Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Tensions between the United States and Iran persist. As the two-week ceasefire period expires, oil prices climbed back toward $100 last night following Iran’s decision not to participate in negotiations in Pakistan. Subsequently, with the U.S. extending the ceasefire “indefinitely,” prices are again hovering around $93 this morning. U.S. futures are trading notably higher, European futures are...
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Good morning. Uncertainty persists regarding whether negotiations between the United States and Iran will continue. Iran is putting forward the removal of the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition, while the U.S. side is requiring an agreement before lifting the blockade. Oil prices are pricing in the possibility of a deal, with recent transactions occurring near the $90 level. Following...
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Good morning, and wishing you a productive week ahead. Toward the close on Friday, news flow suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened created a strong wave of optimism across global markets. We observed a decline in oil prices alongside equity markets reaching new highs. However, over the weekend, developments indicating that the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, coupled with Iran’s...
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Good morning. Expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be extended and potentially evolve into a lasting non-aggression agreement are supporting global risk appetite. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equity markets, are trading higher this morning, while oil prices are easing and U.S. Treasuries—traditionally viewed as safe havens—are seeing selling pressure. The S&P 500...
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Good morning. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues; however, messages from the U.S. side indicating that negotiations will proceed and that the war may be nearing an end are supporting markets. Oil prices have eased back to around USD 90, while buying interest is returning to U.S., European, and Asian equities. Futures are flat this morning, but global risk appetite is gradually strengthening. On the...
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Good morning. While the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week ceasefire is supporting global risk appetite, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic are weighing on sentiment. Brent crude oil prices, which had eased to as low as USD 88 yesterday, are moving back toward USD 95 this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian...
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Good morning. Reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire are providing a very strong boost to global markets this morning. Oil prices are down by as much as 20%, while U.S. and European futures are up between 2.0% and 5.0%, with similarly strong gains across Asian equities. We believe it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving...
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Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated; however, the fact that ceasefire conditions are being discussed more openly and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased is encouraging. On the other hand, continued threats targeting infrastructure facilities and the growing negative impact of the conflict-related costs on macro dynamics such as growth and inflation are preventing...
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