Macro and Politics

* The CBT released the November Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Accordingly, 12-month ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.23pp to 23.49% among market participants, while declining by 0.60 points to 35.70% for the real sector and by 2.15 points to 52.24% among households. Hence, market participants’ expectations continued to rise for a second consecutive month, whereas the downward adjustment in real sector expectations extended into its seventh month. Given the real sector’s price-setting role, this steady - albeit moderate - softening in expectations provides a supportive backdrop for the disinflation process. Given the adaptive nature of the expectations, an imminent CPI print for November that falls below the market consensus could prompt downward revisions in expectations across all three groups. November inflation will be released on Wednesday, December 3^rd at 10:00 local time. We expect a monthly CPI increase of 1.2% for November, lower than the market expectations hovering around %1.5. A realization in line with our house forecast would pull annual inflation down from 32.9% to 31.5%. For December, we anticipate a monthly print below 1%. For year-end 2025, we maintain our CPI forecast at 31.5%, with a modest downward risk. Our year-end 2026 inflation projection stands at 23%.