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Good morning. While protests and security interventions in Iran have led to a dramatic rise in casualties, statements from the US, the EU, and other parties that risk further escalation continue to come to the fore. Alongside these developments, oil prices have increased by 9% over the past week, returning to their highest levels of the last three months and gradually amplifying inflationary risks. Beyond the...
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* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
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Good morning. We are starting the day with U.S. President Trump’s statement announcing a “25% additional tariff on countries doing business with Iran.” This development should be interpreted less in terms of its direct economic impact and more as a signal of increased pressure on Iran and the continuation of geopolitical stress. Global markets are relatively calm this morning: U.S. futures are slightly negative,...
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*The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 10y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. In yesterday’s auctions, covering a 2y fixed-coupon bond and a 5y CPI-linked bond, the Treasury raised TL78.3bn, including non-competitive sales. Demand at the 2y fixed-coupon auction was robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield settled at 36.87%. Despite a relatively...
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Good morning. Global markets are starting the new week following reports of a criminal subpoena issued by the U.S. Department of Justice to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The subpoena, arriving at a time when concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and broader questions regarding the functioning of institutional structures and the constitutional system are intensifying, together with Powell’s subsequent...
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Good morning. Global risk appetite is hovering in mildly positive territory this morning. Despite supportive developments such as the USD 200 billion support package announced for the U.S. housing sector, upward revisions to growth forecasts, and rate-cut signaling from Fed officials, U.S. equity futures are trading flat. European futures and Asian equity markets, on the other hand, are generally in positive...
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Good morning. In the U.S., plans to impose restrictions on dividend payments and share buyback activities of companies operating in commercial real estate investments and the defense sector have led to selling pressure in related stocks, while warnings of a potential broader correction on Wall Street are also weighing on risk appetite. This morning, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equities, are trading...
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Good morning. The weight of the geopolitical agenda, which intensified following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, continues to dominate global markets. Most recently, U.S. President Trump turned his attention once again to Greenland, a territory belonging to another NATO member, Denmark, stating that all options, including military ones, remain on the table. Europe’s discomfort over this issue persists, and...
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