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Good morning. Global markets remain focused on the U.S.–Iran tensions. At the beginning of last week, news suggesting that the conflict environment could come to an end supported a short-lived rebound, but we later saw continued reports of attacks throughout the week. The key issue that global markets are currently focusing on is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether there will be any disruption in oil...
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* The Treasury will hold 5y and 8y fixed-coupon bond auctions today. After today’s double auctions, the Treasury will hold a 2y fixed coupon bond and a 4yr TLREF-indexed bond, alongside direct sales of a 2y gold-denominated bond and a gold-denominated lease certificate tomorrow and finalize its domestic borrowing program for March. According to the March – May 2026 domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury plans to...
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Good morning. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices hovering near the USD 100 mark continue to dominate the outlook. This backdrop, which is adding to global inflation risks, has pushed expectations for Fed rate cuts out to 2027, while markets are now pricing in a rate hike from the European Central Bank in the second half of this year. The shift in monetary policy expectations is weighing on...
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* The CBT will release the results of the Survey of Market Participants for March @ 10:00 local time. According to the latest results of the February survey, respondents revised their year-end 2026 CPI forecast upward to 24.1% from 23.2%, while the year-end 2027 inflation expectation increased to 18.4% from 17.8%. Expectations for CPI inflation 24 months ahead edged up to 17.1% from 16.9%, and the five-year-ahead...
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Alarko Holding reported a net loss of TL875mn in 4Q25 (vs. a net profit of TL2.6bn in 4Q24). Weak operational results, a year-on-year decline in investment income, and a one-off tax expense weighed on bottom-line performance. Consolidated revenues increased by 150% year-on-year to TL1.4bn in the same period (4Q24: TL559mn). For the full year 2025, consolidated revenues came in at TL8.7bn, while the company reported...
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DESA reported TL907mn in revenue, TL277mn in EBITDA, and TL190mn in net income in 4Q25. Although revenues declined on a yearly basis, the notable improvement in gross margin, resilient operational profitability, and a more balanced financial expense profile supported bottom-line performance. The resilience in profitability and strong cash generation maintained throughout 2025 continue to support our investment...
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Good morning. The geopolitical tension that had shown signs of easing at the start of the week has escalated again over the last 24 hours following reciprocal statements and fresh headlines from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have moved back into the USD 90–100 range. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are being pushed further out, while markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike from the European Central Bank...
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*The CBT will release January Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time. We expect the current account to post a USD6.5bn deficit in January. We forecast the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to narrow modestly to USD7.3bn, while the services balance surplus is likely to come in at around USD2.7bn. In light of the surge in energy prices following the US – Iran tensions, we revise our...
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