Daily Macro News

*The Treasury will hold 3y CPI-indexed and 6y FRN auctions bond auctions today. The Treasury borrowed a total of TL78bn from domestic markets yesterday, including non-competitive sales, via its 6m G-bond auction. The average cost of borrowing was 43.97%, with the bid-to-cover ratio standing high at 2.8x. With yesterday’s 6m G-bond auction, the total domestic borrowing of the Treasury in January has reached TL214bn....
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*The Treasury will hold 6m G-bond auction today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL136bn so far this month. After today’s single auctions, the Treasury will hold 3y CPI-indexed and 6y FRN auctions tomorrow and the direct sales of 1y gold-denominated bond & 1y gold-denominated lease certificate on January 24th and finalize its domestic borrowing program for January. According to...
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* The CBRT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the December survey results, the 12-month ahead (2025YE) annual CPI expectation was revised down merely to 27.1%, from 27.2%, while the 24-month ahead annual CPI expectation rose slightly to 18.5%, up from 18.2%. Today’s survey results will be closely monitored for any significant...
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* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of January 3 – 10 today @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of January 3 – 10, the net international reserves increased further by USD2.11bn to USD69.73bn and the gross FX reserves climbed by USD2.52bn...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. Considering the seasonal impacts on budget dynamics, we project a deficit of approximately TL640bn in December, bringing the 2024 budget deficit to TL1.9tn (4.3% of GDP), slightly below the 2024 Medium-Term Economic Program (MTEP) projection of TL2.15tn (4.9% of GDP). With a significant portion of the...
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* The Treasury will hold 4y TLREF indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL49.3bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon bond auction. According to three-month (Jan – Mar 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL225.4bn in January, while in return plans to borrow TL293.8bn...
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* The Treasury will hold a 2y fixed coupon bond auction today. According to three-month (Jan – Mar 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL225.4bn in January, while in return plans to borrow TL293.8bn throughout the month, via six auctions and two direct sales. After today’s single auctions, the Treasury will hold 2y TLREF indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions...
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* We expect industrial production (IP) to exhibit a more limited contraction compared to the previous month. IP data for November will be released today @ 10:00 local time. To recall the previous month’s release: The sequential (the seasonal and calendar adjusted monthly figure) IP contracted by 0.9% m/m as of October, while the calendar adjusted IP narrowed by 3.1% y/y. Leading indicators for November suggest that...
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