Daily Macro News

Macro and Politics * TURKSTAT will release May industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. An analysis of the foreign trade data, which provide important signals regarding industrial production, suggests that the trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy points to a loss of momentum in industrial production in May. In addition, we expect the bridge-day effect associated with...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 29 – July 3 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 29 – July 3 period, gross FX reserves increased by USD10.7bn to USD159.9bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10bn to USD55.3bn. We expect...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL190.3bn, including non-competitive sales of TL105.7bn, through yesterday’s auctions of a 4y TLREF-indexed bond and a 5y fixed-coupon bond. At the new issuance of the 4y TLREF-indexed bond maturing on July 3, 2030, the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.93x, while the periodic interest rate came in at 20.45%. Meanwhile, the reissue of the 5y...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will hold a 4y TLREF-indexed bond auction and a 5y fixed-coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury’s three-month (Jul – Sep 2026) domestic borrowing strategy, it plans to borrow a total of TL606.8bn in July against redemptions of TL638.7bn, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. The Treasury commenced its July domestic borrowing program with the direct sales of a 2y...
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* The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to increase merely to 105.7, implying a 0.1% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * Monthly CPI inflation came in at 1% in June, in line with our house forecast, while market expectations were also broadly aligned with our...
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* TURKSTAT will release June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 1.0% in June, which would bring annual inflation down to 32.1. We continue to observe the decline in food prices that began in May extending into June, leading us to expect a second consecutive month of negative monthly food inflation. Yet, the increase we have observed in vegetable prices towards...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 19 – 26 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 19 – 26 period, gross FX reserves declined by USD8.2bn to USD149bn, while net FX reserves fell by USD6.9bn to USD45bn. We expect today’s...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey June Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.7 to 49.8 in May, reaching its highest level since March 2024. While this marked the 26th consecutive month of slowdown across the manufacturing sector, the index’s significant move closer to the neutral 50 threshold suggested that the...
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