Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are starting the new week with the backdrop of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela; however, equity markets are broadly maintaining a positive tone. Despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s contribution to global supply has fallen below 1% in recent years. Therefore, following the U.S. intervention, a contraction in oil supply is not anticipated; on the contrary, an increase appears more likely. Within the geopolitical framework, the primary uncertainty centers on questions such as “Which regions or countries could be subject to similar U.S. actions?” and “How might China, Russia, and Iran respond?” Recent messages from the U.S. administration suggest that Cuba, Colombia, Greenland, and Denmark are in focus. While markets will continue to monitor these developments, the overall outlook this morning remains constructive. In Borsa Istanbul, the index rose by 2.1% on Friday. The top five positive contributors were AKBNK, KLRHO, YKBNK, SAHOL, and THYAO, while ASELS, PASEU, AKSEN, GENIL, and TURSG exerted negative pressure on the index. Stocks that have stood out with consistent fund inflows over the past week include KCHOL, GARAN, MGROS, ULKER, and TAVHL. The index closed Friday at 11,498, marking the second-highest close in BIST history, and we believe it has built sufficient momentum to test its all-time high of 11,605 during the week. The 11,400 level can be monitored as the first support. On today’s agenda, December data—and thus full-year 2025 inflation figures—will be in focus domestically. We expect annual CPI inflation to be announced within the 30.5%–31.0% range. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at around 205.