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Good morning. Comments from U.S. President Trump suggesting that “an agreement with Iran could be reached soon,” along with reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, are supportive for market sentiment. However, U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equities, remain weak this morning. Should the decline in oil prices continue, global risk appetite may improve further. In Borsa Istanbul, despite...
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* April Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined from 8.4% to 8.1% in March, while the broader underutilization measure that we closely monitor – the composite rate of labor underutilization comprising time-related underemployment, the potential labor force, and unemployment – rose markedly from 29.9% to 31.5%, reaching its highest level since June...
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Good morning. Although global risk appetite has moderated somewhat this morning, it remains in positive territory. Futures on major U.S. and European equity indices are slightly lower, while sectoral indices and most Asian markets—excluding Japan—are trading higher overall. Oil prices are up by approximately 0.5%–1.0% compared to yesterday, supported by the continuation of low-intensity, targeted operations between...
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* The CBT will release weekly portfolio flows and money & banking statistics for the period of May 15 – 22 at 14:30 local time today. Under normal circumstances, these data would have been published last Thursday; however, the release was postponed to today due to the Eid holiday. The CBT’s reserve statistics for the same week have already been released. Accordingly, during the week of May 15 – 22, the CBT’s...
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Tüpraş announced its May product margins. Among middle distillates, the diesel margin declined 13% m/m and the jet fuel margin declined 26%. Among light distillates, the gasoline margin rose 210% versus the prior month, while the fuel oil margin came in at -$17.6/bbl. For Tüpraş, which is included in our model portfolio, we maintain a target price of TL352.00 and a Buy...
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Good morning. Mixed news flow regarding the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and daily fluctuations exceeding 5% in oil prices continue to fuel volatility across global equity markets. At the current juncture, front-month Brent crude oil futures appear to be seeking equilibrium around USD 93 per barrel. U.S. equity futures are trading in negative territory, European futures are pointing higher, while Asian...
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* The Turkish economy expanded by 0.1% q/q and 2.5% y/y in 1Q26. Both our forecast and the market median had pointed to annual growth of 2.7%. While the services sector remained the primary driver of growth, the sequential slowdown in both private consumption and investment spending signaled a loss of momentum in economic activity. On the expenditure side, household consumption increased by a modest 0.1% q/q, while...
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Good morning. During the period when our market was closed, the possibility of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran came to the forefront, weighing on oil prices while supporting global equity markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained more than 5% during the holiday period, while Brent crude oil futures declined to as low as USD 90 per barrel before rebounding toward USD 93 this morning following reports of...
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