Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite continues to remain on the positive side. Concrete progress in the United States’ trade negotiations with individual countries, alongside tax cuts and spending plans, has reinforced expectations that the pressure on the Fed will persist through year-end, likely culminating in rate cuts. This outlook is fueling buying activity across global equity markets, led by U.S. stock indices. In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index continues to hold above the 10,000 level, supported by sustained capital inflows and rising trading volumes. While the index has recorded its highest TL-based closings since March 19, it still appears to have further upside potential in USD terms. In this context, the USD-equivalent levels of $270 and $297 are notable. Based on current exchange rates, these correspond to BIST 100 index levels of approximately 10,800 and, subsequently, above 11,500. Assuming no escalation in non-economic (i.e., political or legal) risks and continued disinflation—supporting expectations of interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Committee—these levels could be monitored as short-term targets. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the 12-month target prices for BIST 100 companies currently point to a BIST 100 index target of around 13,600. It is worth recalling that this target was previously revised down from 14,400, reflecting a more cautious outlook in earlier periods. Looking ahead, we now expect gradual upward revisions to these targets. On today’s agenda, domestic attention will focus on June inflation data. The average market forecast for monthly CPI is 1.50%, while Tacirler Investment’s estimate stands at 1.38%. In the afternoon, U.S. employment data will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 283 basis points.