Research

We attended the analyst meeting held with the participation of Turkcell’s senior management and investor relations. In addition to the latest developments regarding the company’s current operations, the meeting covered strategic priorities as well as data center and cloud investments that are expected to contribute to growth in the medium to long...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release January cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit reached TL2.1tn in 2025. The central government budget deficit for the full year amounted to TL1.8tn, coming in below the TL2.2tn target set...
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Good morning. Global markets are focusing on the US–Iran negotiations. While the format, content, timing, and venue of the talks have remained a source of uncertainty and debate, the latest expectation is that they will take place tomorrow in Muscat, the capital of Oman. Precious metals are seeing renewed selling pressure this morning, with deeper losses particularly in silver and platinum. In equity markets,...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of January 23 – 30 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of January 23 – 30, the CBT’s gross FX reserves rose by USD2.6bn to USD218.3bn, reaching a new record high, while net international reserves...
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Good morning. In the US, selling pressure has emerged on technology stocks—particularly software, data analytics, and communication companies—amid concerns over the potential negative impact of AI-focused business models, while US futures are trading flat this morning. In Europe, reports indicating an increase in corporate credit demand ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision tomorrow are in focus, with European...
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*The CBT will release January Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for January, we expect the REER to increase from 71.1 to 73.5, implying a 3.5% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release January seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations,...
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Good morning. Following the sharp declines in precious metals, we have seen a recovery and rebound attempt over the past 24 hours, while global equity markets are also displaying a constructive tone. Yesterday, U.S. and European equity markets, which started the day with selling pressure, closed in positive territory, and buying interest continues this morning in index futures. Similarly, the overall picture in...
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* TURKSTAT will release January inflation data today @ 10:00 local time. We expect a notable acceleration in monthly inflation, primarily driven by food prices. Accordingly, we forecast headline CPI inflation to print at 4.13% m/m, with seasonally adjusted monthly CPI at 2.3%. An outcome in line with our forecast would bring annual CPI down from 30.9% to 29.8%, reflecting favorable base effects despite strong...
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