Daily Macro News

* Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI edged down to 47.9 in September from 48.1 in August, remaining below the 50 threshold for the 30th consecutive month, while the quarterly average rose to 47.9 in 3Q26 from 47.5 in 2Q26. Weak demand conditions remained the main drag on the manufacturing sector, with output falling for a fourth straight month and both new orders and new export orders...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey September Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.1 in August from 47.7 in July, reaching its highest level since May. Nevertheless, with the index remaining below the 50.0 no-change threshold, the deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions extended to a twenty-ninth...
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* August Employment figures will be released at 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 8.1% in July, while the broad underutilization rate — a more comprehensive gauge of labor market conditions, which includes time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment — increased from 28.8% to 30.6% over the same period. A breakdown of the subcomponents shows that...
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* TURKSTAT will release September Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index rose by 0.8% from 99.8 to 100.6 in August, moving above the 100-threshold for the first time since February 2026. Among the sub-indices, the Consumer Confidence Index increased by 1% to 90.8, while the Real Sector Confidence Index rose by 1.2% to 102.4. By contrast, the Services Confidence Index edged down...
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* Foreign portfolio flows reversed course in the September 11–18 week, with investors offloading USD109.8mn of equities and USD116.9mn of bonds, excluding repo transactions. The renewed outflow from equities followed net purchases of USD277.7mn in the previous week, while the two-week run of foreign buying in the bond market also came to an end. Moreover, foreigners’ share in the total bond stock declined from 7.2%...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money and banking statistics, and international reserves for the September 11 – 18 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross FX reserves declined by USD4.2bn to USD174.5bn, while net FX reserves fell by USD6bn to USD56.1bn during the week. We expect today’s official data to...
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* The CBT will release the September Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the August Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations declined by 0.26pp to 23.69% among market participants, while rising by 0.30pp to 32.80% for the real sector and by 0.64pp to 45.58% for households. The share of households expecting inflation to...
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* TURKSTAT will release September Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 local time. The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 89.8 to 90.8 in August, while its three-month moving average increased from 87.8 to 89.5. Across the sub-components, the financial situation of households at present, the financial situation expectation of households over the next 12 months, and the general economic situation expectation over the...
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