Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release October short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. The short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD165.8bn, down by 1.9% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD224.8bn as of September 2025. Of this total, USD26.9bn is attributed to loans taken by resident banks and private sector affiliates from their branches and affiliates abroad. Stripping this amount from the total results in USD197.9bn. We also add 12-month forward-looking CAD expectations on this amount so as to reach Turkey’s annual external financing need (EFN).  Accordingly, we calculate EFN as of September 2025 around USD223bn.

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of December 5 – 12 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 5 – 12, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD4.3bn to USD191bn, while net international reserves rose by USD1.9bn to USD79.3bn. We expect today’s official reserve data to broadly confirm this improvement. To recall the previous week’s data: Foreign investors were net buyers of USD154.3mn in equities during the week of 28 November – 5 December, while recording a modest USD23.7mn outflow from the bond market (excluding repo transactions). In ytd terms, foreign investors have registered USD1.6bn of net inflows into the equity market and USD2.6bn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions). During the same period, the residents’ FX deposits slumped by USD2.6bn (excluding gold, EUR/USD parity effect adjusted), while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) decreased by USD2bn. In terms of official reserves, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD3.2bn, net international reserves soared by USD5.4bn to USD77.4bn and net reserves excluding swaps rose by USD4.3bn to USD61.9bn.