Macro and Politics

* TURKSTAT will release June industrial production (IP) figures today at 10:00 local time. The sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP)  contracted by 2.9% m/m in May, while calendar-adjusted annual IP was unchanged at 0%. The trend in intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy points to a rebound in industrial production in June. In addition, the fading impact of the bridge-day effect associated with the Eid holiday and more supportive base effects are likely to have helped industrial production return to positive annual growth in June.

* The Treasury will hold 2y fixed coupon bond auction as well as the direct sale of 2y TLREFK-indexed lease certificate today. According to the Treasury's 3-month domestic borrowing strategy for the August–October 2026 period, the Treasury plans to borrow a total of TL536.7bn from the domestic market in August against redemptions of TL596.3bn, implying a projected rollover ratio of 90%. The August borrowing program will start today with a bond auction and a direct sale. Tomorrow, the Treasury will hold auctions for a 6m G-bond and a 5y fixed coupon bond. Following this week's operations, the Treasury will continue its August borrowing program with auctions of a 3y FRN and a 6y TLREF-indexed bond on August 17, a 4y CPI-linked bond and a 9y fixed coupon bond on August 18, and direct sales of a 1y USD-denominated bond and a 1y USD-denominated lease certificate on August 20, thereby completing its domestic borrowing program for the month.