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Good morning. In the US, better-than-expected 4Q25 financial results from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs triggered buying interest on Wall Street, which is also extending into this morning’s futures index contracts. In contrast, European futures are trading lower this morning, as tensions between the US and the EU persist due to the Greenland issue, despite some easing in Iran-related geopolitical stress....
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* The CBT will release the results of the January Market Participants’ Expectations Survey today @ 10:00 local time. According to the CBT’s latest Market Participants Survey for December 2025, participants revised their 2025 year-end CPI expectation down to 31.2% from 32.2%, while the 2026 year-end CPI forecast edged slightly higher to 23.4% from 23.2%. In addition, the 24-month-ahead CPI expectation declined to...
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Good morning. Following the partial easing of Iran-related tensions and messages from the U.S., we observe that geopolitical risk perception has moderated to some extent, leading to a 4% pullback in oil prices from the recent peaks. On the equity side, market conditions remain broadly range-bound. Aside from the sell-off in U.S. technology stocks yesterday, the overall tone in U.S. markets was relatively calm. This...
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* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December central government budget figures @ 11:00 local time. The Treasury’s cash balance posted a deficit of TL333.1bn in December, while the primary balance recorded a deficit of TL216.9bn. As a result, the cumulative Treasury cash deficit for full-year 2025 reached TL2.1tn. Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government...
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Good morning. While protests and security interventions in Iran have led to a dramatic rise in casualties, statements from the US, the EU, and other parties that risk further escalation continue to come to the fore. Alongside these developments, oil prices have increased by 9% over the past week, returning to their highest levels of the last three months and gradually amplifying inflationary risks. Beyond the...
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* The current account balance posted a USD4.0bn deficit in November, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit widened from USD22.0bn to USD23.2bn. Over the Jan-Nov period, the cumulative current account deficit stood at USD18.5bn. The current account balance excluding gold and energy (core balance) recorded a USD2.1bn surplus in November; however, the annualized surplus in the core balance narrowed from...
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Good morning. We are starting the day with U.S. President Trump’s statement announcing a “25% additional tariff on countries doing business with Iran.” This development should be interpreted less in terms of its direct economic impact and more as a signal of increased pressure on Iran and the continuation of geopolitical stress. Global markets are relatively calm this morning: U.S. futures are slightly negative,...
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*The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will hold 4y TLREF-indexed and 10y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. In yesterday’s auctions, covering a 2y fixed-coupon bond and a 5y CPI-linked bond, the Treasury raised TL78.3bn, including non-competitive sales. Demand at the 2y fixed-coupon auction was robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x, while the average compounded yield settled at 36.87%. Despite a relatively...
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