Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to ease from 71.1 to 70.1, implying a 1.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release June seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
Read More

* TURKSTAT will release the June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect CPI to rise by 1.38% m/m in June, lower than the median estimate at 1.5%. Should the monthly figure materialize in line with our forecast, annual inflation edge down from 35.4% to 35.1%. A monthly reading below 1.5%, aligned with our forecast, would likely fuel market expectations for a policy rate cut by the CBT. However, even...
Read More

* The state-run natural gas distributor Botas hiked the natural gas prices by 24.6% for residential use. The direct impact of the price increase on the CPI will be around 0.45pp. Considering the indirect effects, we anticipate a higher overall impact on headline. However, with the prevailing positive base effect, we expect the annual CPI to sustain its decline in July, potentially falling below 34%. * Istanbul...
Read More

*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey June Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.3 to 47.2 in May, marking the lowest reading so far this year and the weakest since October 2024. Remaining below the 50-threshold since March 2024, the index continues to signal a sustained loss of momentum in manufacturing activity for over a year. The accompanying...
Read More

* May Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate climbed from 8% to 8.6% in April. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – rose sharply from 28.8% to 32.2%, marking an all-time high and signaling a pronounced weakening in...
Read More

*TURKSTAT will release June Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index remained virtually unchanged in May, inching up by just 0.1 points from 96.6 to 96.7. As per the sub-components of May data: The consumer confidence index rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis to 84.8, while the real sector confidence index declined by 2.2% to 98.6. Moreover, the services confidence index climbed 0.9%...
Read More

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of June 13 – 20 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of June 13 – 20, net international reserves slid by USD5.46bn to USD49.3bn, while gross FX reserves dropped by USD3.65bn to USD155.8bn. Accordingly, our...
Read More

*The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined from 101.4 in June to 100.3, retreating to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, while the seasonally adjusted index decreased from 98.6 to 98.4, marking its lowest point since August 2024. It is worth recalling that readings below the threshold of 100 in the RSCI reflect a waning sentiment among real sector representatives regarding economic activities....
Read More