Daily Macro News

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release October central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL195.9bn in October, while the primary balance registered a deficit of TL36bn. Over the first ten months of the year, the cumulative cash deficit reached TL1.8tn, with the primary deficit amounting to TL137.2bn. The October cash balance figures serve as a...
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* The CBT will release the results of the November Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the CBT’s Market Participants Survey for October 2025, participants’ inflation expectations for the coming periods deteriorated markedly following the higher-than-expected September inflation print. Accordingly, the 2025 year-end CPI expectation rose to 31.77% in October...
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* TURKSTAT will release October house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales rose to 150,657 units in September, marking an annual increase of 6.9% and a 5.1% rise m/m. Moreover, mortgage-backed sales increased by 7.9% m/m and 34.4% y/y, reaching 21,266 units during the same month. Housing loan rates, which had hovered above 43% since June, declined to below 39%, with the average mortgage rate standing at...
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* The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets at an amount of TL34.1bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7m G-bond auction. The bid-to-cover ratio stood high at 2.94x, while the average cost of borrowing was 41.13%. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it...
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*The Treasury will hold a 7-month zero coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a rollover ratio of 135%. The November borrowing program will begin today with the auction of a 7-month zero-coupon...
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*The CBT will unveil the 4thd Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. Between 10:30 am - 11:00 am, Governor Fatih Karahan will present the...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of October 24 – 31 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of October 24 – 31, gross FX reserves dropped by USD1.7bn to USD183.9bn. To recall the previous week’s data: In the week of October 17 – 24, there...
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* The real effective exchange rate (REER) rose by 1.5% in October to 71.87. Accordingly, the Turkish lira recorded its third consecutive month of real appreciation against the equally weighted currency basket, with a cumulative gain of 3.6% over the past three months. Since the beginning of the year, however, the lira has depreciated by a cumulative 0.5% in real terms against the...
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