Daily Macro News

* During the week of July 25–August 1, foreigners recorded a limited net inflow of USD135.5mn into the equity market and USD8.8mn into the bond market (excluding repo transactions). Meanwhile, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock dropped from 6.4% to 6.3% within the mentioned week. Over the same period, residents’ FX deposits slumped by USD1.9bn (excluding gold accounts and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of July 25 – August 1 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of July 25 – August 1, the gross FX reserves slid by USD2.9bn to USD169.1bn, while net international reserves dropped by USD1.3bn to...
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*The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) decreased further from the revised level of 70.02 to 69.36 in July. Accordingly, the Turkish lira registered a real depreciation of 0.9% in July. Having been on a weakening trend in real terms since February, the Turkish lira has posted a cumulative real depreciation of 8% over the past six...
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*The CBT will release July Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for July, we expect the REER to ease from 69.97 to 69.54, implying a 0.6% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release July seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
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*TURKSTAT will release the July inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We forecast a monthly CPI increase of 2.4% for July, which would bring the annual inflation rate to 34% from the previous month’s 35%. According to a survey conducted by ForInvest (previously known as Foreks), the market consensus estimates a 2.4% m/m CPI rise, perfectly in line with our house estimate. We expect the sharp monthly increase...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey July Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined further from 47.2 to 46.7 in June, marking the lowest reading so far this year and the weakest since October 2024. Remaining below the 50-threshold since March 2024, the index continues to signal a sustained loss of momentum in manufacturing...
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* TURKSTAT will release June foreign trade figures 10:00 local time. Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade point to a widening in the foreign trade deficit in June. According to the preliminary figures, exports rose by 8% y/y to USD20.5bn, while imports increased by 15.3% to USD28.7bn. Based on these figures, the trade deficit expanded from USD6.6bn to USD8.2bn in June, while the rolling 12‑month...
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* June Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate eased a tad from 8.6% to 8.4% in May. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – decreased slightly from 32.1% to 31% and remained elevated. Moreover, the combined rate of...
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