Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices hovering near the USD 100 mark continue to dominate the outlook. This backdrop, which is adding to global inflation risks, has pushed expectations for Fed rate cuts out to 2027, while markets are now pricing in a rate hike from the European Central Bank in the second half of this year. The shift in monetary policy expectations is weighing on global equities. Still, following yesterday’s sell-off, US and European futures are searching for a rebound this morning, while Asian markets are trading lower as yesterday’s pessimism is only now being priced in across the region. In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 tested the 13,450 resistance level after the MPC decision, but failed to hold above it and closed the day at 13,286. The index was up 0.7% day-on-day, with TUPRS, KLRHO, BIMAS, SASA, and ASTOR providing the strongest positive contribution, while ASELS, AKBNK, YKBNK, ISCTR, and HALKB weighed most on the index. Over the past week, SAHOL, ODINE, TURSG, ISGYO, and HEDEF have stood out with consistent money inflows. Technically, the 13,450 / 13,550 range remains the first key resistance zone; a break above this area would bring 14,000 and higher levels back into focus. On the downside, support levels are seen at 12,900 / 13,000 and 12,400. Today’s agenda includes the CBRT Market Participants Survey domestically, industrial production data in Europe, and growth- and inflation-related data releases in the US. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS spreads start the day at 264 basis points.