Daily Macro News

* During the week of 8 – 15 August, foreign investors were net buyers of USD125mn in the equity market and USD1.1bn in the government bond market (excluding repo transactions), marking the strongest weekly foreign inflow into bond market over the past six weeks. Consequently, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock increased from 6.4% to 6.7%. Moreover, the residents’ FX deposits declined by USD934mn (excluding...
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* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of 1y USD-denominated bond & 1y USD-denominated lease certificate today, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for August. According to its three-month (August – October 2025) domestic borrowing program, the Treasury faces a hefty domestic redemption of TL339bn in August, while in return it plans to borrow TL440.8bn in total throughout the month, indicating a...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL142.3bn in total (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 6.58x for 4y TLREF-indexed auction, indicating high demand, while the term rate was 23.98%. For 5y fixed coupon auction, the average cost of borrowing was 36.12% and bid – to – cover ratio stood at 1.76x.  Accordingly, the total...
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* The Treasury will hold 4y TLREF & 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL28.1bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 7y FRN bond auction. The bid – to – cover ratio was high at 9.61x, indicating robust demand, while the real compounded rate materialized at 22.14%. Accordingly, the total domestic borrowing for the month reached TL164.1bn....
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* The CBT extended the loan growth measurement period from four weeks to eight, with credit growth limits remaining unchanged. By doubling the assessment horizon, banks will operate under a more flexible framework, as they are granted additional time to align credit expansion with regulatory thresholds. We also view the extension as a step that will allow credit growth to be monitored in a more stable and...
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* The CBT will release the August Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the July Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey, 12 month ahead inflation expectations fell by 1.2pp to 23.4% for market participants and by 0.8pp to 39% for the real sector, while rising by 1.5pp to 54.5% for households. We estimate that the escalation of tensions and the outbreak of war between...
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*The CBT will unveil the 3rd Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. Between 10:30 am - 11:00 am, Governor Fatih Karahan will present the...
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* TURKSTAT will release July house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales rose to 107,723 units in June, marking a robust 35.8% increase on an annual basis, while contracting by 17.2% compared to the previous month. Mortgage-backed sales recorded a particularly sharp annual gain of 112.6% during the period, reaching 14,484 units, though monthly sales declined by 25.4%. Turning to mortgage interest rate...
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