Daily Macro News

*TURKSTAT will release June Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index remained virtually unchanged in May, inching up by just 0.1 points from 96.6 to 96.7. As per the sub-components of May data: The consumer confidence index rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis to 84.8, while the real sector confidence index declined by 2.2% to 98.6. Moreover, the services confidence index climbed 0.9%...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of June 13 – 20 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of June 13 – 20, net international reserves slid by USD5.46bn to USD49.3bn, while gross FX reserves dropped by USD3.65bn to USD155.8bn. Accordingly, our...
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*The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined from 101.4 in June to 100.3, retreating to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, while the seasonally adjusted index decreased from 98.6 to 98.4, marking its lowest point since August 2024. It is worth recalling that readings below the threshold of 100 in the RSCI reflect a waning sentiment among real sector representatives regarding economic activities....
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* The CBT will release the June Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) slid further to 101.4 level in May from the previous month’s 103.2, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI declined to 98.6 from 100.8, easing below the 100-threshold for the first time since September. Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rate (CUR)...
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* In order to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism and support transition to the Turkish lira (TRY), the CBT has made the following changes in the macroprudential framework: (i) The growth targets for real-person TRY deposit shares have been increased for banks with a share below 60%, while a monthly growth target of 0.4 points has been introduced for banks with a share between 60% and 65%, (ii) The...
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* In the week of June 6 – 13, foreigners registered a net purchase of USD475mn in equities and USD580mn in government bonds (excluding repo transactions). This marked the ninth consecutive week of foreign inflows into the equity market, while the bond market saw a return to net foreign buying following two weeks of outflows. As a result, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock edged up from 4.8% to 5.1% within...
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* We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave the policy rate unchanged at 46% at today’s rate-setting, while lowering the upper bound of the interest rate corridor from 49% to 47.5%, thereby restoring corridor symmetry. The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time today. The CBT has already performed an effective rate cut of 300 bps through increasing the size of its weekly repo auctions and...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL79bn from the domestic markets (including non-competitive sales) through yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions and finalized its domestic borrowing program for June. For the TLREF auction, the bid – to -cover ratio was weak at 1.62x and the term rate was 12.47%. Besides, for the fixed coupon auction, the bid – to – cover ratio stood at 4.21x, indicating robust...
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