Daily Macro News

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL467.2bn in September, alongside a primary cash deficit of TL193.3bn. This brought the cumulative Treasury cash deficit to TL1.9tn in Jan–Sep, while the primary cash balance recorded a surplus of TL312.5bn over the same period. We expect today's figures...
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* The current account posted a surplus of USD4.05bn in August, slightly below our forecast of USD4.4bn, while standing above the market median expectation of USD3.5bn. The cumulative current account deficit for Jan–Aug reached USD31.5bn, widening significantly from USD19.7bn in the same period last year. On a trailing 12-month basis, the current account deficit increased to USD42.1bn from USD41.5bn in July....
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*The CBT will release August Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a surplus of USD4.4bn in August. Our projections point to a narrowing in the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to USD2bn, with net travel revenues exceeding USD7bn and the services surplus reaching around USD9.5bn. We maintain our year-end current account deficit forecast at...
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* The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) index declined by 1% m/m in August, while calendar-adjusted annual IP contracted by 1.9% y/y. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline in industrial production, consistent with the weakness signaled by foreign trade data and other leading indicators. A breakdown by major industrial sectors shows that...
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* TURKSTAT will release August industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. Foreign trade data provide important signals for the industrial production outlook. The trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy suggests that weakness in industrial activity persisted into August. Other leading indicators for the month also point to a possible further contraction in industrial...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money and banking statistics, and international reserves for the September 25 – October 2 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross reserves declined by USD4.1bn to USD167.1bn, while net reserves increased slightly by USD185mn to USD53.5bn during the week. We expect today’s...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The Treasury cash balance posted a surplus of TL49.8bn in August, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of TL209.6bn. The central government budget also registered a surplus of TL12.9bn in August, alongside a primary surplus of TL209.9bn. The return of the budget balance to surplus was driven by a 17.2% m/m...
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* The CBT will release September Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Based on the average change in the equally weighted currency basket in September, the monthly inflation outturn, and our assumption for the weighted geometric foreign price index derived from inflation forecasts for Turkey’s trading partners, we estimate that the CPI-based real effective exchange rate will point to a...
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