Daily Macro News

*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today at 14:00 local time. We expect the MPC to cut the policy rate by 100bps to 36%, in line with the market consensus. We believe that the decline in annual inflation as of September, coupled with growing signs of cooling domestic demand, will provide room for further monetary easing in the final quarter of the year. Accordingly, we anticipate 100bp...
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*The CBT will release the October Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate at 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined by 0.8 points to 102 in September, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI edged up by 0.1 points to 102.5. Among the sub-components, assessments of the general course of business, current overall order books, total employment for the next...
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* Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross reserves declined by USD2.5bn to USD169.1bn during the October 9–16 week, while net reserves fell by USD6.3bn to USD51.4bn. As a reminder, gross reserves had risen by USD4.2bn to USD171.6bn in the October 2–9 week, ending a six-week streak of declines, while net reserves increased by USD4bn to USD57.7bn. We expect the CBT’s...
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* The CBT released its October 2026 Survey of Market Participants. Participants’ year-end CPI inflation expectation for 2026 remained unchanged at 29.6%, while the 2027 year-end expectation increased to 23.3% from 22.7%. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation rose to 23.9% from 23.7%, while the 24-month-ahead expectation declined to 17.9% from 18.3%. The five-year-ahead expectation edged up to 12.2% from 12.1%....
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* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for October @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s September 2026 Survey of Market Participants, respondents revised their year-end CPI inflation expectations upward to 29.6% from 29.4% for 2026 and to 22.7% from 21.9% for 2027. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation remained unchanged at 23.7%, while the 24-month-ahead expectation edged...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL467.2bn in September, alongside a primary cash deficit of TL193.3bn. This brought the cumulative Treasury cash deficit to TL1.9tn in Jan–Sep, while the primary cash balance recorded a surplus of TL312.5bn over the same period. We expect today's figures...
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* The current account posted a surplus of USD4.05bn in August, slightly below our forecast of USD4.4bn, while standing above the market median expectation of USD3.5bn. The cumulative current account deficit for Jan–Aug reached USD31.5bn, widening significantly from USD19.7bn in the same period last year. On a trailing 12-month basis, the current account deficit increased to USD42.1bn from USD41.5bn in July....
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*The CBT will release August Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a surplus of USD4.4bn in August. Our projections point to a narrowing in the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to USD2bn, with net travel revenues exceeding USD7bn and the services surplus reaching around USD9.5bn. We maintain our year-end current account deficit forecast at...
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