Daily Macro News

*The Treasury will hold a 7-month zero coupon bond auction today. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a rollover ratio of 135%. The November borrowing program will begin today with the auction of a 7-month zero-coupon...
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*The CBT will unveil the 4thd Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. Between 10:30 am - 11:00 am, Governor Fatih Karahan will present the...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of October 24 – 31 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of October 24 – 31, gross FX reserves dropped by USD1.7bn to USD183.9bn. To recall the previous week’s data: In the week of October 17 – 24, there...
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* The real effective exchange rate (REER) rose by 1.5% in October to 71.87. Accordingly, the Turkish lira recorded its third consecutive month of real appreciation against the equally weighted currency basket, with a cumulative gain of 3.6% over the past three months. Since the beginning of the year, however, the lira has depreciated by a cumulative 0.5% in real terms against the...
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* TURKSTAT will release October inflation data today @ 10:00 local time. We expect the monthly CPI to rise by 2.71% in October, slightly lower than the market consensus at 2.8% (Bloomberg). A realization in line with our forecast would imply a modest decline in annual CPI from 33.3% to 33.1%. For the coming period, we anticipate a notable slowdown in monthly inflation over the final two months of the year, with CPI...
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* TURKSTAT will release September foreign trade figures @ 10:00 local time. Preliminary foreign trade data released by the Ministry of Trade for September point to a renewed widening in the foreign trade deficit. According to the preliminary figures, exports rose by 3% y/y to USD22.6bn, while imports increased by 8.8% y/y to USD29.5bn, indicating that the foreign trade deficit widened from USD4.2bn in August to...
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* TURKSTAT will release October Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index edged up by a mere 0.1% in September to 98, remaining below the 100 – threshold. Having lingered under this benchmark since March, the index continues to reflect a predominantly pessimistic perception of the overall economic outlook. A breakdown of the September sub-indices presents a mixed picture: the...
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* The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) rose from 100.2 to 100.8 in October, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 100.8 to 102. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) inched up from 74.0% to 74.2%, and the seasonally adjusted CUR rose from 73.8% to 74.0%. An analysis of the subcomponents of the RSCI indicates that assessments regarding current inventories of final goods, current...
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