Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* TURKSTAT will release February Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Recall that sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) IP contracted by 2.8% m/m in January, reverting to a contractionary phase following two consecutive months of expansion, while calendar-adjusted annual production declined by 1.8% y/y, pointing to a continued weakness in the underlying trend. Leading indicators suggest that industrial activity, which started the year on a soft footing, is likely to rebound in February. External trade data remain particularly informative for our outlook, pointing to a strengthening in production dynamics. Imports of intermediate goods excluding gold and energy rose to USD14.6bn in February, increasing by 6.7% m/m and 16.4% y/y. This improving momentum is also corroborated by survey-based indicators, with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry rising from 48.1 to 49.3, marking its highest level since April 2024. Taken together, these indicators point to a recovery in industrial production as of February, following the pronounced contraction recorded in January.
* Foreign investors recorded net outflows of USD217.8mn from the equity market and USD784.3mn from the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of March 27 – April 3. This marked the seventh consecutive week of foreign outflows from the bond market, with the cumulative exit over this period (ex-repo) reaching USD8.1bn. Over the same week, foreigners’ share in the total government bond stock declined from 6.1% to 5.8%, which stands for the lowest level since June 2025. On a rolling one-year basis, cumulative flows point to a net foreign inflow of USD3.9bn into equities and USD1.9bn into bonds (excluding repo transactions). Year-to-date, foreigners have been net buyers of USD1.1bn in equities, while recording a cumulative outflow of USD2.3bn from the bond market on an ex-repo basis. Besides, in the week of March 27 – April 3, the residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold, EUR/USD parity effect adjusted) posted a strong increase of USD2.5bn. A closer look at the breakdown suggests that household FX deposits declined by USD190mn, whereas corporate FX deposits increased by USD2.7bn. Moreover, the resident’s total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) recorded a net increase of USD2.8bn during the week. Lastly, during the same period, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD6.3bn to USD161.8bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10.6bn to USD45.6bn over the same period. The increase in reserves was entirely driven by local swap transactions. Accordingly, the swap stock surged by USD12.4bn to USD27.3bn, while net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD1.8bn to USD18.3bn.
* TURKSTAT will release February Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Recall that sequential (seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly figure) IP contracted by 2.8% m/m in January, reverting to a contractionary phase following two consecutive months of expansion, while calendar-adjusted annual production declined by 1.8% y/y, pointing to a continued weakness in the underlying trend. Leading indicators suggest that industrial activity, which started the year on a soft footing, is likely to rebound in February. External trade data remain particularly informative for our outlook, pointing to a strengthening in production dynamics. Imports of intermediate goods excluding gold and energy rose to USD14.6bn in February, increasing by 6.7% m/m and 16.4% y/y. This improving momentum is also corroborated by survey-based indicators, with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry rising from 48.1 to 49.3, marking its highest level since April 2024. Taken together, these indicators point to a recovery in industrial production as of February, following the pronounced contraction recorded in January.
* Foreign investors recorded net outflows of USD217.8mn from the equity market and USD784.3mn from the bond market (excluding repo transactions) in the week of March 27 – April 3. This marked the seventh consecutive week of foreign outflows from the bond market, with the cumulative exit over this period (ex-repo) reaching USD8.1bn. Over the same week, foreigners’ share in the total government bond stock declined from 6.1% to 5.8%, which stands for the lowest level since June 2025. On a rolling one-year basis, cumulative flows point to a net foreign inflow of USD3.9bn into equities and USD1.9bn into bonds (excluding repo transactions). Year-to-date, foreigners have been net buyers of USD1.1bn in equities, while recording a cumulative outflow of USD2.3bn from the bond market on an ex-repo basis. Besides, in the week of March 27 – April 3, the residents’ FX deposits (excluding gold, EUR/USD parity effect adjusted) posted a strong increase of USD2.5bn. A closer look at the breakdown suggests that household FX deposits declined by USD190mn, whereas corporate FX deposits increased by USD2.7bn. Moreover, the resident’s total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) recorded a net increase of USD2.8bn during the week. Lastly, during the same period, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD6.3bn to USD161.8bn, while net FX reserves rose by USD10.6bn to USD45.6bn over the same period. The increase in reserves was entirely driven by local swap transactions. Accordingly, the swap stock surged by USD12.4bn to USD27.3bn, while net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD1.8bn to USD18.3bn.