Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release the October Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) decreased from 100.6 level to in September, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 100.6 to 100.8. Accordingly, the unadjusted RSCI, which averaged 101.6 in the second quarter of the year, retreated to 100.3 in the third quarter. It is...
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* The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the policy rate by 100bps, from 40.5% to 39.5%. Our baseline scenario had assumed a 150bps cut, though we had not ruled out a smaller adjustment. A closer look at the details reveals that the October MPC statement adopted a visibly more cautious tone compared to September, suggesting rising upside risks to our year-end policy rate forecast of 37.5%. Against this...
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*TURKSTAT will release October Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index slid merely from 84.3 to 83.9 level in September. Examining quarterly averages, the index averaged 89.3 in 3Q25 following an average level of 84.6 in 2Q25. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism...
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*Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of October 10 – 17, net international reserves increased by USD2.5bn to USD81.6bn, while gross FX reserves soared notably by USD8.8bn to USD198.6bn. Accordingly, our calculations point to gross foreign exchange reserves reaching an all-time high. We anticipate that the official reserve data, to be released on...
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* The CBT released its Market Participants Survey for October 2025. Following the higher-than-expected September inflation print, participants’ inflation expectations for the coming periods deteriorated markedly. Accordingly, the 2025 year-end CPI expectation rose to 31.77% in October from 29.86% previously. In addition, the 12-month-ahead CPI expectation increased from 22.25% to 23.26%, while the 24-month-ahead...
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* The CBT will release the results of the October Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. Following the significantly higher than expected September inflation print, we anticipate a palpable deterioration in market participants’ year-end inflation expectations. Please recall that, in the latest survey results released for September, the year-end 2025 inflation expectation rose to 29.86%,...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for September @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose by 2.5% m/m and 31.4% y/y in August, reaching a level of 192.5. Yet, in real terms, the index posted an annual decline of 1.2%. Although the annual real depreciation in housing prices has persisted uninterruptedly since February 2024, the pace of this depreciation has...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release September central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The central government budget posted a surplus of TL96.7bn in August, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of TL276.4bn. In the same period last year, the budget recorded a deficit of TL129.6bn and a primary deficit of TL32.5bn in the same month of last year. On a 12-month rolling basis, the...
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