Daily Macro News

*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey April Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI decreased from 48.3 in March to 47.3, marking its lowest level since October. Consequently, the manufacturing PMI, which averaged 47.73 in 4Q24, showed little change in 1Q25, averaging 47.87. In this context, we expect industrial production (IP) in the first quarter of this year...
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*TURKSTAT will release March foreign trade figures 10:00 local time. Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade indicates a modest reduction in the trade deficit for March. According to the preliminary figures, exports rose by 3.2% y/y to USD23.4bn, while imports increased by 2.3%, amounting to USD30.7bn. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed from USD7.8bn in February to USD7.3bn in March, with the...
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* March Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% to 8.2% in February. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment— dropped from 28.2% to 24%, which stands for the lowest level since February 2024. The combined...
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* Credit rating agency S&P affirmed Turkey’s long-term sovereign credit rating at ‘BB-’ with a "stable" outlook, in line with our house estimate and the market consensus. S&P stated that its affirmation reflects the view that, despite recent increases in exchange rate volatility and a decline in foreign exchange reserves, Turkish authorities are expected to maintain policies aimed at reducing...
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* The CBT will release the April Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the March Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations continued to decline among market participants and the real economy, while household expectations increased for the second consecutive month, albeit modestly. Hence, as per the March survey results,...
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* The CBT will release the April Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) further improved to 104.1, which stands for the highest level since May, up from 102.4 in March, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased from 102.8 to 103.2. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) showed a modest change, with the unadjusted CUR...
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*TURKSTAT will release April Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Consumer Confidence Index increased further to 85.9 in March, up from 82.1, marking the highest level since May 2023. Accordingly, after averaging 80.6 in 4Q24, the index has materialized at an average level of 83 in 1Q25. Following weak signals of economic activity reflected in January’s leading indicators, the February data pointed to...
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* The short-term external debt stock in February materialized at USD13.2bn, down by 1.3% m/m. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD223.6bn as of February 2025. Of this total, USD19.2bn is attributed to loans taken by...
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