Macro and politics

* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and gross & net international reserves for the period of December 6 – 13 6 today @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of December 6 – 13, the gross FX reserves rose by USD4bn to USD163.6bn, indicating a record high level, and the net international reserves increased merely by USD370mn to USD65.4bn. To recall the data from the previous week (November 22 – 29): The equity and the bond market (excluding repo transactions) experienced a net foreign outflow of USD157.6mn and USD6102.3mn, respectively. Besides, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock slid merely to 7.5% from 7.6%. The residents’ FX deposits tumbled by USD2.5bn (gold accounts excluded, EUR/USD parity adjusted) in the period of November 29 – December 6, while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) decreased by USD2.7bn in the week of November 29 – December 6. Moreover, the CBRT’s gross FX reserves rose by USD1.7bn to USD159.5bn, while net international reserves increased by USD0.9bn to USD65bn. Moreover, net reserves excluding swaps also increased by USD2.6bn to USD48.3bn.

* Short-term external debt stock in October materialized at USD180.1bn, up by 2.3% compared to 2023YE. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within one year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD236.1bn as of September 2024. Out of this figure, USD22.9bn is debt to the resident banks and private sectors to the banks’ branches and affiliates abroad. Stripping this amount from the total results in USD213.2bn. We also add 12-month forward-looking CAD expectations on this amount so as to reach Turkey’s annual external financing need (EFN).  Accordingly, we calculate EFN as of October 2024 around USD228bn.