Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new day on a positive note. A dense news flow is being monitored both in the U.S. and consequently in global markets, including: i) President Trump’s pressure on the Fed for interest rate cuts, ii) tax cuts and spending packages, iii) extensions and exemptions in trade negotiations. As expectations on these fronts mostly point to optimistic scenarios, the positive trend in global markets remains intact. On Borsa Istanbul, following the CHP Congress Court ruling, the index moved above the 10,000 level with a strong close, supported by capital inflows and high trading volumes. This positive momentum could potentially carry the BIST 100 index toward the 10,250 level, and subsequently into the 10,350 / 10,400 resistance zone. Expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming July 24 CBRT MPC meeting persist, especially with inflation data set to be announced tomorrow. Market forecasts are largely concentrated around a 250–350 basis point rate cut. However, we also observe an increasing number of projections and hopes for even deeper cuts. These expectations continue to support Borsa Istanbul, where the 12-month target level for the BIST 100 index stands at approximately 13,600—implying a return potential of around 35%. Just two weeks ago, when the index had declined toward the 9,000 mark, this potential return was close to 50%. The recent rally has notably reduced that margin. However, if the CBRT initiates rate cuts, we could see upward revisions to these targets and a potential move toward the 14,000 level. Today's economic calendar is relatively light, but tomorrow will bring a busy data flow, including domestic inflation figures and U.S. employment data. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 284 basis points.