.S., CPI data exceeded expectations, while underlying components of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — also showed notable increases. As a result, market pricing for a potential first rate cut by the Fed in October has diminished. However, political pressure from President Trump on Fed Chair Powell continues to intensify. This...
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Good morning. The week begins with rising tensions between the U.S. and the EU over customs tariffs. The U.S. announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective from August 1st, and the EU's signals of potential retaliation are creating stress in global markets. Additionally, ongoing calls from the U.S. administration for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation and threats of his removal are...
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Good morning. Despite the gains observed yesterday in the U.S. and European markets, global risk appetite is losing momentum this morning. The announcement by the U.S. to impose a 35% tariff on Canada, coupled with President Trump’s remarks suggesting that general tariffs of 15%–20% could be applied to countries that did not receive formal notification, have reignited trade-related concerns. Turning to Borsa...
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*The CBT will release May Balance of Payment figures today @ 10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a deficit of USD616mn. Based on foreign trade data, we expect the trade deficit to narrow significantly in May, declining from around USD10bn to approximately USD4bn. In addition, we anticipate that the net tourism income will rise toward USD4.5bn, pushing the services surplus above...
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Good morning. The minutes from the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting revealed more clearly the divergence of views among committee members regarding interest rate cuts and inflation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump intensified his calls for rate cuts, raising his demand to 300 basis points. The trade tariff agenda appears to be heating up again. In addition to the letters sent to 14 countries earlier this week, it was...
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* TURKSTAT will release May Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. A brief look at the leading indicators for May's industrial output reveals the following: In May, intermediate goods imports (excluding gold and energy) declined by 3% on a monthly basis, while posting a 2.6% increase y/y. Besides, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 47.3...
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