Daily Macro News

* The CBT has published its 2026 Monetary Policy framework, reaffirming price stability as the primary objective. Within the 5% inflation target (±2pp uncertainty band), the Bank underscores that monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be conducted within a framework in which the policy rate remains the main instrument, supported by interim targets and a published forecast path, and reinforced by macroprudential...
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* The CBT will release the December Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. As of this month, market participants’ 2025...
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*The CBT will release the December Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) remained unchanged at 100.8 in November, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 102 to 103.2, which stands for the highest level since March. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) rose from 74.2% to 74.4%, and the seasonally...
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* The minimum wage for 2026 has been announced at TL28,075, reflecting a 27% increase. Following the third meeting of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission held yesterday, the gross minimum wage was set at TL33,030, while the net minimum wage was announced at TL28,075. The total cost to employers amounts to TL39,553. Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan also stated that the minimum wage support...
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* Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 12 – 19, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD1.4bn to USD192.3bn, while net international reserves rose by USD0.8bn to USD80.3bn. The CBT is scheduled to release its official reserve data later this week, on Thursday, 25 December, at 14:30. We expect the official figures to confirm an increase...
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* The consumer confidence index edged down from 85 level to 83.5 level in December, which stands for the lowest level since July. As a result, the index, which averaged 83.9 in 3Q25, remained broadly unchanged in the final quarter of the year, posting an average of 84. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and...
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*TURKSTAT will release December Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index edged up from 83.6 to 85 level in November. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism when it exceeds that threshold. A breakdown of the November consumer confidence index reveals the following: The...
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* The CBT will release October short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. The short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD165.8bn, down by 1.9% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at...
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