Daily Macro News

* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for March @ 10:00 local time. According to the latest results of the February survey, respondents revised their year-end 2026 CPI forecast upward to 24.1% from 23.2%, while the year-end 2027 inflation expectation increased to 18.4% from 17.8%. Expectations for CPI inflation 24 months ahead edged up to 17.1% from 16.9%, and the five-year-ahead...
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*The CBT will release January Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a USD6.5bn deficit in January. We forecast the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to narrow modestly to USD7.3bn, while the services balance surplus is likely to come in at around USD2.7bn. In light of the surge in energy prices following the US – Iran tensions, we revise our...
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* The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) contracted by 2.8% m/m in January, following two consecutive months of expansion, while the calendar-adjusted annual change pointed to a 1.8% decline, signaling that the weakness in the annual trend remains in place. A closer look at the subcomponents suggests that the monthly decline was largely driven by the...
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* The Treasury will hold 10m G-bond and 5y CPI-indexed bound auctions today. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the March – May 2026 period, the Treasury plans to borrow a total of TL315.5bn from the domestic market in March against redemptions of TL394.3bn, implying a rollover ratio of approximately 80%. Having already borrowed below the redemption amount in February, the Treasury appears set to...
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* The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL92.4bn in February, while the primary balance registered a surplus of TL90.9bn. This brought the cumulative cash deficit in the first two months of the year to TL338.7bn. February Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government budget data due to be released on Monday, March 16. While our 2026 budget deficit forecast currently...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release February cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. The central government budget posted a deficit of TL214.5bn in January, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of TL241.8bn. Accordingly, the 12-month cumulative budget deficit edged up modestly from TL1.8tn to TL1.87tn, whereas the primary surplus widened markedly from TL255.3bn to TL473.4bn. The Treasury cash...
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*Following the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by escalating US–Iran tensions, a Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette introduced revisions to the échelle mobile tax mechanism applied to gasoline, diesel and LPG products. Under the new framework, if increases in international oil prices or exchange rates lead to a rise in domestic refinery gate prices, the Special Consumption Tax (SCT) applied to...
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*The CBT will release February Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change for February, we expect the REER to increase from 102.17 to 103.6, implying a 1.4% real appreciation of the Turkish lira. * TURSTAT will release February seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our...
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