Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week ceasefire is supporting global risk appetite, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic are weighing on sentiment. Brent crude oil prices, which had eased to as low as USD 88 yesterday, are moving back toward USD 95 this morning. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian...
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Good morning. Reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire are providing a very strong boost to global markets this morning. Oil prices are down by as much as 20%, while U.S. and European futures are up between 2.0% and 5.0%, with similarly strong gains across Asian equities. We believe it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving...
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Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated; however, the fact that ceasefire conditions are being discussed more openly and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased is encouraging. On the other hand, continued threats targeting infrastructure facilities and the growing negative impact of the conflict-related costs on macro dynamics such as growth and inflation are preventing...
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Good morning. While mutual threats between the US and Iran continue, both sides are also putting forward conditions that do not appear very likely to be accepted by the other. The US has extended the deadline it gave Iran for a third time, granting an additional 48 hours. As geopolitical tensions remain elevated, oil prices continue to trade at high levels, while global equity markets are generally showing a weak...
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Good morning. The news flow regarding the war environment appears to be relatively calmer. Reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol for the joint control of traffic and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz are drawing attention. However, the reported strike on a bridge under construction in Iran, and Iran’s response by sharing a list of bridges in other countries across the region,...
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Good morning. In his national address, U.S. President Trump said that operations against Iran could come to an end within 2–3 weeks. However, his remark that attacks on infrastructure facilities could intensify has pushed oil prices back toward the USD 105–110 range and is weighing on markets this morning, following yesterday’s positive close in U.S. and European equities. Asian markets are also posting notable...
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Good morning. The perception that Middle East-focused tensions may be approaching an end is supporting global markets. Yesterday, remarks from U.S. President Trump drew attention, suggesting that the war could come to an end within 2–3 weeks even in the absence of any ceasefire or peace agreement. At the same time, we continue to follow reports that troop deployments are ongoing and that a third U.S. aircraft...
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Good morning. Recent messages from the US suggesting that some issues with Iran may have been agreed upon, along with comments that the war could be brought to an end even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, are supporting US and European futures this morning. In line with these developments, oil prices are also down by around 1–2% compared to yesterday’s average levels, although they continue to hold above USD...
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