Daily Macro News

*The Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL97.2bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 8m G-bond and 4y TLREF-indexed bons auctions. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 3.12x for today’s new issuance of 4y TLREF-indexed auction, indicating high demand, while the term rate was 24.68%. For 8m G-bond auction, the...
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*The Treasury will hold 8m zero coupon and 4y TLREF-indexed bond auctions today. According to three-month (July – September 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury has a domestic redemption of TL316.6bn in July, while in return it plans to borrow TL376.4bn in total throughout the month, indicating a roll-over ratio of 119%. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold 7y FRN and 9y fixed coupon bond...
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*The CBT will release June Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for June, we expect the REER to ease from 71.1 to 70.1, implying a 1.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release June seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we forecast the...
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* TURKSTAT will release the June inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We expect CPI to rise by 1.38% m/m in June, lower than the median estimate at 1.5%. Should the monthly figure materialize in line with our forecast, annual inflation edge down from 35.4% to 35.1%. A monthly reading below 1.5%, aligned with our forecast, would likely fuel market expectations for a policy rate cut by the CBT. However, even...
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* The state-run natural gas distributor Botas hiked the natural gas prices by 24.6% for residential use. The direct impact of the price increase on the CPI will be around 0.45pp. Considering the indirect effects, we anticipate a higher overall impact on headline. However, with the prevailing positive base effect, we expect the annual CPI to sustain its decline in July, potentially falling below 34%. * Istanbul...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey June Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.3 to 47.2 in May, marking the lowest reading so far this year and the weakest since October 2024. Remaining below the 50-threshold since March 2024, the index continues to signal a sustained loss of momentum in manufacturing activity for over a year. The accompanying...
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* May Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate climbed from 8% to 8.6% in April. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment – rose sharply from 28.8% to 32.2%, marking an all-time high and signaling a pronounced weakening in...
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*TURKSTAT will release June Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index remained virtually unchanged in May, inching up by just 0.1 points from 96.6 to 96.7. As per the sub-components of May data: The consumer confidence index rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis to 84.8, while the real sector confidence index declined by 2.2% to 98.6. Moreover, the services confidence index climbed 0.9%...
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