Macro and Politics

*The CBT will release the October Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate at 10:00 local time today. The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) declined by 0.8 points to 102 in September, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI edged up by 0.1 points to 102.5. Among the sub-components, assessments of the general course of business, current overall order books, total employment for the next three months and overall orders over the past three months contributed positively to the index. In contrast, export orders for the next three months, the current stock of finished products, fixed investment expenditures and production for the next three months weighed on the headline reading. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) increased from 73.5% to 74.2%, while the seasonally adjusted CUR rose from 73.5% to 74.1%. September data point to a recovery in capacity utilization, but little momentum in real sector confidence, alongside some deterioration in forward-looking expectations for production and export orders. Overall, manufacturing indicators continue to suggest a subdued underlying growth picture, reinforcing our cautious medium-term outlook. We therefore maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.2%.