All Newsletters

Good morning. Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected 3Q25 results are supporting a broad-based risk-on tone led by U.S. equities. However, given the further decline in Fed rate-cut expectations after yesterday’s minutes, we do not expect the Nvidia-driven momentum to be long-lasting. In addition, U.S. authorities announced that October employment data will not be released due to incomplete data collection during the...
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* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a...
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Good morning. Profit-taking activity and pullbacks from record highs continue across global equity markets. This trend is largely driven by expectations for Fed rate cuts being pushed further out, along with a reduction in the total number of cuts anticipated for the upcoming period. In addition, concerns around elevated valuations—particularly among AI-focused technology names in the U.S.—are contributing to the...
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* The short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD165.8bn, down by 1.9% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD224.8bn as of September 2025. Of this total, USD26.9bn is attributed to loans taken...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite remains under pressure as expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed out to March 2026 and selling has intensified in major technology stocks. Following yesterday’s declines of up to 1% in U.S. and European equity markets, futures and Asian indices are also broadly weaker this morning. In Borsa Istanbul, however, modest inflows and rising trading volumes supported a 1.3%...
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* The Treasury will hold a direct sale of a two-year TLREFK-indexed lease certificate today. After today’s sales, the Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate on November 20, finalizing its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026,...
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Good morning. Global risk sentiment is starting the new week on a mixed footing. U.S. futures are trading in positive territory this morning, European futures are weaker, and Asian markets exhibit a generally soft tone with selective buying interest. Although the Borsa Istanbul dipped below the 100-day exponential moving average on Friday, the late-session rebound was notable. By the close, the BIST 100 Index had...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release October central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL195.9bn in October, while the primary balance registered a deficit of TL36bn. Over the first ten months of the year, the cumulative cash deficit reached TL1.8tn, with the primary deficit amounting to TL137.2bn. The October cash balance figures serve as a...
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