Tüpraş (TUPRS) 2Q26 Financial Results

Tüpraş reported TL386.4bn in net sales, TL54.3bn in EBITDA and TL45.9bn in net income in 2Q26. Consensus stood at TL374.5bn, TL39.2bn and TL30.7bn respectively, while our estimates were TL400.1bn, TL37.4bn and TL26.0bn. Net sales came in close to expectations, whereas EBITDA beat consensus by 39% and net income by 49%. The EBITDA deviation was driven by product margins coming in stronger than we had assumed, while the beat in net income reflected solid operating performance alongside the favourable impact of the corporate tax cut on deferred tax accounts. In our previous reports we noted that the rise in product margins following the conflicts in the Middle East had only partially fed through to the first quarter, with the bulk of the contribution due in the second. That effect came through in 2Q, and the company raised its full-year net refining margin guidance to USD13-15/bbl from USD6-7/bbl. We maintain our TL352 target price and BUY rating. While the results were strong, the recent rally in the shares has largely priced in this performance, and the margin outlook remains tied to the geopolitical backdrop. Our target price implies 21% upside potential, and Tüpraş remains in our model portfolio.