Daily Macro News

*The credit rating agency S&P is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. At its previous scheduled review back on October 25, S&P did not issue any...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for March @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 1.8% m/m and 26.4% y/y in February, reaching 215.5, while recording a 3.9% y/y decline in real terms. It’s worth noting that the annual real change in the RPPI had briefly turned positive in November at 0.2%, marking the first positive reading since January 2024,...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release March central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL279.6bn in March, while the primary balance recorded a shortfall of TL48.9bn. This brought the cumulative cash deficit to TL618.3bn in the first three months of the year. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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* The Treasury will hold direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond, a 2y gold-denominated bond, and a 2y gold-denominated lease certificate today. The Treasury sold TL24.1bn at the direct sale of 2-year lease certificate yesterday, bringing total domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month to TL157.7bn. Following today’s direct sales, the Treasury will conduct 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions on April...
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* Credit rating agency Fitch announced on Friday that it has affirmed Turkey’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-’, while revising the Outlook to “Stable” from “Positive”. The review was conducted outside the agency’s regular rating calendar, with Fitch noting that developments in the country warrant such a deviation from the calendar. material and sudden changes in a country’s credit...
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* TURKSTAT will release February Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Recall that sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) IP contracted by 2.8% m/m in January, reverting to a contractionary phase following two consecutive months of expansion, while calendar-adjusted annual production declined by 1.8% y/y, pointing to a continued weakness in the underlying trend. Leading...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of March 27 – April 3 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations uopn the analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of March 27 – April 3, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD6.7bn to USD162.2bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD11bn to USD46bn. This implies that,...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL99.8 via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed bond auction, including TL33.7bn in non-competitive sales. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at a relatively weak 1.62x, pointing to subdued demand, while the auction cleared at a term rate of 19.39%. This brought the Treasury’s total domestic borrowing for the month to TL133.6bn. According to the domestic borrowing...
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