Daily Macro News

* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a...
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* The short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD165.8bn, down by 1.9% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD224.8bn as of September 2025. Of this total, USD26.9bn is attributed to loans taken...
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* The Treasury will hold a direct sale of a two-year TLREFK-indexed lease certificate today. After today’s sales, the Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate on November 20, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026,...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release October central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL195.9bn in October, while the primary balance registered a deficit of TL36bn. Over the first ten months of the year, the cumulative cash deficit reached TL1.8tn, with the primary deficit amounting to TL137.2bn. The October cash balance figures serve as a...
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* The CBT will release the results of the November Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the CBT’s Market Participants Survey for October 2025, participants’ inflation expectations for the coming periods deteriorated markedly following the higher-than-expected September inflation print. Accordingly, the 2025 year-end CPI expectation rose to 31.77% in October...
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* TURKSTAT will release October house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales rose to 150,657 units in September, marking an annual increase of 6.9% and a 5.1% rise m/m. Moreover, mortgage-backed sales increased by 7.9% m/m and 34.4% y/y, reaching 21,266 units during the same month. Housing loan rates, which had hovered above 43% since June, declined to below 39%, with the average mortgage rate standing at...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets at an amount of TL34.1bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7m G-bond auction. The bid-to-cover ratio stood high at 2.94x, while the average cost of borrowing was 41.13%. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it...
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*The Treasury will hold a 7-month zero coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a rollover ratio of 135%. The November borrowing program will begin today with the auction of a 7-month zero-coupon...
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