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Good morning. Iran’s launch of military drills in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is raising geopolitical tensions once again. Given that approximately 20%–30% of global crude oil and LNG shipments transit through this المنطقة, supply concerns are resurfacing. Today, the second round of U.S.–Iran negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, as well as ongoing talks regarding the Russia–Ukraine war, are expected...
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* The Treasury will hold a 1.5-year gold-denominated bond and a gold-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for the month. The Treasury borrowed TL80bn via yesterday’s 2y fixed coupon and 5y CPI-linked bond auctions, including non-competitive sales amounting to TL44.4bn. For the fixed coupon auction, the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.68x, indicating robust demand, and the average...
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Good morning. As we start the new week, global risk appetite appears balanced, with U.S. equity markets and some Asian exchanges closed today. However, open markets and futures are generally displaying a flat performance. On the domestic front, Borsa İstanbul closed the previous session at the same level where it began on Friday. The BIST 100 climbed to as high as 14,320 intraday but ultimately settled at 14,180,...
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*The CBT will release December Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account balance to post a deficit of USD5.15bn in December. We project the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to widen to USD6.6bn, while the services surplus is likely to moderate to USD3.1bn amid weaker net travel revenues. Accordingly, we now expect the current account deficit to close 2025 at...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new day on a positive note. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls released yesterday came in at nearly twice market expectations, pushing back expectations for the first Fed rate cut from June to July, or even September; however, expectations that liquidity conditions will remain ample continue to support equity markets. U.S. and European futures are trading higher, while...
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Koç Holding reported consolidated net income of TL7.0bn in 4Q25 (Consensus: TL4.4bn). The results point to a marked year-on-year improvement (4Q24: TL8.0bn net loss), supported by better financing costs at associates and the rebound in the monetary position item under inflation accounting. The monetary position item improved from -TL1.1bn in 4Q24 to +TL4.6bn in 4Q25. For FY25, consolidated net income came in at...
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We assess the 4Q25 financial results as neutral, with Ford Otosan reporting a net profit of TL 10,649mn, exceeding both market consensus and our house estimate (Market: TL 9.1bn, Tacirler: TL 9.3bn). Net sales increased by 3% YoY and 13% QoQ to TL 223.1bn, while EBITDA reached TL 13.8bn and adjusted EBITDA stood at TL 17.6bn. Excluding one-off items, operational profitability was broadly in line with our...
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*The CBT will unveil the 1st Quarterly Inflation Report of the year @10:30 local time. Today’s report will shed light on the Bank's future monetary policy, inflation and output expectations. The CBT Governor Karahan’s assessments on monetary policy and inflation outlook as well as the Q&A session will be closely scrutinized today. In its latest Inflation Report presentation on November 7, the CBT...
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