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Macro and politics

Tacirler Investment

* The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release December cash budget figures @ 17:30 local time. Recent data indicates a budget deficit of TL1.28tn and a primary deficit of TL81.7bn for the Jan – Nov period. Over the same period, the cash balance recorded a deficit of TL1.76tn, reflecting a persistent divergence between accrual-based and cash budget outcomes. While cash-based performance is likely to remain weak, we foresee non-tax revenues and interest expenditures emerging as the key drivers of fiscal performance in the months ahead. Considering the seasonal impacts on budget dynamics, we project a deficit of approximately TL640bn in December, bringing the 2024 budget deficit to TL1.9tn (4.3% of GDP), slightly below the 2024 Medium-Term Economic Program (MTEP) projection of TL2.15tn (4.9% of GDP). With a significant portion of the approximately TL1tn in earthquake-related expenditures for 2024 expected to be accrued in the final quarter, we anticipate a substantial widening of the budget deficit in December, similar to last year, narrowing the gap with the MTEP projections. Moreover, we project the 2025 budget deficit at TL1.61tn (2.7% of GDP), remaining marginally below the official forecast of TL1.9tn (3.1% of GDP).

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