Daily Macro News

* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for December @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 2.7% m/m and 31.4% y/y in November, reaching 204.2, while real house prices recorded a 0.3% annual increase. As a result, the annual real change in RPPI turned positive for the first time since January 2024. This indicates that, despite the weakening observed...
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* The CBT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s latest Market Participants Survey for December 2025, participants revised their 2025 year-end CPI expectation down to 31.2% from 32.2%, while the 2026 year-end CPI forecast edged slightly higher to 23.4% from 23.2%. In addition, the 24-month-ahead CPI expectation declined to...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
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*The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 10y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. In yesterday’s auctions, covering a 2y fixed-coupon bond and a 5y CPI-linked bond, the Treasury raised TL78.3bn, including non-competitive sales. Demand at the 2y fixed-coupon auction was robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield settled at 36.87%. Despite a relatively...
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* The real effective exchange rate (REER) declined broadly in line with our house expectation in December, falling to 71.1 and implying nearly 1% real depreciation. The decline was primarily driven by the nominal exchange rate increasing at a faster pace than consumer price inflation. As a result, the Turkish lira recorded a second consecutive month of real depreciation against its equally weighted currency...
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* The Treasury will hold 5y fixed coupon bond auction as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL77.8bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 12m G-bond and 4y FRN bond auctions. The FRN auction drew exceptionally strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 8.06x and a term rate of 19.49%. In the 12m G-bond auction, the...
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* TURKSTAT will release December inflation data today @ 10:00 local time. We expect December CPI to rise by 0.8% m/m, slightly below the market consensus of around 1%. In case of the monthly realization to align with our forecast, year-end inflation for 2025 would decline to 30.8%. We project annual CPI to stand at 23% by end-2026. Our forecast is built on the assumption that, following the removal of excess...
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