Daily Macro News

* TURKSTAT will release March Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential IP (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) contracted by 1.6% m/m in January 2025, while the calendar adjusted IP decreased by 1.9% y/y. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) manufacturing PMI, which averaged 47.73 in 4Q24, showed little change in 1Q25, averaging 47.87. Accordingly, we expect IP...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 25 – May 2 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of April 25 – May 2, the net international reserves dropped further by USD2.1bn to USD33bn and the gross FX reserves slumped by USD2.5bn to...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL35.3bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon and 7y FRN bond auctions. The Treasury issued a new 2y fixed-coupon bond yesterday, which will replace the February 10, 2027-maturity bond as Turkey’s new benchmark bond once it begins trading. The average cost of borrowing was 47.19% for 2y fixed-coupon auction, while the bid – to –...
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*The Treasury will hold 2y fixed coupon and 7y FRN bond auctions today. According to three-month (May – July 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury has a domestic redemption of TL160.7bn in May, while in return it plans to borrow TL187.5bn in total throughout the month via four auctions and two direct sales. The first Treasury auctions of May will be held today. The Treasury is set to issue a new 2y...
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* The CBT decided to implement the following changes to the macroprudential framework to support transition to the Turkish lira: Reserve requirement ratios for FX deposits have been raised by 200 basis points across all maturities - We view this measure as an effort by the CBRT to dampen banks’ appetite for attracting FX deposits. The adjustment is estimated to absorb around USD5bn from the market and support a...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey April Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI decreased from 48.3 in March to 47.3, marking its lowest level since October. Consequently, the manufacturing PMI, which averaged 47.73 in 4Q24, showed little change in 1Q25, averaging 47.87. In this context, we expect industrial production (IP) in the first quarter of this year...
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*TURKSTAT will release March foreign trade figures 10:00 local time. Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade indicates a modest reduction in the trade deficit for March. According to the preliminary figures, exports rose by 3.2% y/y to USD23.4bn, while imports increased by 2.3%, amounting to USD30.7bn. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed from USD7.8bn in February to USD7.3bn in March, with the...
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* March Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% to 8.2% in February. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment— dropped from 28.2% to 24%, which stands for the lowest level since February 2024. The combined...
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