Daily Macro News

* We expect the CBT to deliver a 150bp rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 36.5%, at today’s rate-setting meeting. Yet, the current macro backdrop and the balance of risks suggest that a more cautious move also remains on the table. Accordingly, while a 150bp cut constitutes our base case, we do not rule out a 100bp reduction. We see little justification for a cut of 200bp or more at this stage. Our current...
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* Housing sales increased by 80.6% m/m and 19.8% y/y in December, reaching 254,777 units. As a result, total housing sales in 2025 amounted to 1,688,910 units, representing a 14.3% increase compared to the previous year. Mortgage-backed sales rose by 35.6% m/m and 25.2% y/y in December to 29,149 units. On an annual basis, mortgage-backed housing sales surged by 49.3% y/y in 2025, reaching 236,680 units....
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*TURKSTAT will release December house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales declined by 14.1% m/m and 7.8% y/y in November, falling to 141,100 units, indicating that the recovery observed in recent months lost momentum as of November. While cumulative housing sales over the Jan – Nov period increased by 13.3% y/y to 1,434,133 units, the latest data point to a weakening trend on the demand side toward the...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for December @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 2.7% m/m and 31.4% y/y in November, reaching 204.2, while real house prices recorded a 0.3% annual increase. As a result, the annual real change in RPPI turned positive for the first time since January 2024. This indicates that, despite the weakening observed...
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* The CBT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s latest Market Participants Survey for December 2025, participants revised their 2025 year-end CPI expectation down to 31.2% from 32.2%, while the 2026 year-end CPI forecast edged slightly higher to 23.4% from 23.2%. In addition, the 24-month-ahead CPI expectation declined to...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
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*The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 10y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. In yesterday’s auctions, covering a 2y fixed-coupon bond and a 5y CPI-linked bond, the Treasury raised TL78.3bn, including non-competitive sales. Demand at the 2y fixed-coupon auction was robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield settled at 36.87%. Despite a relatively...
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