Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* TURKSTAT will release October Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index rose by 0.7% from 100.6 to 101.3 in September, reaching its highest level since 2023 and remaining above the 100 threshold for a second consecutive month. Among the sub-indices, the Consumer Confidence Index increased by 1.3% to 91.9, while the Retail Trade Confidence Index rose by 1.1% to 111.3. The Real Sector Confidence Index edged up by 0.1% to 102.5, while the Services Confidence Index remained unchanged at 111.9. The Construction Confidence Index, meanwhile, declined by 0.2% to 82.9. The rise in the Economic Confidence Index to its highest level since 2023 supports our expectation of a gradual recovery in economic activity in the second half of the year. Yet, the divergence across sub-indices and the marginal improvement in real sector confidence suggest that the recovery has yet to become strong and broad-based. We therefore maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.2%, while assessing the risks as modestly skewed to the downside.