Tüpraş (TUPRS) 3Q25 Financial Results

Tüpraş reported TL 220.7bn net sales, TL 19.8bn EBITDA (9.0% margin) and TL 12.2bn net profit in 3Q25, above our estimates (Tacirler: 199.1/19.2/11.0). Operationally, it was a quarter where the peak-season effect was evident with c. 100% utilization, ~7.2mn tons of production and ~8.0mn tons of sales. A distillate/gasoline-heavy product mix and normalization in energy $/bbl supported profitability. Management raised its 2025 NRM guidance to 6–6.5 $/bbl (from 5–6) while keeping targets of 90–95% utilization, 26mn tons of production and 30mn tons of sales; CAPEX guidance was lowered to $480mn (from $600mn). Reflecting product cracks mark-to-market and updating our NRM/opex-bbl assumptions, we recalibrate our 2025–2027 EBITDA path and revise our 12-month target price to TL271 from TL200.30. We reiterate our Buy rating and maintain the stock in our Model Portfolio.