Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey March Manufacturing PMI will be announced @ 10:00 local time. The ICI Turkey Manufacturing PMI edged up from 48.0 in February to 48.3 in March, remaining below the 50-threshold for the 11th consecutive month and continuing to signal contraction. It’s worth noting that after climbing to 49.1 in December, the PMI saw a sharp decline to 48.0 in January. Although the index showed a modest improvement in February, it remains below the 50-threshold, indicating continued weakness in manufacturing activity. Following the weak performance of leading indicators in January, February data suggest a renewed improvement in activity, increasing upside risks to our 2025 growth forecast of 2.6%. Our baseline scenario for 2025 assumed that annual growth would decline in the first quarter, followed by a recovery starting in the second quarter, leading to a full-year growth rate of 2.6%. However, incoming indicators suggest that the anticipated first-quarter slowdown may be less pronounced than initially expected. As a result, the overall trajectory of growth dynamics continues to pose a risk to the disinflation process.