Daily Macro News

* TURKSTAT will release August Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 local time. The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 87.9 to 89.8 in July, while its three-month moving average increased from 86.4 to 87.8. Looking at the sub-components, the financial situation of households at present, the financial situation expectation of households over the next 12 months, and the general economic situation expectation over the...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the August 7 – 14 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations using the CBT's analytical balance sheet, we estimate that the CBT's gross FX reserves rose by USD5.1bn to USD183.5bn, while net FX reserves increased by USD3.5bn to USD66.4bn, in the week of July 31 – August 7....
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* The Treasury will complete its August domestic borrowing program with today’s direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond and a 1y USD-denominated lease certificate. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL79.1bn, including TL42.5bn through non-competitive sales, in yesterday’s auctions of a 4y CPI-linked bond and a 9y fixed-coupon bond. This brought the Treasury’s total domestic borrowing so far...
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* The Treasury will hold auctions of a 4y CPI-linked bond and a 9y fixed coupon bond today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL101.7bn, including TL63.6bn through non-competitive sales, in yesterday’s auctions of a 3y FRN and a 4y TLREF-indexed bond. The 3y FRN auction attracted strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.45x, while the periodic rate stood at 20.87%. Demand was also robust...
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* The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold auctions of a 3y FRN and a 4y TLREF-indexed bond today. Following today’s auctions, the Treasury will hold auctions of a 4y CPI-linked bond and a 9y fixed coupon bond tomorrow, followed by direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond and a 1y USD-denominated lease certificate on Thursday, August 20, completing its domestic borrowing program for August. Under its...
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Macro and Politics * The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for August @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s July 2026 Survey of Market Participants, respondents’ end-2026 CPI inflation expectation edged up to 29.2% from 29.1%, while the end-2027 expectation rose marginally to 21.5% from 21.4%. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation increased to 24% from 23.8%, whereas the...
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*The CBT will release June Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account deficit, which narrowed to $1.5bn in May, to widen to $5.7bn in June. The market median forecast stands at $5.0bn, below our estimate. We expect the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to widen to $9.7bn in June, while the services surplus is likely to rise slightly above $6.0bn, supported by...
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* The Treasury borrowed a total of TL95.7bn from the domestic market (including non-competitive sales at an amount of TL47.3) through yesterday’s auctions for a 6m G-bond and a 5y fixed coupon bond. The bid-to-cover ratio in the 6m G-bond auction stood at 2.73x, pointing to strong demand, while the average compound yield was 41.13%. In the 5y fixed coupon bond auction, the bid-to-cover ratio remained relatively low...
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