Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of July 25 – August 1 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of July 25 – August 1, the gross FX reserves slid by USD2.9bn to USD169.1bn, while net international reserves dropped by USD1.3bn to USD63.1bn. We expect today’s official figures to confirm a strong rebound, in line with our projections. To recall the CBT data from previous week: In the week of 18 – 25 July, foreigners registered a net purchase of USD205.2mn in the equity market and USD271mn in government bonds (excluding repo transactions). Thus, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock rose a tad from 6.3% to 6.4% within the mentioned week. Within the mentioned week, the residents’ FX deposits increased by USD1.1bn (excluding gold accounts and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect), while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) climbed by USD1.2bn during the week of 18 – 25 July. Examining the CBT’s reserves reveals that during the week of 18 – 25 July, the gross FX reserves rose by USD3.3bn to USD172bn and the net international reserves increased by USD1.6bn to USD64.4bn. Moreover, the net reserves excluding swaps climbed by USD2.3bn to USD46.4bn.