Daily Macro News

* The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP)  rose by 0.4% in August, while calendar-adjusted IP increased by 7.1% y/y. Please recall that IP had contracted by 1.8% m/m, while expanded by 5% y/y back in July. The data continue to point to a widening divergence across sectors, with construction and defense-related industries standing out positively, while...
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* TURKSTAT will release August Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) decreased by 1.8% m/m in July, while the calendar adjusted IP increased by 5% y/y. Foreign trade data serve as a key leading indicator for our industrial production forecasts. In August, imports of intermediate goods excluding...
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* The CBT Governor Karahan spoke before the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission yesterday, noting that annual consumer inflation rose in September, driven primarily by food and services prices. Karahan highlighted that the underlying trend in median inflation — which has demonstrated relatively better forecasting performance — currently implies a rate around 26%. Although this stands below the current CPI...
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* The Treasury will hold a direct sale of a 2-year lease certificate indexed to the TLREFK (Turkish Lira Overnight Participation Reference Rate) and a 5-year fixed-coupon bond auction today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL42.4bn via yesterday’s 8m zero coupon bond auction, with average cost of borrowing at 40.32%. According to the three-month (October–December 2025) domestic borrowing...
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* The Treasury will hold 8m zero-coupon bond auction today. According to the three-month (October–December 2025) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury plans to borrow a total of TL290.1bn through five auctions and one direct sale, against redemptions of TL263.6bn in October. Following today’s single auction, the Treasury will hold a direct sale of a 2-year lease certificate indexed to the TLREFK (Turkish Lira...
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* TURKSTAT will release the September inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We forecast a monthly CPI increase of 2.47% for September, which would bring the annual inflation rate down from 33% to 32.3%. According to the survey conducted by ForInvest, the market consensus estimates a 2.5% m/m CPI rise, in line with our house estimate. We do not expect a rate cut exceeding 250bps in the last two MPC meetings of...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of September 19 – 26 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of September 19 – 26, net international reserves rose by USD2.4bn to USD72.7bn, while gross FX reserves increased by USD4.2bn to USD183.2bn. We...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey September Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3 in August from 45.9 in July, marking its first increase since January and reaching its highest level since April. Yet, the index continues to remain below the 50-threshold since April 2024, signaling a continued contraction in...
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