Daily Macro News

* TURKSTAT will release June Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index edged up from 85.5 to 85.8 in May, reaching its highest level since March 2025. Looking at the sub-components, the index measuring households’ current financial situation declined from 71.8 to 69.2, while the sub-index reflecting expectations for households’ financial situation over the next 12 months increased...
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*The CBT will release the June Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) rose by 2.7 points in May to 103.3, reaching its highest level since February. The seasonally adjusted index also increased by 2.4 points to 101, moving back above the critical 100 threshold. Please recall that the seasonally adjusted RSCI had...
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*TURKSTAT will release May housing sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Total housing sales increased by 11.9% m/m in April, reaching 126,808 units, while annual growth came in at 2.8%. First-hand sales rose by 9.6% y/y to 40,306 units, whereas second-hand transactions remained broadly flat, declining marginally by 0.3% y/y. Mortgage-backed housing sales increased by 40.5% y/y to 25,771 units, while remaining largely...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL29.8bn, including non-competitive sales amounting to TL20bn, via yesterday’s 5y fixed-coupon bond auction, while also sold TL13.4bn at the direct sale of 1y TLREFK-indexed lease certificate. The bid – to – cover ratio was low at 1.4x in the 5y fixed-coupon bond auction, while the average cost of borrowing stood at 37.94%. Accordingly, the Treasury...
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* The Treasury will hold 5y fixed-coupon bond auction as well the direct sale of 1y TLREFK-indexed lease certificate today and finalize its June domestic borrowing program. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL104.1bn, including non-competitive sales amounting to TL74.8bn, via yesterday’s 8m zero-coupon and 2y fixed-coupon bond auctions, while demand conditions remained strong. In the 8m...
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* The Treasury will hold 8m zero-coupon and a 2y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. Following today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold 5y fixed-coupon bond auction as well the direct sale of 1y TLREFK-indexed lease certificate tomorrow and finalize its June domestic borrowing program. According to the Treasury and Finance Ministry’s three-month domestic borrowing strategy for the June–August 2026 period,...
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*The CBT will release April Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of around USD4.2bn in April, compared to the market median forecast of USD5.6bn. We estimate that the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit narrowed to USD5.2bn during the month, while the services balance surplus remained robust at approximately USD3.5bn. Our year-end...
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*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today @ 14:00 local time. We do not expect the CBT to make any changes to its monetary policy framework at today’s meeting. Accordingly, we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 37%, while the lower and upper bounds of the interest rate corridor are likely to be maintained at 35.5% and 40%, respectively. We also do not anticipate any meaningful...
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