Daily Macro News

* The real effective exchange rate (REER) declined broadly in line with our house expectation in December, falling to 71.1 and implying nearly 1% real depreciation. The decline was primarily driven by the nominal exchange rate increasing at a faster pace than consumer price inflation. As a result, the Turkish lira recorded a second consecutive month of real depreciation against its equally weighted currency...
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* The Treasury will hold 5y fixed coupon bond auction as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL77.8bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 12m G-bond and 4y FRN bond auctions. The FRN auction drew exceptionally strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 8.06x and a term rate of 19.49%. In the 12m G-bond auction, the...
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* TURKSTAT will release December inflation data today @ 10:00 local time. We expect December CPI to rise by 0.8% m/m, slightly below the market consensus of around 1%. In case of the monthly realization to align with our forecast, year-end inflation for 2025 would decline to 30.8%. We project annual CPI to stand at 23% by end-2026. Our forecast is built on the assumption that, following the removal of excess...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey December Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.5 to 48.0 in November, marking its highest reading since February. yet, the index remained below the 50-threshold for the 20th consecutive month, signaling that the deterioration in manufacturing activity conditions persisted. The PMI reading suggests that the...
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* TURKSTAT will release November foreign trade figures @ 10:00 local time. The Ministry of Trade’s preliminary figures point to a modest widening in the foreign trade deficit in November. According to the preliminary figures, exports increased by 2.2% y/y to USD22.7bn, while imports rose by 2.6% y/y to USD30.5bn in November. Accordingly, the monthly trade deficit widened slightly to USD7.8bn in November, up from...
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* The CBT has published its 2026 Monetary Policy framework, reaffirming price stability as the primary objective. Within the 5% inflation target (±2pp uncertainty band), the Bank underscores that monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be conducted within a framework in which the policy rate remains the main instrument, supported by interim targets and a published forecast path, and reinforced by macroprudential...
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* The CBT will release the December Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. As of this month, market participants’ 2025...
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*The CBT will release the December Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) remained unchanged at 100.8 in November, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 102 to 103.2, which stands for the highest level since March. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) rose from 74.2% to 74.4%, and the seasonally...
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