Daily Macro News

* October Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment remained unchanged at 8.6% in September, while the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – consisting of time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment– decreased from 29.8% to 28.6%. Moreover, within the components, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment edged...
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* The CBT Governor Karahan spoke yesterday in a live broadcast on “Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Outlook” outlining the Bank’s policy stance, the ongoing rebalancing in domestic demand, and the disinflation process. He noted that the more than USD80bn increase in gross reserves has largely reflected resident FX conversions and highlighted the sharp decline in FX-protected deposits (KKM). Reaffirming price...
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* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real...
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* The CBT will release the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the October Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations diverged across sectors compared to the previous month. Expectations rose by 1.01pps to 23.26% among market participants and by 1.40pps to 54.39% among households, while declining by 0.50pps to 36.30% for...
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*The CBT will release the November Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) rose from 100.2 to 100.8 in October, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 100.8 to 102. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) inched up from 74.0% to 74.2%, and the seasonally adjusted CUR rose from 73.8% to 74.0%. An...
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* During the week of 7–14 November, foreign investors were net sellers of USD158.8mn in the equity market, while recording a net purchase of USD499.8mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions). This marked the third consecutive week of inflows into the bond market, bringing the three-week cumulative total to USD1.2bn. Meanwhile, the foreign share in the total government bond stock remained unchanged at 6.8%...
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* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a...
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* The short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD165.8bn, down by 1.9% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD224.8bn as of September 2025. Of this total, USD26.9bn is attributed to loans taken...
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