Macro and Politics

* The CBT will release Juy short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. The short-term external debt stock in June materialized at USD168.2bn, down by 0.4% m/m.  In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD220.3bn as of June 2025. Of this total, USD25bn is attributed to loans taken by resident banks and private sector affiliates from their branches and affiliates abroad. Stripping this amount from the total results in USD195.3bn. We also add 12-month forward-looking CAD expectations on this amount so as to reach Turkey’s annual external financing need (EFN).  Accordingly, we calculate EFN as of June 2025 around USD220bn.

* The CBT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and international reserves for the period of September 5 – 12 @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations using the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of September 5 – 12, net international reserves dropped by USD1.9bn to USD69.2bn, while gross FX reserves decreased by USD2.3bn to a new record USD178bn. We anticipate that today’s official reserve data will likely reflect a similar rise in line with our estimates. To recall the previous week’s data: The foreign investors were the net sellers of USD523.2mn in the equity market and USD785.1mn in the bond market (excluding repo transactions). Accordingly, the three-weeks foreign inflow into the bond market came to a halt, with the foreigners’ share in total bond stock slid from 6.7% to 6.4%. During the same period, residents’ FX deposits surged by USD2.5bn (excluding gold accounts and adjusted for the EUR/USD parity effect), while total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) soared by USD2.8bn during the week of 29 August – 5 September. Moreover, the CBT’s gross FX reserves increased by USD1.8bn to USD180.3bn, while net international reserves dropped by USD2.4bn to USD71.1bn. Lastly, net reserves excluding swaps eased by USD2.5bn to USD54.2bn.