Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Geopolitical stress continues, but the fact that markets have already priced in some of the risk—and that the latest news flow has not brought any additional negative surprises—has triggered a rebound in equities. We can also say that macro data and corporate financials have supported this rebound. After four days of weakness in U.S. equities, part of the losses was recouped yesterday, and Europe...
Read More

Good morning. Geopolitical stress remains elevated around the Iran issue, and we are not yet seeing signs of de-escalation; on the contrary, the situation still appears to be in an escalation phase. Following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reports alleging that 10 oil tankers were hit have drawn attention. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump’s comments suggesting the U.S. could provide escort services for...
Read More

Good morning. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is fuelling pessimistic expectations that oil prices could reach as high as USD 200 per barrel. Frankly, while we do not yet share such an overly bearish view, we believe oil prices could find a balance around current levels given that risks have already been priced in since the beginning of the year. That said, the key variable will be how long the process lasts...
Read More

Good morning. As the U.S. and Israel intervene in Iran—backed by political and logistical support from France, the UK and Germany—and as Iran targets U.S. bases and certain assets in the region amid other ongoing conflicts and operations, geopolitical tensions are escalating. Reciprocal statements also suggest the process could be prolonged. The rise in oil prices is increasing global inflation risks and adding...
Read More

Good morning. US–Iran negotiations are ongoing. Although statements at times suggest the talks have reached a bottleneck, the latest comments indicate that technical discussions will continue in Vienna next week. Accordingly, the risk of a military intervention over the weekend appears to have eased somewhat. Despite Nvidia’s strong results, its guidance for the period ahead has been viewed as weak, keeping selling...
Read More

Good morning. Following the positive momentum observed in global equity markets yesterday, U.S. and European futures are trading slightly negative this morning. In Asia, China and Hong Kong are under pressure, while the rest of the region is broadly in positive territory. European indices, particularly in France and the UK, renewed record highs yesterday. However, despite Nvidia’s earnings surpassing expectations...
Read More

Good morning. Global markets are starting the new day on a positive note. Expectations of progress in the US–Iran negotiations continue despite military movements and geopolitical risks. In addition, Meta’s $100 billion chip order from AMD and positive consumer trend data supported US equities, while US and European futures along with Asian markets are trading in positive territory this morning. In Borsa Istanbul,...
Read More

Good morning. Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, escalating tensions related to Iran, and concerns over major technology companies have weighed on U.S. and European equities, while futures contracts are attempting a modest rebound this morning. In Asia, the session is mixed, though the overall tone remains constructive. Elevated global volatility and rising geopolitical tension in our near region may also...
Read More