Macro and Politics

* March Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 8.2% to 8.5% in February, while the broader underutilization measure that we closely monitor – the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – rose a tad from 29.8% to 29.9%. A breakdown of the components shows that the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment remained unchanged at 19.2%, while the combined rate of unemployment and the potential labor force increased to 20.6% from 20.2%. Levels of around 30% in the broad underutilization measure point to a materially weaker labor market than suggested by the headline unemployment rate. Given the expected drag on economic activity from US – Iran tensions, we anticipate that the upward trend in broader labor market slack will persist in the period ahead.

* TURKSTAT will release March Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The economic confidence index declined to 97.9 in March from 100.7, marking its lowest level since September. As a reminder, the index had risen from 99.4 to 100.7 in February, moving above the 100 threshold for the first time since March 2025. Note that the economic confidence index can take value between 0 and 200 and it indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation when economic confidence index is above 100, while confirming a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.  A breakdown of the March data shows that the consumer confidence index declined by 0.8% to 85, the real sector confidence index fell by 3.9% to 100, the services confidence index edged down by 0.5% to 113.2, the retail trade confidence index decreased by 2.0% to 113.6, and the construction confidence index dropped by 3.9% to 80.6.