Daily Macro News

*The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision will be announced today @ 14:00 local time. While we expect the MPC to deliver a 100bps rate cut, we do not rule out the possibility of a 150bps rate cut. However, we do not believe the current inflation backdrop provides sufficient room for a 200bps or larger adjustment. The downside surprise in November headline inflation has clearly pushed market expectations higher,...
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* TURKSTAT will release October Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Foreign trade figures serve as a key leading indicator for our IP forecasts. In October, the monthly increase in imports of intermediate goods (excluding gold and energy) moderated to 4.0%, while the annual rise stood at 4.1%. Another important leading indicator, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5 y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL33.9bn via yesterday’s 6m zero-coupon bond auction. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 2.75x, while average cost of borrowing stood at 39.72%. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold a 5y CPI-indexed bond auction as well as the direct sale of 2y TLREFK-indexed lease...
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* The Treasury will hold 6m zero-coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury and Finance Ministry’s three-month domestic borrowing strategy for the December 2025 – February 2026 period, domestic redemptions amounting to TL109.4bn in December will be met with planned borrowing of TL124.2bn, implying a rollover ratio of 114%. Following today’s single auction, the Treasury will hold 2y and 5 y fixed coupon...
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* October Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment remained unchanged at 8.6% in September, while the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment– decreased from 29.8% to 28.6%. Moreover, within the components, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment edged...
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* The CBT Governor Karahan spoke yesterday in a live broadcast on “Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Outlook” outlining the Bank’s policy stance, the ongoing rebalancing in domestic demand, and the disinflation process. He noted that the more than USD80bn increase in gross reserves has largely reflected resident FX conversions and highlighted the sharp decline in FX-protected deposits (KKM). Reaffirming price...
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* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real...
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* The CBT will release the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the October Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations diverged across sectors compared to the previous month. Expectations rose by 1.01pps to 23.26% among market participants and by 1.40pps to 54.39% among households, while declining by 0.50pps to 36.30% for...
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