Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the June 29 – July 3 period at 14:30 local time today. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the June 29 – July 3 period, gross FX reserves increased by USD10.7bn to USD159.9bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10bn to USD55.3bn. We expect today’s official reserve data to confirm a reserve increase broadly in line with our estimates. To briefly recall the previous week’s data: During the June 19 – 26 period, foreign investors recorded net purchases of USD203.3mn in the equity market and USD339.7mn in the bond market excluding repo transactions. Over the same period, foreigners’ share in the total bond stock increased from 5.9% to 6.1%, marking the highest level since the week of March 27. During the mentioned period, residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect) declined by USD471mn, while total FX deposits (including gold and adjusted for the price effect) decreased by USD1.1bn. According to the CBT’s official reserve data, gross FX reserves fell by USD8bn to USD149.2bn during the June 19 – 26 period, while net FX reserves declined by USD6.6bn to USD45.3bn. Over the same period, the swap stock decreased by USD2.7bn to USD16.7bn, while net reserves excluding swaps fell by USD3.9bn to USD30.7bn.