Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* We estimate that CBT reserves, which had been on an upward trajectory over the past two weeks, turned lower again last week. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of April 17 – 24, gross FX reserves fell by USD3.3bn to USD171.3bn, while net FX reserves declined by USD4.1bn to USD54.2bn. We expect the official reserve data to be released on Thursday at 14:30 local time to point to a decline broadly in line with our estimates. According to the latest official figures, since the onset of the US – Iran conflict, net FX reserves have decreased by USD33.3bn, gross FX reserves by USD35.8bn, and the net reserves excluding swaps by USD39.1bn (including the rebound observed over the past two weeks). With the upcoming data release, we expect the cumulative reserve losses since the beginning of the war to widen again.