Daily Macro News

* We anticipate the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to initiate rate cuts with a 150bps reduction at today’s rate-setting, in line with the market consensus. The MPC decision will be announced @ 14:00 local time. However, the CBRT has recently published its Monetary Policy for 2025 document and stated that in 2025, the MPC will hold 8 meetings instead of 12. Following the announcement of fewer meetings for the...
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* The CBRT will release December Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) eased to 100.4 level from 100.9 as of November, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased to 103.4 from 102.2. In addition, the unadjusted Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) edged up to 76.1% from 74.9%, while the adjusted CUR rose to 75.6% from 75.2% level as...
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* Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 13 – 20, the net international reserves dropped by USD3.7bn to USD61.7bn and the gross FX reserves slumped by USD7.2bn to USD156.4bn. The official data for the CBRT’s international reserves will be announced on Thursday at 14:30 local...
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* The CBRT released the results of the December Market Participants’ Expectations Survey. According to the survey results, 2024YE CPI estimate increased further to 45.3% from 44.8%. Moreover, the 12-month ahead annual CPI expectation was revised down merely to 27.1%, from 27.2%, while the 24-month ahead annual CPI expectation rose slightly to 18.5%, up from 18.2%. We expect 2024 YE CPI at 45.4%, while we anticipate...
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* The CBRT will release the results of the December Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. Following the inflation realizations for November surpassing expectations, we anticipate that in the December survey, participants' year-end CPI expectations for 2024 may rise slightly above 45%. We expect the annual CPI to conclude this year at 45.4%, with a reduction to 26% by the end of...
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* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and gross & net international reserves for the period of December 6 – 13 6 today @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 6 – 13, the gross FX reserves rose by USD4bn to USD163.6bn, indicating a record high level, and the net...
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* TURKSTAT will release November home sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Total home sales climbed by 17.2% m/m and 79.1% y/y in October to 165,138 units. Mortgaged home house sales, which accounted for 12.8% of all home sales in October, soared by 33.3% m/m and 278.2% y/y to 21,095. Moreover, home sales to foreigners, which represented 1.3% share of all home sales in October, decreased by 4.7% m/m and 16.3% y/y to...
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* The Treasury will hold 3y CPI-indexed and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for December. The Treasury borrowed TL31.9bn (including non-competitive sales) from the domestic markets via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon and 6y FRN bond auctions and the total domestic borrowing so far this month has reached TL110.3bn....
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