Research

Good morning. Global risk appetite is weakening this morning. While there is no clear trigger behind this move, the underperformance of recent expectations and the postponement of anticipated Fed rate cuts to later dates are contributing factors. On the other hand, yesterday’s stronger-than-expected employment data in the U.S., along with progress in the legislative process of a plan that includes tax cuts and...
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*The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to ease from 71.1 to 70.1, implying a 1.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release June seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite continues to remain on the positive side. Concrete progress in the United States’ trade negotiations with individual countries, alongside tax cuts and spending plans, has reinforced expectations that the pressure on the Fed will persist through year-end, likely culminating in rate cuts. This outlook is fueling buying activity across global equity markets, led by U.S. stock...
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* TURKSTAT will release the June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect CPI to rise by 1.38% m/m in June, lower than the median estimate at 1.5%. Should the monthly figure materialize in line with our forecast, annual inflation edge down from 35.4% to 35.1%. A monthly reading below 1.5%, aligned with our forecast, would likely fuel market expectations for a policy rate cut by the CBT. However, even...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new day on a positive note. A dense news flow is being monitored both in the U.S. and consequently in global markets, including: i) President Trump’s pressure on the Fed for interest rate cuts, ii) tax cuts and spending packages, iii) extensions and exemptions in trade negotiations. As expectations on these fronts mostly point to optimistic scenarios, the positive...
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* The state-run natural gas distributor Botas hiked the natural gas prices by 24.6% for residential use. The direct impact of the price increase on the CPI will be around 0.45pp. Considering the indirect effects, we anticipate a higher overall impact on headline. However, with the prevailing positive base effect, we expect the annual CPI to sustain its decline in July, potentially falling below 34%. * Istanbul...
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Tüpraş announced its product margins for June. Accordingly, among middle distillate products, the diesel margin improved by 18% month-on-month, while the jet fuel margin rose by 5%. Among light distillate products, the gasoline margin contracted by 9% compared to the previous month, and the fuel oil margin was recorded at negative USD 6.2 per barrel. We view the monthly improvements and the resilience of product...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite remains balanced. The U.S. equity markets are supported by a conciliatory stance on tariffs and the gradual legislative progress of tax reduction plans. This morning, U.S. futures are slightly negative, European futures are mildly positive, and Asian markets are displaying a mixed outlook. In Borsa Istanbul, the postponement of the CHP congress lawsuit to September 8 led to a...
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