Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release September Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a surplus of USD2.9bn in September. We estimate that the balance of payments-defined trade deficit narrowed to USD3.3bn, while net travel revenues declined to USD6bn and the services balance registered a surplus of around USD8.1bn. Our year-end current account deficit forecast stands at USD48bn...
Read More

* The CBT raised its eight-week loan growth limits from 3% to 3.5% for general purpose and vehicle loans extended to consumers, from 5% to 5.5% for TL loans extended to SMEs, and from 2% to 2.5% for TL loans extended to non-SME enterprises. The Bank also introduced remuneration in TL for required reserves maintained by banks and financing companies against their TL- and FX-denominated non-deposit liabilities with...
Read More

* The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) index rose 2.1% m/m in September, exceeding our 0.5% forecast, while calendar-adjusted annual IP increased 2.6% y/y against our expectation of a milder contraction. Manufacturing output rose 2.3% m/m, with headline production recovering after two consecutive monthly declines. Capital goods production increased 8.2% m/m,...
Read More

* TURKSTAT will release September industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) index declined by 1% m/m in August, while calendar-adjusted annual IP contracted by 1.9% y/y. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline in industrial production, consistent with the weakness signaled by foreign trade data...
Read More

* The Treasury will hold 2y and 4y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. Following today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold an 8y fixed-coupon bond auction and a direct sale of 5y lease certificate tomorrow and finalize its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury's domestic borrowing strategy for November 2026 – January 2027, domestic borrowing of TL123.4bn is planned for November...
Read More

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release October cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL467.2bn in September, alongside a primary deficit of TL193.3bn. Accordingly, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit reached TL1.9tn in Jan–Sep, while the primary balance registered a surplus of TL312.5bn over the same period. Meanwhile, the central government budget recorded...
Read More

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows and money & banking statistics for the October 23 – 30 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross reserves decreased by USD4.1bn to USD158.1bn, while net reserves slid by USD4.7bn to USD38.1bn during the week. We expect today’s official data to confirm a change in reserves...
Read More

* The CBT will release October Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Based on the change in the average equally weighted FX basket and the October CPI, we estimate that the CPI-based real effective exchange rate index will point to a real appreciation of approximately 2.3% in the TL in October. * TURKSTAT will release October seasonally adjusted CPI and core CPI aggregates today @16:00 local...
Read More