Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* The Treasury cash balance posted a deficit of TL92.4bn in February, while the primary balance registered a surplus of TL90.9bn. This brought the cumulative cash deficit in the first two months of the year to TL338.7bn. February Treasury cash balance figures serve as a leading indicator for the central government budget data due to be released on Monday, March 16. While our 2026 budget deficit forecast currently stands at TL2.8tn, corresponding to 3.4% of GDP, we believe the balance of risks around this projection is tilted to the upside. In particular, we expect the recently introduced 75% échelle mobile mechanism in fuel pricing to pose downside risks to SCT collections, and hence to cash revenues, in the coming months.