Daily Macro News

*Credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s are scheduled to release Türkiye’s sovereign rating review today. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. Any potential announcement would be expected after market close. At its latest July 25 review, Moody’s upgraded Türkiye’s sovereign credit rating to...
Read More

* We expect the CBT to deliver a 150bp rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 36.5%, at today’s rate-setting meeting. Yet, the current macro backdrop and the balance of risks suggest that a more cautious move also remains on the table. Accordingly, while a 150bp cut constitutes our base case, we do not rule out a 100bp reduction. We see little justification for a cut of 200bp or more at this stage. Our current...
Read More

* Housing sales increased by 80.6% m/m and 19.8% y/y in December, reaching 254,777 units. As a result, total housing sales in 2025 amounted to 1,688,910 units, representing a 14.3% increase compared to the previous year. Mortgage-backed sales rose by 35.6% m/m and 25.2% y/y in December to 29,149 units. On an annual basis, mortgage-backed housing sales surged by 49.3% y/y in 2025, reaching 236,680 units....
Read More

*TURKSTAT will release December house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales declined by 14.1% m/m and 7.8% y/y in November, falling to 141,100 units, indicating that the recovery observed in recent months lost momentum as of November. While cumulative housing sales over the Jan – Nov period increased by 13.3% y/y to 1,434,133 units, the latest data point to a weakening trend on the demand side toward the...
Read More

* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for December @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 2.7% m/m and 31.4% y/y in November, reaching 204.2, while real house prices recorded a 0.3% annual increase. As a result, the annual real change in RPPI turned positive for the first time since January 2024. This indicates that, despite the weakening observed...
Read More

* The CBT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s latest Market Participants Survey for December 2025, participants revised their 2025 year-end CPI expectation down to 31.2% from 32.2%, while the 2026 year-end CPI forecast edged slightly higher to 23.4% from 23.2%. In addition, the 24-month-ahead CPI expectation declined to...
Read More

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
Read More

* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
Read More