Daily Macro News

* TURKSTAT will release the March inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 2.1% in March, while the market median stands slightly above our house forecast at 2.3%. A realization in line wbith our forecast would imply a modest easing in annual CPI to 31.1% from 31.5%. Despite the sharp increase in global energy prices following the US – Iran conflict, the impact of...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 20 – 27 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that the net FX reserves slumped by USD22.1bn to USD35.2bn in the week of March 20 – 27, while gross FX reserves tumbled by USD22bn to USD155.6bn. We expect today’s...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey March Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in February from 48.1, marking its highest level since April 2024. According to the ICI release, the decline in new orders moderated to its softest pace in nearly two years, supported by emerging signs of improvement in customer demand....
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* The CBT has introduced additional macroprudential measures aimed at tightening control over credit growth, according to a Bloomberg HT report based on letters sent by the CBT to banks on March 27. Accordingly, reserve requirement (RR) exemptions previously granted to earthquake-related lending and certain commercial loans have been removed. Under the new framework, loans extended to regions affected by the...
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* TURKSTAT will release March Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index rose to 100.7 in February from 99.4 in the previous month, surpassing the 100 threshold for the first time since March 2025. Please note that a reading above 100 signals that sentiment regarding the overall economic outlook has shifted back into optimistic territory. A breakdown of the sub-components shows a...
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* Foreign investors recorded net sales of USD137.6mn in equities and USD130.1mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of March 13–19. Accordingly, foreign outflows from the bond market extended into a fifth consecutive week, bringing the cumulative outflow over this period (ex-repo) to USD5.9bn. Meanwhile, the foreign share in the total government bond stock edged down to 6.7% from 6.9%. That...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 13 – 19 @ 14:30 local time. Our calculations based on the CBT analytical balance sheet suggest that the decline in reserves persisted into the following week. In the shortened week of March 13–19 due to the holiday period, we estimate that gross FX reserves slid by a further...
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* The CBT will release the March Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the February survey, the 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation declined marginally for market participants by 0.1pp to 22.1% and fell by a more pronounced 0.9pp to 32% for the real sector. Household expectations remained unchanged at 48.81%. While the overall trend has been downward since early 2024,...
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