Macro and Politics

* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL99.8 via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed bond auction, including TL33.7bn in non-competitive sales. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at a relatively weak 1.62x, pointing to subdued demand, while the auction cleared at a term rate of 19.39%. This brought the Treasury’s total domestic borrowing for the month to TL133.6bn. According to the domestic borrowing strategy for the 3-month period covering April – June 2026, the Treasury plans to conduct TL480.1bn in domestic borrowing against TL505.4bn in redemptions in April, implying a rollover ratio of 95%. Following the completion of this week’s auctions, the issuance calendar for the remainder of the month includes a direct sale of a 2-year lease certificate on April 13; direct sales of a 1-year USD-denominated bond, a 2-year gold-denominated bond, and a gold-denominated lease certificate on April 14; and auctions of 2-year and 5-year fixed-coupon bonds on April 21. The Treasury is expected to raise approximately TL345bn through direct sales and auctions over the rest of the month, in line with its borrowing strategy.