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Good morning. Global markets are focused on the strained U.S.–Europe relations driven by the Greenland issue. This agenda appears to have dominated the Davos Summit, which started yesterday, pushing other geopolitical topics and global economic challenges into the background. U.S. equity markets were closed yesterday; however, futures contracts are currently trading around 1% lower compared to Friday’s close....
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*TURKSTAT will release December house sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Housing sales declined by 14.1% m/m and 7.8% y/y in November, falling to 141,100 units, indicating that the recovery observed in recent months lost momentum as of November. While cumulative housing sales over the Jan – Nov period increased by 13.3% y/y to 1,434,133 units, the latest data point to a weakening trend on the demand side toward the...
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Good morning. The United States’ insistence on Greenland and the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Europe remain in focus. Following military exercise decisions by several European countries in the region, the U.S. announcement of imposing a 10% customs duty on eight European countries starting February—rising to 25% in the second half of the year—along with the European Parliament’s decision to suspend...
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* The CBT will release the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for December @ 10:00 local time. The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 2.7% m/m and 31.4% y/y in November, reaching 204.2, while real house prices recorded a 0.3% annual increase. As a result, the annual real change in RPPI turned positive for the first time since January 2024. This indicates that, despite the weakening observed...
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Good morning. In the US, better-than-expected 4Q25 financial results from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs triggered buying interest on Wall Street, which is also extending into this morning’s futures index contracts. In contrast, European futures are trading lower this morning, as tensions between the US and the EU persist due to the Greenland issue, despite some easing in Iran-related geopolitical stress....
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* The CBT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s latest Market Participants Survey for December 2025, participants revised their 2025 year-end CPI expectation down to 31.2% from 32.2%, while the 2026 year-end CPI forecast edged slightly higher to 23.4% from 23.2%. In addition, the 24-month-ahead CPI expectation declined to...
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Good morning. Following the partial easing of Iran-related tensions and messages from the U.S., we observe that geopolitical risk perception has moderated to some extent, leading to a 4% pullback in oil prices from the recent peaks. On the equity side, market conditions remain broadly range-bound. Aside from the sell-off in U.S. technology stocks yesterday, the overall tone in U.S. markets was relatively calm. This...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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