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Macro and Politics

Tacirler Investment

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows and money & banking statistics for the October 23 – 30 period today at 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that gross reserves decreased by USD4.1bn to USD158.1bn, while net reserves slid by USD4.7bn to USD38.1bn during the week. We expect today’s official data to confirm a change in reserves broadly in line with our analytical balance sheet-based calculations. Foreign investors were net sellers of USD100mn in equities and USD183.8mn in bonds (excluding repo transactions) during the October 16–23 week. Equity outflows extended into a fourth consecutive week, bringing cumulative net foreign sales over the period to USD627mn. Bond outflows continued for a second week, while foreigners’ share in the total bond stock remained unchanged at 6.5%. Besides, residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect) increased by approximately USD1bn during the October 16–23 week, while their total FX deposits (including gold, adjusted for the price effect) increased by USD223mn. In terms of official reserves: The CBT’s gross reserves declined by USD6.9bn to USD162.2bn during the October 16–23 week, while net reserves fell by USD8.6bn to USD42.8bn. The swap stock edged down by USD30mn to USD12.1bn, while net reserves excluding swaps contracted by USD8.6bn to USD30.7bn.

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