Macro and Politics

* TURKSTAT will release December Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. Foreign trade data are indicative for our IP forecasts. In December, intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy increased by 14% m/m and 14.8% y/y, signaling a strengthening in underlying manufacturing demand. Another key leading indicator for industrial activity, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing PMI, rose from 48.0 to 48.9 in December, reaching its highest level over the past year. In line with these indicative signals, we expect industrial production to have sustained its recovery momentum in the final month of the year.

* The Treasury will hold an 11-month G-bond auction and a 5-year lease certificate direct sale today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL105.9bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-indexed and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions. Accordingly, the Treasury’s domestic borrowing total for the month has reached TL183.9bn. According to the Treasury’s domestic borrowing strategy for the February–April 2026 period, the Treasury projects domestic borrowing of TL525.3bn against redemptions totaling TL656.6bn in February. The program also points to a similar stance in March and April, with planned borrowing remaining below redemption amounts. Following today’s bond auction and direct sale, the Treasury will hold 2-year fixed-coupon and CPI-indexed bond auctions on 16 February, and direct sales of a 1.5-year gold-denominated bond and a gold-denominated lease certificate on 17 February.