Daily Macro News

* Foreign investors recorded net sales of USD137.6mn in equities and USD130.1mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of March 13–19. Accordingly, foreign outflows from the bond market extended into a fifth consecutive week, bringing the cumulative outflow over this period (ex-repo) to USD5.9bn. Meanwhile, the foreign share in the total government bond stock edged down to 6.7% from 6.9%. That...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 13 – 19 @ 14:30 local time. Our calculations based on the CBT analytical balance sheet suggest that the decline in reserves persisted into the following week. In the shortened week of March 13–19 due to the holiday period, we estimate that gross FX reserves slid by a further...
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* The CBT will release the March Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the February survey, the 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation declined marginally for market participants by 0.1pp to 22.1% and fell by a more pronounced 0.9pp to 32% for the real sector. Household expectations remained unchanged at 48.81%. While the overall trend has been downward since early 2024,...
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*The CBT will release the March Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by 2.5 points m/m to 104.1 in February, while the seasonally adjusted index rose by 1.1 points to the same level. Remaining comfortably above the 100 threshold, the index continues to signal an improvement in real sector confidence...
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* TURKSTAT will release March Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index rose to 85.7 in February from 83.7 in the previous month. Please recall that the index had averaged 83.9 in 3Q25 and remained broadly unchanged at 84 on average in 4Q25, pointing to a prolonged period of subdued sentiment toward year-end. A breakdown of the February data shows that the index tracking financial...
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* The CBT will release its international reserves and FX liquidity data for the week of 6–13 March today at 12:00 local time. Our calculations based on the analytical balance sheet suggest that the decline in reserves has continued, albeit at a slower pace compared to the first week of the conflict. Accordingly, we estimate that gross FX reserves fell by a further USD8bn to below USD190bn, while net FX reserves...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL67.8bn including non-competitive sales amounting to TL42bn via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon bond and a 4yr TLREF-indexed bond auctions. Demand was strong in the fixed-coupon auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield came in at 39.99%. Demand also remained robust in the TLREF-inxeded bond auction, where the bid-to-cover...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for February @ 10:00 local time. The RPPI increased by 3.7% m/m and 27.7% y/y in January, rising to 211.8. Yet, in real terms, the index declined by 2.3% y/y. While the annual real change had briefly turned positive in November - registering a 0.2% increase for the first time since January 2024- it reverted to negative territory in December. The...
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