Daily Macro News

* The CBT will release the May Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the April survey, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations have increased by 1pp to 25.6% for market participants and by 0.6pp to 41.7% for the real sector, while remaining unchanged at 59.3% for households. For May, we observed that the 12-month ahead inflation expectations declined merely to...
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* The CBT will release the May Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined from 104.1 to 103.2 in April, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI fell from 103.2 to 100.8 — its lowest level since September. Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rate (CUR) edged down from 74.4% to 74.3% in April, with the seasonally adjusted...
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* The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose by 1.4% m/m and 32.9% y/y in April, reaching a level of 176.4. Yet, in real terms, the index posted an annual decline of 3.6%. Although the annual real depreciation in housing prices has persisted since February 2024, the pace of this depreciation has been moderating since October. Notably, the 3.6% year-on-year decline recorded in April marks the smallest real...
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* The Treasury will hold direct sales of 1-year gold-denominated bonds and lease certificates today, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for May. According to three-month (May – July 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury has a domestic redemption of TL160.7bn in May, while in return it plans to borrow TL187.5bn in total throughout the month via four auctions and two direct sales. Having already...
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* TURKSTAT will release April house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. House sales totaled 110,795 units in March, indicating a 1.8% decline m/m, while registering a 5.1% increase on an annual basis. It’s worth noting that the 5.1% annual rise in March represents the weakest year-on-year expansion in housing sales since June 2024. Moreover, mortgage-backed home sales rose by 8.6% m/m to 18,225 units, while posting a...
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* TURKSTAT will release March Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential IP (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) contracted by 1.6% m/m in January 2025, while the calendar adjusted IP decreased by 1.9% y/y. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) manufacturing PMI, which averaged 47.73 in 4Q24, showed little change in 1Q25, averaging 47.87. Accordingly, we expect IP...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 25 – May 2 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of April 25 – May 2, the net international reserves dropped further by USD2.1bn to USD33bn and the gross FX reserves slumped by USD2.5bn to...
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* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL35.3bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon and 7y FRN bond auctions. The Treasury issued a new 2y fixed-coupon bond yesterday, which will replace the February 10, 2027-maturity bond as Turkey’s new benchmark bond once it begins trading. The average cost of borrowing was 47.19% for 2y fixed-coupon auction, while the bid – to –...
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