Daily Macro News

* The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) published an interim decision note, while introducing TL and FX liquidity measures to limit market volatility. Yesterday, we closely monitored a series of actions taken by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). Initially, the CBT announced the initiation of TL-settled forward FX sale auctions to curb potential volatility in exchange rates and ensure balanced foreign currency...
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*TL assets plunged yesterday amid rising political unrest. In the midst of a flurry of domestic political angst, Turkish assets saw a sharp sell-off yesterday. The USDTRY surged past 41.50, while the EURTRY soared above 45.20, both marking record highs. Meanwhile, Turkey 10-year bond yield climbed above the 30% level. After hitting record levels, exchange rates saw a rapid pullback, yet they remained at elevated...
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* The Treasury borrowed TL71.1bn from the domestic markets (including non-competitive sales) through yesterday’s 3y CPI-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions. For the CPI-indexed auction, the bid – to – cover ratio stood at 2.47x, indicating robust demand, and the real compounded rate came in at 5.18%. For the fixed coupon auction, the bid – to -cover ratio was weak at 1.81x and the average cost of borrowing...
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* The Treasury will hold 3y CPI-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for March. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets for TL21.1bn (including non-competitive sales) through yesterday’s 7y FRN bond auction and total domestic borrowing so far this month has reached TL123.4bn. According to the three-month (Mar–May 2025) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury...
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* The Treasury will hold a 7y FRN bond auction today. After today’s single auction, the Treasury will hold 3y CPI-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions tomorrow, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for March. According to the three-month (Mar – May 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL124.7bn in March, while in return plans to borrow TL201.2bn throughout the...
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* During the week of February 28 – March 7, foreign investors recorded a net purchase of USD216.3mn in the equity market, marking the strongest foreign inflow since the week of January 24. Meanwhile, they were net sellers in the bond market (excluding repo transactions), registering an outflow of USD159.mn, which led to a slight decline in their share of the total bond stock to 8.1% from 8.2%. In ytd terms, there...
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* TURKSTAT will release February house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. House sales declined to 112,173 units in January, indicating the lowest level since June 2024. This represents a sharp 47.2% monthly contraction, yet a 39.7% y/y increase. Please recall that housing sales had surged to a three-year high of 212,637 units in December 2024. Notably, in January, mortgage-backed home sales fell by 28.1% m/m to...
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* We expect the January Current Account Balance to post a deficit of USD4.5bn, above the median estimate of USD3.3bn according to the survey conducted by ForInvest.  We would like to reiterate that we have recently revised our 2025 year-end current account deficit forecast to USD 22bn (1.5% of GDP) from USD 15bn (1% of GDP), based on the assumptions that: (i) the real appreciation of the Turkish lira will persist...
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