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Good morning. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the volume of oil shipments from the region continue to increase. Although diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran are progressing with occasional setbacks, the approval by the U.S. Senate of legislation aimed at reducing the likelihood of renewed military confrontation is helping to ease geopolitical tensions. On the other hand,...
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Good morning. As geopolitical tensions continue to ease, oil prices are also extending their decline. Meanwhile, expectations for Fed rate hikes are being brought forward, with market participants increasingly pricing in a series of rate increases beginning as early as September or October. This outlook is weighing on U.S. technology stocks as well as precious metals such as gold and silver. In the U.S., the Dow...
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Good morning. The U.S.–Iran negotiations have begun in Switzerland; however, mutual threats and tensions continue. Geopolitical risks are likely to remain elevated, but markets may find some relief as long as there are no reports of direct military confrontation in the region and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues uninterrupted. U.S. and European futures are starting the new week in negative...
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* TURKSTAT will release June Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index edged up from 85.5 to 85.8 in May, reaching its highest level since March 2025. Looking at the sub-components, the index measuring households’ current financial situation declined from 71.8 to 69.2, while the sub-index reflecting expectations for households’ financial situation over the next 12 months increased...
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Good morning. Despite easing geopolitical risks and the decline in oil prices, global equity markets are under pressure this morning as expectations for Fed rate hikes have been brought forward and growth forecasts have been revised downward. U.S. equity markets will be closed today; however, futures contracts are trading this morning and remain in negative territory. European futures and Asian markets are also...
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*The CBT will release the June Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) rose by 2.7 points in May to 103.3, reaching its highest level since February. The seasonally adjusted index also increased by 2.4 points to 101, moving back above the critical 100 threshold. Please recall that the seasonally adjusted RSCI had...
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Good morning. As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, both the policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks were significantly more hawkish than anticipated. While the Fed revised its inflation projections upward, growth forecasts were adjusted slightly lower. The updated rate projections from Fed members also revealed notable upward revisions. Although a...
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