Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* According to the results of the July Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey, 12‑month ahead inflation expectations fell by 1.2pp to 23.4% for market participants and by 0.8pp to 39% for the real sector, while rising by 1.5pp to 54.5% for households. We estimate that the escalation of tensions and the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran have filtered through to July survey results, exerting upward pressure on household inflation expectations during the period. Our year-end inflation forecast stands at 31%, though we assess that CPI could close the year slightly below this projection, in the 29.5–30% range. Looking 12-month ahead, our headline CPI forecast stands at 25.1%.