Macro and Politics

* TURKSTAT will release March Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index rose to 100.7 in February from 99.4 in the previous month, surpassing the 100 threshold for the first time since March 2025. Please note that a reading above 100 signals that sentiment regarding the overall economic outlook has shifted back into optimistic territory. A breakdown of the sub-components shows a broad-based improvement across most sectors. The consumer confidence index increased by 2.3% to 85.7, while the real sector confidence index rose by 1.1% to 104.1. Confidence in the retail trade sector strengthened by 2.9% to 115.9. The services sector confidence index remained broadly unchanged at 113.8. In contrast, the construction sector confidence index declined by 2.1% to 83.9. Although the rebound in confidence indicators in February points to a nascent recovery in economic activity from cyclical lows, uncertainty stemming from the US – Iran tensions continues to pose risks to the durability of this improvement. In this context, we expect the index level could slip back below the 100 threshold in the near term.