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Good morning. As expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to strengthen, the discussion around who will lead the Fed after Chair Powell is increasingly gaining traction. The common thread among the prominent candidates is their alignment with President Trump’s calls for rate reductions. Accordingly, we expect both the timeline for rate-cut expectations to be pulled forward and the total anticipated cuts over the...
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* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real...
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Good morning. The shift in expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s 10 December meeting—from the 20–30% band to the 60–70% band—and the forward-pricing of the first “certain” rate cut being pulled forward by two months, from March 2026 to January 2026, is providing a constructive tone for global equities. U.S. and European futures are trading in positive territory this morning, while Asia exhibits a mixed pattern....
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Good morning. The dovish remarks delivered by Fed officials over the past two days have strengthened expectations for a rate cut at the December meeting, prompting a rebound in U.S. equities. While this optimism continues to rest on a fragile foundation, it may still provide short-term support to global markets. Major U.S. indices rose between 0.44% and 2.69% yesterday, whereas U.S. futures are slightly negative...
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* The CBT will release the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey @ 10:00 local time. According to the results of the October Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey, 12-month ahead inflation expectations diverged across sectors compared to the previous month. Expectations rose by 1.01pps to 23.26% among market participants and by 1.40pps to 54.39% among households, while declining by 0.50pps to 36.30% for...
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*The CBT will release the November Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) rose from 100.2 to 100.8 in October, while the seasonally adjusted index increased from 100.8 to 102. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) inched up from 74.0% to 74.2%, and the seasonally adjusted CUR rose from 73.8% to 74.0%. An...
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Good morning. While the initial optimism around Nvidia faded in less than half a day, comments from Fed officials expressing concerns about inflation and showing reluctance regarding a rate cut in December triggered sharp selling pressure across Wall Street. All major U.S. indices have clearly broken below their 50-day exponential moving averages, approaching the 100-day exponential level. Should the current...
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* During the week of 7–14 November, foreign investors were net sellers of USD158.8mn in the equity market, while recording a net purchase of USD499.8mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions). This marked the third consecutive week of inflows into the bond market, bringing the three-week cumulative total to USD1.2bn. Meanwhile, the foreign share in the total government bond stock remained unchanged at 6.8%...
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