Research

Good morning. Following the partial easing of Iran-related tensions and messages from the U.S., we observe that geopolitical risk perception has moderated to some extent, leading to a 4% pullback in oil prices from the recent peaks. On the equity side, market conditions remain broadly range-bound. Aside from the sell-off in U.S. technology stocks yesterday, the overall tone in U.S. markets was relatively calm. This...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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Good morning. While protests and security interventions in Iran have led to a dramatic rise in casualties, statements from the US, the EU, and other parties that risk further escalation continue to come to the fore. Alongside these developments, oil prices have increased by 9% over the past week, returning to their highest levels of the last three months and gradually amplifying inflationary risks. Beyond the...
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* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
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Good morning. We are starting the day with U.S. President Trump’s statement announcing a “25% additional tariff on countries doing business with Iran.” This development should be interpreted less in terms of its direct economic impact and more as a signal of increased pressure on Iran and the continuation of geopolitical stress. Global markets are relatively calm this morning: U.S. futures are slightly negative,...
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*The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 10y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. In yesterday’s auctions, covering a 2y fixed-coupon bond and a 5y CPI-linked bond, the Treasury raised TL78.3bn, including non-competitive sales. Demand at the 2y fixed-coupon auction was robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield settled at 36.87%. Despite a relatively...
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Good morning. Global markets are starting the new week following reports of a criminal subpoena issued by the U.S. Department of Justice to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The subpoena, arriving at a time when concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and broader questions regarding the functioning of institutional structures and the constitutional system are intensifying, together with Powell’s subsequent...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is hovering in mildly positive territory this morning. Despite supportive developments such as the USD 200 billion support package announced for the U.S. housing sector, upward revisions to growth forecasts, and rate-cut signaling from Fed officials, U.S. equity futures are trading flat. European futures and Asian equity markets, on the other hand, are generally in positive...
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