Daily Macro News

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release February cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The central government budget posted a deficit of TL214.5bn in January, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of TL241.8bn. Accordingly, the 12-month cumulative budget deficit edged up modestly from TL1.8tn to TL1.87tn, whereas the primary surplus widened markedly from TL255.3bn to TL473.4bn. The Treasury cash...
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*Following the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by escalating US–Iran tensions, a Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette introduced revisions to the échelle mobile tax mechanism applied to gasoline, diesel and LPG products. Under the new framework, if increases in international oil prices or exchange rates lead to a rise in domestic refinery gate prices, the Special Consumption Tax (SCT) applied to...
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*The CBT will release February Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for February, we expect the REER to increase from 102.17 to 103.6, implying a 1.4% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release February seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our...
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* TURKSTAT will release the February inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect CPI to increase by 2.9% m/m in February, in line with the market consensus. A print in line with our house estimates would lift annual inflation from 30.7% to 31.5%, implying a pause in the disinflation process during the month. The recent sharp increase in oil prices following the escalation in US–Iran tensions constitutes a...
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* TURKSTAT will release 4Q25 GDP figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect the Turkish economy to expand by around 4% y/y in the final quarter of 2025. Yet, we assess that risks to our projection are tilted to the downside. An outcome broadly in line with our baseline would imply full-year growth of 3.8% in 2025. However, in the event of a softer-than-anticipated performance, annual growth could moderate to the...
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* January Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell sharply in December, declining from 8.5% to 7.7% and reaching a record low. However, the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – registered only a modest improvement, edging down from 28.9% to 28.6% over...
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* TURKSTAT will release January foreign trade figures @ 10:00 local time. Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade point to a modest narrowing in the external trade deficit in January compared to the previous month. According to the flash data, exports declined by 3.9% y/y to USD20.3bn, while imports remained broadly flat, edging up by 0.03% y/y to USD28.7bn. As a result, the monthly trade deficit...
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* The CBT released the results of the February Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) survey. In addition, the results of the newly introduced Household Expectations Survey (HES), designed to measure households’ expectations regarding inflation, the exchange rate, housing prices, and investment tendencies, were published for the first time as of yesterday. As of this month, household 12-month-ahead consumer...
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