Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices hovering near the USD 100 mark continue to dominate the outlook. This backdrop, which is adding to global inflation risks, has pushed expectations for Fed rate cuts out to 2027, while markets are now pricing in a rate hike from the European Central Bank in the second half of this year. The shift in monetary policy expectations is weighing on...
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Good morning. The geopolitical tension that had shown signs of easing at the start of the week has escalated again over the last 24 hours following reciprocal statements and fresh headlines from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have moved back into the USD 90–100 range. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are being pushed further out, while markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike from the European Central Bank...
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Good morning. Recent statements from the US have supported the perception that attacks on Iran could come to an end, while expectations that ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz may resume and the International Energy Agency’s plan to release the largest oil reserve in history are supporting markets. That said, ongoing mine-clearing efforts in the region and mutual threats of further attacks indicate that...
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Good morning, while global risk appetite remains fragile under the shadow of geopolitical developments, a more cautious recovery attempt is coming to the fore in markets following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. U.S. President Trump’s remarks suggesting that the war with Iran could be shorter than previously expected, along with messages indicating that transit through the Strait of Hormuz continues, provided some...
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Good morning. Pressure from geopolitical risks continues to weigh on global markets. Tensions around Iran remained elevated over the weekend, while reciprocal strikes targeting refinery facilities increased concerns over energy supply. The sharp rise in oil prices is weakening global risk appetite, while the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is adding to growth concerns and, together with higher...
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Good morning. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tension, we are seeing signs of a rebound this morning across U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equities. The heavy flow of Middle East-related headlines is likely to continue and keep volatility elevated; however, the market is starting the day on a positive note. Since this positive tone is not backed by any concrete news flow or new development, we believe...
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Good morning. Geopolitical stress continues, but the fact that markets have already priced in some of the risk—and that the latest news flow has not brought any additional negative surprises—has triggered a rebound in equities. We can also say that macro data and corporate financials have supported this rebound. After four days of weakness in U.S. equities, part of the losses was recouped yesterday, and Europe...
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Good morning. Geopolitical stress remains elevated around the Iran issue, and we are not yet seeing signs of de-escalation; on the contrary, the situation still appears to be in an escalation phase. Following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reports alleging that 10 oil tankers were hit have drawn attention. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump’s comments suggesting the U.S. could provide escort services for...
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