Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As the United States clarifies its country-specific customs practices, market concerns around tariffs are currently balanced. Yesterday, the U.S. announced new customs duties ranging between 25% and 40% on 14 additional countries, separate from previously announced sectoral tariffs. These new rates will come into effect as of August 1. U.S. equity futures are showing a mixed outlook this morning, while European futures are slightly negative and Asian markets are generally on the positive side. Following a sharp rally in Borsa Istanbul from 9,300 to 10,300 within a week, the index has pulled back to 10,100 amid rising political tensions. Capital outflows remain limited, while upward revisions to target prices in the banking sector have been notable during this period. We believe the sentiment towards banks will continue to improve, supported by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the decline in Turkey’s CDS spreads. In addition, market participants may start to form clearer expectations regarding 2Q25 earnings in the coming period, though the focus will likely remain on how the anticipated easing in interest rates could impact financials later in the year. As long as expectations for a rate cut from the MPC persist, we believe the BIST 100 Index will continue to hold above the 9,800 / 10,000 support zone. Maintaining levels above this range would keep the $270 and $297 resistance levels (corresponding to 10,800 and subsequently the 11,500 / 12,000 TL range) as the near-term targets. Today’s agenda is relatively light. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 288 basis points.