Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release July Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a surplus of USD615mn in July. Our projections point to a narrowing in the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to USD6.2bn, alongside a widening in the services surplus to USD9bn, supported by higher net travel revenues. Our year-end current account deficit forecast stands at USD54bn,...
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* TURKSTAT will release July industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) edged up by 0.1% m/m in June, in line with our expectation, returning marginally to positive territory, while calendar-adjusted annual IP contracted by 1.4% y/y. We had expected a monthly increase in industrial production in June,...
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* The Treasury cash balance posted a surplus of TL49.8bn in August, while the primary cash balance recorded a surplus of TL209.6bn. The Treasury cash balance provides an early indication of the August central government budget figures, due to be released on September 15. As a reminder, the central government budget had posted a TL114.2bn surplus in June, largely driven by base effects stemming from deferred tax...
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* The new Medium-Term Program (MTP) covering the 2027–2029 period introduced substantial revisions to the macroeconomic projections, most notably a marked postponement of the disinflation path relative to the previous program. The 2026 growth forecast was revised down to 3.3% from 3.8%, while the year-end inflation forecast was raised sharply to 28.4% from 16%. Year-end inflation projections for 2027 and 2028 were...
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* The CBT will release August Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Based on the average change in the equally weighted currency basket in August, the monthly inflation outturn, and our assumption for the weighted geometric foreign price index derived from inflation forecasts for Turkey’s trading partners, we estimate that the CPI-based real effective exchange rate will point to a monthly...
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* TURKSTAT will release August inflation figures today at 10:00 local time. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in at 2.1% in August, with annual inflation edging up slightly to 31.9% from 31.8% in July. The market median, meanwhile, points to a monthly increase of around 1.9–2.0% for August, placing the consensus slightly below our forecast. The temporary removal of the special consumption tax (SCT) on diesel...
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* The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.1 in August from 47.7 in July, reaching its highest level since May. Nevertheless, with the index remaining below the 50.0 no-change threshold, the deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions extended to a twenty-ninth consecutive month. The accompanying release noted that the war in the Middle East continued to weigh on the...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey August Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.7 in July from 47.1 in June. However, with the headline index remaining below the 50-threshold, the downturn in manufacturing activity extended into its 28th consecutive month. In its accompanying note, the ICI noted that challenging conditions in the manufacturing...
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