Macro and Politics

* March Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% to 8.2% in February. As per the broad-based unemployment calculations: The rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment— dropped from 28.2% to 24%, which stands for the lowest level since February 2024. The combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment decreased from 18.8% to 16.2%, while the combined rate of unemployment and potential labor force edged down from 18.9% to 17.2%.

*TURKSTAT will release April Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The Economic Confidence Index ameliorated by 1.6% in March to 100.8 level, climbing to its highest level since June 2023 and rising above the 100-throshold for the first time since March 2024. As per the sub-indices of March data: the Consumer Confidence Index increased by 4.6%, reaching 85.9; the Real Sector Confidence Index rose by 0.4%, reaching 103.2; the Services Confidence Index increased by 0.2%, reaching 114.4; the Retail Trade Confidence Index decreased by 2.5%, reaching 113.4; and the Construction Confidence Index decreased by 0.5%, reaching 88.9 in March compared to the previous month. The Economic Confidence Index, which ranges between 0 and 200, reflects a pessimist outlook regarding the general economic outlook when it falls below the 100-threshold. The adverse impacts of rising domestic political angst as of March 19 and the increasing market volatility began to manifest in leading indicators starting from April. Accordingly, we assess that the economic confidence index, after its strong rise in March, may decline below the 100 threshold once again in April.