Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release December Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of USD5.15bn in December. We project the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to widen to USD6.6bn, while the services surplus is likely to moderate to USD3.1bn amid weaker net travel revenues. Accordingly, we now expect the current account deficit to close 2025 at...
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*The CBT will unveil the 1st Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. In its latest Inflation Report presentation on November 7, the CBT...
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* The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) increased by 1.2% m/m in December, while the calendar-adjusted annual change pointed to a contraction of 2.1% y/y. Given that IP had risen by 2.5% m/m and 2.2% y/y in November, the December data indicate a marked loss of momentum in industrial activity. As per sub-categories, the annual contraction was driven primarily...
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* TURKSTAT will release December Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Foreign trade data are indicative for our IP forecasts. In December, intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy increased by 14% m/m and 14.8% y/y, signaling a strengthening in underlying manufacturing demand. Another key leading indicator for industrial activity, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey...
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* The Treasury will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. According to the Treasury’s domestic borrowing strategy for the February–April 2026 period, the Treasury projects domestic borrowing of TL525.3bn against redemptions totaling TL656.6bn in February. The program also points to a similar stance in March and April, with planned borrowing remaining below redemption amounts. Following...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release January cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit reached TL2.1tn in 2025. The central government budget deficit for the full year amounted to TL1.8tn, coming in below the TL2.2tn target set...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of January 23 – 30 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of January 23 – 30, the CBT’s gross FX reserves rose by USD2.6bn to USD218.3bn, reaching a new record high, while net international reserves...
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*The CBT will release January Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for January, we expect the REER to increase from 71.1 to 73.5, implying a 3.5% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release January seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations,...
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