Daily Macro News

* The CBT will release the April Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) further improved to 104.1, which stands for the highest level since May, up from 102.4 in March, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased from 102.8 to 103.2. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) showed a modest change, with the unadjusted CUR...
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*TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Consumer Confidence Index increased further to 85.9 in March, up from 82.1, marking the highest level since May 2023. Accordingly, after averaging 80.6 in 4Q24, the index has materialized at an average level of 83 in 1Q25. Following weak signals of economic activity reflected in January’s leading indicators, the February data pointed to...
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* The short-term external debt stock in February materialized at USD13.2bn, down by 1.3% m/m. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD223.6bn as of February 2025. Of this total, USD19.2bn is attributed to loans taken by...
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* The CBT will release February short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. Short-term external debt stock in January materialized at USD174.6bn, up by 0.9% m/m. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at...
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* The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time. Regardless of the interest rate composition the CBT chooses to adopt, we do not foresee a decline in the WACF, which currently stands at 46%. In fact, we believe that the signal for a potential additional tightening, if deemed necessary, may be reinforced. Accordingly, we expect that the CBT may opt to realign funding with the policy rate at today’s...
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* TURKSTAT will release March house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. In February, home sales reached 112,818 units, reflecting a modest 0.6% monthly increase, while posting a notable 20.1% y/y rise. However, it’s worth noting that the 20.1% annual increase recorded in February marked the weakest y/y growth since August. Moreover, mortgage-backed home sales totaled 16,778 units, recording a 0.3% monthly rise, while...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release March central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. In March, the Treasury recorded a cash deficit of TL298.4bn, bringing the cumulative cash deficit in the first quarter to a hefty amount of TL901bn. Moreover, the primary balance posted a deficit of TL162.9bn in March, while the cumulative primary deficit for the first three months amounted to TL483.7bn....
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* We expect the February Current Account Balance to post a deficit of USD4.4bn, slightly in line with the median estimate of USD4.3bn according to the survey conducted by ForInvest. Our Year-end current account deficit forecast is USD 22bn (1.5% of GDP). * The Treasury will hold 3m G-bond and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions today. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold 4y CPI-indexed bond auction as...
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