Daily Macro News

*The CBT Governor Fatih Karahan met with representatives of the business community and civil society in Gaziantep as part of the “Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Outlook” meetings. Karahan emphasized that timely and high-quality information gathered through direct engagement with the real sector feeds directly into monetary policy decision-making, with expectations and recommendations also shared with relevant...
Read More

* The Treasury raised TL143.6bn through yesterday’s direct sales of a 1-year gold-denominated bond and a 1-year gold-denominated lease certificate. As a result, it has completed its January domestic borrowing program, raising TL479.6bn in total — slightly below the initial target of TL487.7bn. The Treasury’s next three-month domestic borrowing strategy (Feb – Apr 2026) will be announced on January 30 at 17:30 pm...
Read More

* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 1y gold-denominated bond and a 1y gold-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for January.  According to the Treasury’s Jan – Mar 2026 domestic borrowing strategy, total redemptions of TL613.3bn scheduled for January are set to be met through three direct sales and seven auctions, with planned domestic borrowing amounting to...
Read More

*Credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s are scheduled to release Türkiye’s sovereign rating review today. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. Any potential announcement would be expected after market close. At its latest July 25 review, Moody’s upgraded Türkiye’s sovereign credit rating to...
Read More

* We expect the CBT to deliver a 150bp rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 36.5%, at today’s rate-setting meeting. Yet, the current macro backdrop and the balance of risks suggest that a more cautious move also remains on the table. Accordingly, while a 150bp cut constitutes our base case, we do not rule out a 100bp reduction. We see little justification for a cut of 200bp or more at this stage. Our current...
Read More

* Housing sales increased by 80.6% m/m and 19.8% y/y in December, reaching 254,777 units. As a result, total housing sales in 2025 amounted to 1,688,910 units, representing a 14.3% increase compared to the previous year. Mortgage-backed sales rose by 35.6% m/m and 25.2% y/y in December to 29,149 units. On an annual basis, mortgage-backed housing sales surged by 49.3% y/y in 2025, reaching 236,680 units....
Read More

*TURKSTAT will release December house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales declined by 14.1% m/m and 7.8% y/y in November, falling to 141,100 units, indicating that the recovery observed in recent months lost momentum as of November. While cumulative housing sales over the Jan – Nov period increased by 13.3% y/y to 1,434,133 units, the latest data point to a weakening trend on the demand side toward the...
Read More

* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for December @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 2.7% m/m and 31.4% y/y in November, reaching 204.2, while real house prices recorded a 0.3% annual increase. As a result, the annual real change in RPPI turned positive for the first time since January 2024. This indicates that, despite the weakening observed...
Read More