Research

Good morning. While concerns that the U.S. may intervene in Iran over the weekend are being priced in, a statement from the White House suggesting that “a decision on military intervention against Iran will be made within two weeks” is providing some relief to global equity markets. These remarks may be tactical in nature and should not be interpreted as a guarantee of non-aggression for two weeks; nevertheless,...
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* In the week of June 6 – 13, foreigners registered a net purchase of USD475mn in equities and USD580mn in government bonds (excluding repo transactions). This marked the ninth consecutive week of foreign inflows into the equity market, while the bond market saw a return to net foreign buying following two weeks of outflows. As a result, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock edged up from 4.8% to 5.1% within...
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Good morning. We start the day with two key headlines. The first is the outcome of the Fed meeting concluded last night: as expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged; however, it revised inflation forecasts upward and growth forecasts downward. Additionally, stronger emphasis was placed on rising uncertainties and inflation risks in the upcoming period. The second topic is the ongoing Iran–Israel tension,...
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* We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave the policy rate unchanged at 46% at today’s rate-setting, while lowering the upper bound of the interest rate corridor from 49% to 47.5%, thereby restoring corridor symmetry. The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time today. The CBT has already performed an effective rate cut of 300 bps through increasing the size of its weekly repo auctions and...
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We attended Orge Elektrik’s (ORGE) analyst meeting held on June 16 to evaluate the company's 1Q25 financials and learn about its future...
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Good morning. Geopolitical tensions persist in global markets as the Iran–Israel conflict continues, with the U.S. currently involved at a verbal level but expected to become physically engaged in the near future. Ongoing threats, warnings, and missile attacks make it difficult to see strong buying appetite in equity markets, even if valuations appear attractive. The domestic outlook is no different; Borsa Istanbul...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL79bn from the domestic markets (including non-competitive sales) through yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions and finalized its domestic borrowing program for June. For the TLREF auction, the bid – to -cover ratio was weak at 1.62x and the term rate was 12.47%. Besides, for the fixed coupon auction, the bid – to – cover ratio stood at 4.21x, indicating robust...
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Good morning. Global markets continue to focus on geopolitical developments, with the Iran–Israel tension currently topping the agenda. Yesterday, news suggesting conciliatory signals from Iran had supported equity markets during the day; however, we later observed a renewed wave of selling. Unconfirmed reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz—where nearly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supply transits—and...
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