Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of April 24 – 30 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations derived from the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that in the week of April 24 – 30, gross FX reserves fell by USD5.6bn to USD165.6bn, while net FX reserves declined by a mere USD600mn to USD53.5bn. We expect today’s official data to point to a decline broadly in line with our estimates. To recall the previous week’s data: Foreign investors recorded net inflows of USD328.1mn into the equity market and USD193.6mn into the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of April 17 – 24. Moreover, during the same period, residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold, EUR/USD parity effect adjusted) increased by a modest USD169mn, with the entire rise driven by corporate demand, while their total FX deposits (including gold, price-adjusted) posted a net decrease of USD557mn. In terms of the CBT’s official reserves, the gross FX reserves declined by USD3.4bn to USD171.2bn, net FX reserves fell by USD4.1bn to USD54.1bn and net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD3.3bn to USD36.3bn in the week of April 17 – 24.