All Newsletters

Good morning. With one week remaining until the September 17th Fed meeting, yesterday’s U.S. PPI data came in significantly below expectations, once again reinforcing rate-cut pricing. In fact, recently there has been an increase in market participants expecting a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed instead of 25 basis points. Oracle’s announcement yesterday of rising demand for its artificial-intelligence applications...
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* We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver a 200bps rate cut at today’s rate-setting meeting, in line with the market consensus. We believe that stronger-than-expected growth figures, which failed to validate the CBT’s output gap trajectory, coupled with the recent rise in domestic political risks, suggest that the likelihood of a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the CBT has increased....
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Good morning. Global risk appetite remains strong, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts as well as company-specific news flow. This morning, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equities, are generally trading higher. Yesterday, Borsa Istanbul ended the day with a limited gain of 0.35%, while sensitivity to political developments continues. In the short-term outlook for the BIST 100 index, 10,400 is...
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* TURKSTAT will release July Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential (the seasonally and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) increased by 0.7% m/m in June, while the calendar adjusted IP surged by 8.3% y/y. The robust annual rise primarily reflects a low base effect; therefore, we do not expect the surge in annual data to be permanent. Examining the...
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Following the strong 2Q25 financial results, we are updating our forecasts for TABGD in line with our expectations and raising our 12-month target price per share from TRY 241.00 (TRY 236.20 after dividend distribution) to TRY 290.00, while maintaining our BUY recommendation. Our new target price implies a 37% upside potential. The main catalysts of our valuation are: i) Market share gains and customer-focused...
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Good morning. Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to support global equity markets. The impact has been so strong recently that, despite the Bayrou Government in France losing a confidence vote for the first time in 67 years at the ruling party’s own request, the EUR/USD pair moved toward 1.1770 while gold prices advanced above USD 3,650 per ounce. Meanwhile, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields continues....
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*The Treasury will hold 2y and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury borrowed TL67bn (including non-competitive sales) from the domestic markets via yesterday’s 9m zero-coupon bond auction. The Treasury also conducted a direct sale of 2-year TLREFK (Turkish Lira Overnight Participation Reference Rate) indexed lease certificates yesterday, marking the first-ever issuance of such an instrument. The...
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Good morning. We are starting the week with two major developments in Turkey. The first is the temporary administration decision taken last week regarding CHP’s Istanbul provincial organization and the ongoing political tensions. The second is the Medium-Term Program (MTP) covering the years 2026–2028, which was published in the Official Gazette, along with the details it contains. We believe that political...
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