Daily Macro News

* TURKSTAT will release March foreign trade figures @ 10:00 local time. Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade point to a further widening in the trade deficit. According to the preliminary figures, exports declined by 6.4% y/y to USD21.9bn, while imports increased by 8.4% y/y to USD33.2bn. Accordingly, the trade deficit widened to USD11.3bn in March from USD9bn in February, while the rolling annual...
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* March Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 8.2% to 8.5% in February, while the broader underutilization measure that we closely monitor – the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – rose a tad from 29.8% to 29.9%. A breakdown of the components...
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* We estimate that CBT reserves, which had been on an upward trajectory over the past two weeks, turned lower again last week. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of April 17 – 24, gross FX reserves fell by USD3.3bn to USD171.3bn, while net FX reserves declined by USD4.1bn to USD54.2bn. We expect the official reserve data to be released on Thursday...
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* Foreign investors recorded net inflows of USD579.4mn into the equity market and USD243mn into the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of April 10 – 17. This marked the second consecutive week of foreign inflows into the bond market, while foreigners’ share in the total government bond stock increased from 5.8% to 5.9% in the week of April 10 – 17. In the eurobond market, foreign investors were...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 10 – 17 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross FX reserves rose by USD3.5bn over the April 10 – 17 week to USD174.4bn, while net FX reserves increased by close to USD4bn to USD59.5bn. We further...
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* TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index declined to 85 in March from 85.7, bringing the first-quarter 2026 average to 84.8, up modestly from an average of 84 in the final quarter of 2025. A breakdown of the sub-components suggests a mixed picture: the index tracking households’ current financial conditions improved to 72.8 from 71.3, while...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for the month. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the 3-month period covering April – June 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL480.1bn in domestic borrowing against TL505.4bn in redemptions in April, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. Having already raised TL351.3bn since the beginning of...
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* The credit rating agency S&P affirmed Türkiye’s sovereign ratings at BB-/B with a stable outlook. The agency assesses that, provided the current policy mix is maintained, the economy should be able to navigate the ongoing energy price shock, emphasizing that tight monetary policy and discipline in wage-setting remain critical. S&P’s baseline assumes a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle...
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