Daily Macro News

* The Turkish economy expanded by 0.1% q/q and 2.5% y/y in 1Q26. Both our forecast and the market median had pointed to annual growth of 2.7%. While the services sector remained the primary driver of growth, the sequential slowdown in both private consumption and investment spending signaled a loss of momentum in economic activity. On the expenditure side, household consumption increased by a modest 0.1% q/q, while...
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*TURKSTAT will release 1Q26 GDP figures today @ 10:00 local time. We estimate that the Turkish economy expanded by 2.7% y/y in 1Q26, while assessing the risks surrounding our forecast to be skewed to the downside. The market median forecast also stands at 2.7% y/y, broadly in line with our house estimate. It’s worth noting that, in light of the adverse effects of the US – Iran conflict on economic activity, we...
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* The CBT will release the May Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) Survey @ 10:00 local time. The results of the lastest April Sectoral Inflation Expectations (SIE) survey pointed to a continued rise in inflation expectations across economic units in April. Accordingly, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations increased by 1.22 points to 23.39% for market participants, by 0.80 points to 33.7% for the real...
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* The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 1.8% m/m and 26.6% y/y in April, reaching 223.4, while declining by 4.3% y/y in real terms. Recall that the real annual change in the RPPI had turned positive at 0.2% in November for the first time since January 2024, before reverting back into negative territory as of December. In this respect, the April reading suggests that residential property prices...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for April @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose by 2% m/m and 26.4% y/y in March, reaching 219.7, while declining by 3.4% y/y in real terms. Recall that the real annual change in the RPPI had turned positive at 0.2% in November for the first time since January 2024, before reverting back into negative territory as of...
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*The Treasury will hold direct sales of a 1.5-year gold-denominated bond and a1.5-year gold-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for May. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the three-month period covering May – July 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL381.7bn in domestic borrowing against TL347bn in redemptions in May, implying a rollover ratio of 110%....
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*TURKSTAT will release April housing sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales declined by 2.1% both on a monthly and annual basis in March, reaching 113,367 units. Within total sales, first-hand transactions accounted for 31.5%, while second-hand sales maintained their dominance with a 68.5% share. First-hand housing sales increased modestly by 1.3% y/y to 35,725 units, while second-hand sales declined by...
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*The CBT will release March Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of USD10.4bn in March. The market median forecast, which points to a deficit of USD9.7bn, remains below our house estimate. We estimate that the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit widened to USD9.9bn in March, while the services balance surplus likely stood at around...
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