Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* An Istanbul court yesterday annulled the 2023 provincial congress of the main opposition CHP, dismissing Provincial Chair Ozgur Celik and all elected delegates. The court appointed a temporary committee composed of Gursel Tekin, Zeki Sen, Hasan Babacan, Mujdat Gurbuz, and Erkan Narsap to manage the provincial organization. Following the decision, government bond yields moved higher, the BIST-100 index fell more than 5%, and Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread widened above 274bps. The annulment of the congress will be considered by market participants when evaluating potential scenarios — including absolute nullity, the appointment of a trustee board, and other possibilities — related to the lawsuit on the annulment of CHP’s 38th Grand Congress scheduled for September 15.
*TURKSTAT will release the August inflation figures today @ 10:00 local time. We forecast a monthly CPI increase of 1.9% for August, which would bring the annual inflation rate to 33.5% from the previous month’s 32.8%. According to a survey conducted by ForInvest, the market consensus estimates a 1.8% m/m CPI rise. We assess that downside risks to our year-end 2025 CPI forecast of 31% are intensifying. Today's upcoming data release will be particularly pivotal in shaping our near-term inflation outlook.