Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The geopolitical tension that had shown signs of easing at the start of the week has escalated again over the last 24 hours following reciprocal statements and fresh headlines from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have moved back into the USD 90–100 range. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are being pushed further out, while markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike from the European Central Bank by mid-year. U.S. and European futures are down by around 1%, while Asian markets are broadly in negative territory. In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index closed yesterday at 13,200, up a limited 0.2%, though we may see a pullback back toward the 13,000 level today. The top five positive contributors to the index yesterday were BIMAS, KLRHO, DSTKF, ASELS and PASEU, while TCELL, ENKAI, KTLEV, TRALT and HALKB weighed most on the index. Over the last week, the names drawing consistent money inflows have been TTKOM, TKFEN, GEREL, ISGYO and KCAER. From a technical perspective, 13,450 / 13,550 stands out as the resistance zone, while 12,800 / 13,000 marks the key support area. The 4Q25 earnings season is now largely complete. Based on our criteria, 25% of companies posted year-on-year improvement. This is better than the 2Q25 and 3Q25 reporting periods, but still below the 35% levels seen at the beginning of the season. Our 12-month target for the XU100 index has approached 17,500, and this expectation has largely materialized. However, our view that the index could move into the 19,000–20,000 range in the second half of the year has weakened due to geopolitical developments. On today’s calendar, the key domestic releases will be the current account balance, the MPC rate decision, CBRT reserves and weekly foreign investor flows. We do not expect any change in the policy rate, which currently stands at 37%, while funding is likely to remain at 40%. In the U.S., weekly jobless claims and housing sector data will be in focus. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 253 basis points.