Macro and Politics

* The Treasury will hold the direct sales of a 2y USD-denominated bond and a 2y USD-denominated lease certificate today and finalize its domestic borrowing program for November. According to the Treasury’s three-month domestic borrowing program covering the period of November 2025 – January 2026, it plans to borrow a total of TL128.3bn from domestic markets against its redemption of TL95bn this month, implying a rollover ratio of 135%. Having already raised a total of TL99.4bn from the domestic markets so far since the beginning of the month, the Treasury is likely to borrow around TL30bn via today’s direct sales.

*TURKSTAT will release November Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index dropped barely from 83.9 to 83.6 level in October. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism when it exceeds that threshold. A breakdown of the October consumer confidence index reveals the following: The sub-index reflecting the financial situation of household at present decreased merely from 67.8 level to 67.7, while the sub-index measuring financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months increased marginally from 84 to 84.2. Moreover, general economic situation expectation over the next 12 months rose from 78 to 78.6, while the sub-index tracking assessment on spending money on durable goods over the next 12 months — a key indicator of domestic demand — dropped from 105.7 to 104 level in October. The Consumer Confidence Index, which has remained broadly flat within the 84–85 range since April and continues to stand below the 100 – threshold, indicates that the prevailing pessimism in consumer sentiment persists.

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of November 7 – 14 @ 14:30 local time. In the week of October 31 – November 7, foreign investors were net buyers of USD35.7mn in the equity market and USD311.5mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions), while the foreign share in the total government bond stock rose from 6.7% to 6.8%. Having recorded a total outflow of USD247.5mn from the equity market in October, foreign investors appear to have entered November with only a modest pace of inflows. On the bond side, meanwhile, after October’s cumulative foreign purchases remained limited at USD33mn, the new month has started with apparently stronger inflows. During the same period, the residents’ FX deposits slumped by USD1.3bn (excluding gold accounts and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect), while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) retreated by USD625mn during the week of October 31 – November 7. In terms of official reserves, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD1.5bn to USD185.1bn, net international reserves climbed by USD3.9bn to USD73.1bn and net reserves excluding swaps soared by USD5.7bn to USD58.2bn.