Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the August 7 – 14 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations using the CBT's analytical balance sheet, we estimate that the CBT's gross FX reserves rose by USD5.1bn to USD183.5bn, while net FX reserves increased by USD3.5bn to USD66.4bn, in the week of July 31 – August 7. We expect today’s official reserve data to confirm a reserve build broadly consistent with our analytical balance sheet-based estimates. To recall the previous week’s data: Foreign investors recorded a mere USD1.5mn net purchase of equities in the July 31–August 7 week, while the bond market attracted a sizeable USD545.8mn net foreign inflow (excluding repo transactions). Over the same period, residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect) increased by USD1.2bn, while their total FX deposits (including gold and adjusted for the price effect) increased by USD1.8bn. In terms of official reserves, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD3.9bn to USD178.4bn in the July 31–August 7 week, while net FX reserves rose by USD8.8bn to USD62.9bn. The swap stock declined by USD928mn to USD12.4bn over the same period, while net reserves excluding swaps increased by USD9.7bn to USD50.4bn.