All Newsletters

We raise our 12-month target price to TL 352.00 from TL 271.00 and maintain our BUY recommendation. The main reason for the revision is not Brent itself, but the strengthening in middle-distillate margins (diesel and jet fuel), which has improved the outlook for net refining margins. Accordingly, we have revised our 2026 EBITDA forecast upward by 61%. Based on our updated estimates, the stock is trading at 7.1x...
Read More

Good morning. The news flow regarding the war environment appears to be relatively calmer. Reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol for the joint control of traffic and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz are drawing attention. However, the reported strike on a bridge under construction in Iran, and Iran’s response by sharing a list of bridges in other countries across the region,...
Read More

* TURKSTAT will release the March inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 2.1% in March, while the market median stands slightly above our house forecast at 2.3%. A realization in line wbith our forecast would imply a modest easing in annual CPI to 31.1% from 31.5%. Despite the sharp increase in global energy prices following the US – Iran conflict, the impact of...
Read More

Good morning. In his national address, U.S. President Trump said that operations against Iran could come to an end within 2–3 weeks. However, his remark that attacks on infrastructure facilities could intensify has pushed oil prices back toward the USD 105–110 range and is weighing on markets this morning, following yesterday’s positive close in U.S. and European equities. Asian markets are also posting notable...
Read More

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 20 – 27 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that the net FX reserves slumped by USD22.1bn to USD35.2bn in the week of March 20 – 27, while gross FX reserves tumbled by USD22bn to USD155.6bn. We expect today’s...
Read More

Tüpraş announced its product margins for March. Accordingly, among middle distillates, the diesel margin increased by 153% month-on-month, while the jet fuel margin posted a strong 256% monthly increase. Among light distillates, the gasoline margin rose by 20% compared to the previous month, while the fuel oil margin stood at negative $14.1/bbl. We maintain our 12-month target price of TL271.00 and BUY...
Read More

Good morning. The perception that Middle East-focused tensions may be approaching an end is supporting global markets. Yesterday, remarks from U.S. President Trump drew attention, suggesting that the war could come to an end within 2–3 weeks even in the absence of any ceasefire or peace agreement. At the same time, we continue to follow reports that troop deployments are ongoing and that a third U.S. aircraft...
Read More

*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey March Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in February from 48.1, marking its highest level since April 2024. According to the ICI release, the decline in new orders moderated to its softest pace in nearly two years, supported by emerging signs of improvement in customer demand....
Read More