Daily Macro News

* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL26.8bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 5y CPI-linker and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions. The new 10-year bond maturing September 5, 2035 will become the benchmark issue following yesterday’s auction, replacing the current 27.09.2034 maturity in the secondary market. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 4.89x for CPI-linker, indicating...
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*The Treasury will hold 5y CPI-linker and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for the month. The new 10-year bond maturing September 5, 2035 will become the benchmark issue following today’s auction, replacing the current 27.09.2034 maturity in the secondary market. According to its three-month (Sept – Nov 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury faces a domestic...
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* The third hearing of the lawsuit seeking the annulment of the main opposition CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress, convened on 4–5 November 2023, will take place today @10:00 at the Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance. Today’s hearing begins @10:00 local time. * The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release August central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The central government budget posted a...
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*The CBT will release July Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a surplus of USD1.9bn, higher than the market consensus at USD1.5bn of surplus. We forecast that the balance of payments–defined foreign trade deficit will narrow from USD6.5bn to USD4bn, while the services surplus — driven primarily by higher net tourism revenues — will reach...
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* We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver a 200bps rate cut at today’s rate-setting meeting, in line with the market consensus. We believe that stronger-than-expected growth figures, which failed to validate the CBT’s output gap trajectory, coupled with the recent rise in domestic political risks, suggest that the likelihood of a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the CBT has increased....
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* TURKSTAT will release July Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) increased by 0.7% m/m in June, while the calendar adjusted IP surged by 8.3% y/y. The robust annual rise primarily reflects a low base effect; therefore, we do not expect the surge in annual data to be permanent. Examining the...
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*The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury borrowed TL67bn (including non-competitive sales) from the domestic markets via yesterday’s 9m zero-coupon bond auction. The Treasury also conducted a direct sale of 2-year TLREFK (Turkish Lira Overnight Participation Reference Rate) indexed lease certificates yesterday, marking the first-ever issuance of such an instrument. The...
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*The Medium-Term Economic Program (MTEP) covering the 2026–2028 period has been published in the Official Gazette. The new framework signals a recalibration of inflation forecasts in line with the Central Bank’s interim targets, while projecting a modest downward revision in growth expectations. Under the updated projections, GDP growth is expected at 3.3% in 2025, accelerating to 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027, and...
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