Daily Macro News

*The CBT will release January Real Effective Exchange Rate today @14:30 local time. Taking into account the inflation realizations and the average Basket/TRY change, we expect the REER to rise to 69.2 in January, up from 67.1 in the previous month, reflecting a 3.1% real appreciation of the TL. * The CBT will release the Monthly Price Developments report for January today @18:00 local time. The report is a...
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* TURKSTAT will release January inflation figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the CPI to increase by 4.1% m/m in January, bringing the annual CPI down from 44.4% to 40.9%. According to the survey conducted by Foreks, the market consensus points to a slightly higher monthly inflation estimate of 4.3%. For 2025, we expect the downward tendency in inflation to persist; however, we project the pace of decline to...
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*Credit rating agency Fitch is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. Please recall that Fitch last raised Turkey’s credit rating from "B+" to...
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*TURKSTAT will release January Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index increased by 1.8% m/m in December, rising from 97.1 to 98.8. Analyzing the three-month averages, the index level rose from 96.7 to 98 as of December. However, it is noteworthy that the index has remained below the critical threshold value of 100 since March. The Economic Confidence Index, which ranges between...
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* According to the January Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey results, the decline in the 12-month ahead annual CPI expectations continued to decline, with the decrease accelerating significantly compared to the previous month. According to the January survey results, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 1.7 points to 25.4% for market participants, by 3.8 points to 43.8% for the real...
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* The CBT will release the January Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the December survey results, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased further by 0.1 points to 27.1% for market participants, by 0.2 points to 47.6% for the real sector and by 1 point to 63.1% for households. Please recall that in the November survey results, 12-month ahead annual inflation...
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* Credit rating agency Moody’s, which was expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review on Friday, opted not to make a rating action and instead announced the completion of a periodic review of ratings of Turkey. Market participants had anticipated Moody’s to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating by one notch and revise the credit outlook from “positive” to “stable.” It’s important to note that these calendars are...
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*Credit rating agency Moody’s is expected to release Turkey’s sovereign rating review today. Any possible review announcement would likely come late at night Turkish time. It’s important to note that these calendars are only reference points and do not guarantee that the agencies will conduct a review or make a new rating decision. We expect Moody’s to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating by one notch, from “B1” to “...
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