Daily Macro News

* The sequential IP (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) contracted by 3.1% m/m in April, while the calendar adjusted IP rose by 3.3% y/y. A breakdown by sub-sectors reveals that the mining and quarrying index fell by 2.5% and the manufacturing index declined by 3.4%, whereas the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply index posted a modest 0.2% increase on a monthly basis. Preliminary...
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* TURKSTAT will release April Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. April foreign trade data offer valuable input for our IP forecasts. In April, imports of intermediate goods excluding gold and energy recorded a relatively strong increase—rising by 14.6% m/m and 13.7% y/y. Another leading indicator of industrial activity, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI,...
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* The Treasury recorded a cash surplus of TL247.1 in May, bringing the cumulative cash deficit in the Jan-May period to TL837.4bn. It is worth noting that the sizeable surplus recorded in May was largely driven by a surge in corporate tax revenues, stemming from the structural impact of the removal of the fourth corporate provisional tax payment, which was abolished starting in May 2023. The removal of this...
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* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of May 23 – 30 @ 12:00 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of May 23 – 30, net international reserves increased by USD1.5bn to USD49.4bn, while gross FX reserves edged up by USD186mn to USD153.5bn. We anticipate...
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*The CBT will release May Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation data and the average Basket/TRY change for May, we expect the REER to ease from 72.12 to 71.77, implying a 0.5% real depreciation of the Turkish lira. In case the REER declines by 0.5% in May, in line with our calculations, the Turkish lira’s cumulative real depreciation over the past three months would...
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* TURKSTAT will release the May inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We forecast a monthly CPI increase of 2.1% for May, in line with the market consensus, which would bring the annual inflation rate to 36.2% from the previous month’s 37.9%. We continue to project year-end inflation at 31%. * Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.3 to 47.2 in May, marking the lowest...
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*Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey May Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 47.3 in April, holding at its lowest level since October. Persistently below the 50-threshold since March 2024, the PMI continues to signal a sustained slowdown in manufacturing sector activity. Following an average of 47.73 in...
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*TURKSTAT will release 1Q25 GDP figures today @ 10:00 local time. We estimate annual GDP growth at 2.3% for the first quarter. According to the survey conducted by ForInvest, the market median forecast stands slightly below our projection, at 2.2% y/y for 1Q25. While leading indicators have yet to point to a palpable loss of momentum, we anticipate a more pronounced deceleration in the real sector and a broader...
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