Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the August 14–21 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations using the CBT's analytical balance sheet, we estimate that the CBT's gross FX reserves rose by USD5.1bn to USD183.5bn, while net FX reserves increased by USD3.5bn to USD66.4bn, in the week of August 14 – 21. We expect today’s official reserve data to confirm a reserve change broadly consistent with our analytical balance sheet-based estimates. To recall the previous week’s data: Foreign investors recorded a net purchase of USD176.1mn in the equity market in the August 7–14 week, while posting a net sale of USD306.2mn in the bond market, excluding repo transactions. Over the same period, residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect) declined by a modest USD90mn, while their total FX deposits (including gold and adjusted for the price effect) fell by USD297mn. Moreover, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD5.1bn to USD183.5bn in the August 7–14 week, while net FX reserves rose by USD4.1bn to USD67.0bn. The swap stock increased by USD438mn to USD12.9bn over the same period, while net reserves excluding swaps rose by USD3.7bn to USD54.2bn.