Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release March Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of USD10.4bn in March. The market median forecast, which points to a deficit of USD9.7bn, remains below our house estimate. We estimate that the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit widened to USD9.9bn in March, while the services balance surplus likely stood at around...
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* The Treasury will hold a 4-year TLREF-indexed bond, as well as the direct sales of a 2-year USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL37bn (including non-competitive saleS) via yesterday’s 2y fixed-coupon and 4y CPI-indexed bond auctions. Demand conditions remained relatively weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio in the...
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* The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) contracted by 0.8% m/m in March, while calendar-adjusted annual IP declined by 1.1% y/y. Following the rebound recorded in February, the renewed weakening signaled by the March data came broadly in line with our expectations, while subcomponents and high-frequency indicators suggest that the soft underlying trend is likely...
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* TURKSTAT will release March industrial production figures today at 10:00 local time. As a reminder, industrial production posted the rebound we had anticipated in February, with seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output rising by 2.6% m/m, while calendar-adjusted annual industrial production increased by 2.2% y/y. However, leading indicators for March point to a renewed loss of momentum in industrial...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 24 – 30 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of April 24 – 30, gross FX reserves fell by USD5.6bn to USD165.6bn, while net FX reserves declined by a mere USD600mn to USD53.5bn. We expect...
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* The Ministry of Treasury and Finance raised a total of TL44.2bn in domestic borrowing at yesterday’s auctions of a 10-month zero-coupon bond and a 5-year fixed-coupon bond, including non-competitive (ROT) sales. Demand conditions were relatively subdued across both tenors. In the 10-month zero-coupon auction, the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 1.62x, with the average compounded yield realized at 42.51%. In the...
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*The Treasury and Finance Ministry will hold a 10-month zero-coupon and a 5-year fixed-coupon bond auctions today. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the three-month period covering May–July 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL381.7bn in domestic borrowing against TL347bn in redemptions in May, implying a rollover ratio of 110%. Following today’s auctions, the issuance calendar indicates that the...
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* TURKSTAT will release April inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 3.3% in April, broadly in line with the market consensus, lifting annual inflation from 30.9% to 31.3%. Our price tracking suggests a renewed acceleration in food inflation, with monthly food prices likely rising by around 3.5%. We estimate that the 25% hikes in electricity and natural gas prices...
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