Macro and Politics

* During the week of 7–14 November, foreign investors were net sellers of USD158.8mn in the equity market, while recording a net purchase of USD499.8mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions). This marked the third consecutive week of inflows into the bond market, bringing the three-week cumulative total to USD1.2bn. Meanwhile, the foreign share in the total government bond stock remained unchanged at 6.8% during the same period. Within the same period, the residents’ FX deposits edged up by a mere USD46mn (excluding gold, EUR/USD parity effect adjusted), while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) climbed by USD742mn. In terms of official reserves, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD2.4bn to USD187.5bn, net international reserves dropped by USD1.1bn to USD72bn and net reserves excluding swaps decreased by USD517mn to USD57.6bn.

* The Treasury sold TL21.9bn at the direct sale of 2y USD-denominated bond and TL7.6bn at the direct sale of 2y USD-denominated lease certificate yesterday. Accordingly, the Treasury has completed its domestic borrowing program for November, raising TL99.4bn in total - below the initial projection of TL128.3bn. The Treasury’s next 3-month domestic borrowing strategy (December 2025 – February 2026) will be announced on next Friday, November 28, at 17:30 local time. In the previous borrowing strategy, the Treasury had projected total domestic borrowing of TL136.1bn against its redemption amounting to TL108.3bn for December.

* The consumer confidence index edged up from 83.6 to 85 level in November. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism when it exceeds that threshold. A breakdown of the November consumer confidence index reveals the following: The sub-index reflecting the financial situation of household at present increased from 67.7 to 69.6 level, the sub-index measuring financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months rose from 84.2 to 85.7,  general economic situation expectation over the next 12 months climbed from 76.8 to 79.6 and  the sub-index tracking assessment on spending money on durable goods over the next 12 months — a key indicator of domestic demand — increased from 104 level to 105 in November. The Consumer Confidence Index, which has remained broadly flat within the 84 – 85 range since April and continues to stand below the 100 – threshold, indicates that the prevailing pessimism in consumer sentiment persists.