Macro and Politics

* Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek is set to hold a call with foreign investors today, according to the latest updates on Bloomberg. Şimşek is scheduled to speak at 1 p.m. London time in a teleconference, according to sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity due to the private nature of the information.

* Based on our calculations upon the CBT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of March 14 – 21, the net international reserves slumped by USD12bn to USD61.8bn and the gross FX reserves slid by USD8bn to USD163.2bn. We anticipate that the official reserve data, set to be released on Thursday at 14:30 local time, will likely reflect a similar trend in line with our calculations.

* The CBT will release the March Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) further improved to a level of 102.4, up from 100.9 in February, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI rose slightly to 102.8, up from 102.6. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) showed a modest change, with the unadjusted CUR edging down to 74.5% from 74.6%, while the adjusted CUR increased to 74.9% from 74.8% in February. Despite the increase observed in the unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) in January, the leading indicators across the board pointed to a weakening on an m/m basis in the first month of the year. However, leading indicators data for February signal a renewed recovery trend in economic activity. We observe that upside risks to our 2025 growth forecast of 2.6% are rising. Our baseline scenario for this year assumed that, following a decline in annual growth in the first quarter of 2025, a recovery in economic activity would take center stage from the second quarter onward, leading to a full-year growth rate of 2.6%. However, incoming leading indicators suggest that the anticipated slowdown in the first quarter may not materialize to the extent we had initially projected. Hence, the trajectory of growth dynamics continues to pose a risk to the disinflation process.