Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be extended and potentially evolve into a lasting non-aggression agreement are supporting global risk appetite. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equity markets, are trading higher this morning, while oil prices are easing and U.S. Treasuries—traditionally viewed as safe havens—are seeing selling pressure. The S&P 500...
Read More

Good morning. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues; however, messages from the U.S. side indicating that negotiations will proceed and that the war may be nearing an end are supporting markets. Oil prices have eased back to around USD 90, while buying interest is returning to U.S., European, and Asian equities. Futures are flat this morning, but global risk appetite is gradually strengthening. On the...
Read More

Good morning. While the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week ceasefire is supporting global risk appetite, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic are weighing on sentiment. Brent crude oil prices, which had eased to as low as USD 88 yesterday, are moving back toward USD 95 this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian...
Read More

Good morning. Reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire are providing a very strong boost to global markets this morning. Oil prices are down by as much as 20%, while U.S. and European futures are up between 2.0% and 5.0%, with similarly strong gains across Asian equities. We believe it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving...
Read More

Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated; however, the fact that ceasefire conditions are being discussed more openly and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased is encouraging. On the other hand, continued threats targeting infrastructure facilities and the growing negative impact of the conflict-related costs on macro dynamics such as growth and inflation are preventing...
Read More

Good morning. While mutual threats between the US and Iran continue, both sides are also putting forward conditions that do not appear very likely to be accepted by the other. The US has extended the deadline it gave Iran for a third time, granting an additional 48 hours. As geopolitical tensions remain elevated, oil prices continue to trade at high levels, while global equity markets are generally showing a weak...
Read More

Good morning. The news flow regarding the war environment appears to be relatively calmer. Reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol for the joint control of traffic and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz are drawing attention. However, the reported strike on a bridge under construction in Iran, and Iran’s response by sharing a list of bridges in other countries across the region,...
Read More

Good morning. In his national address, U.S. President Trump said that operations against Iran could come to an end within 2–3 weeks. However, his remark that attacks on infrastructure facilities could intensify has pushed oil prices back toward the USD 105–110 range and is weighing on markets this morning, following yesterday’s positive close in U.S. and European equities. Asian markets are also posting notable...
Read More