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Macro and politics

Tacirler Investment

* TURKSTAT will release December inflation figures today @10:00 local time. Based on recent price data and the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce’s Istanbul inflation figures, we assess that the probability of December’s CPI increase falling below 1.5% – and thus coming in below both our house forecast and market expectations – has risen. Recall that we had previously projected our monthly inflation forecast for December at 1.8%, while the market estimate stands at 1.6%. We now anticipate the December CPI to register a monthly rise between 1% and 1.5%, remaining below expectations. If the CPI increases by 1% to 1.5%, as we foresee, the 2024 year-end CPI is likely to be slightly below 45%. Please note that we expect the 2025 year-end CPI to be at 28%.

* Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) December PMI increased to 49.1 level from 48.3, while standing below the 50-threshold for the ninth consecutive month. After averaging 49.8 in 1Q24, 48.5 in 2Q24 and 46.4 in 3Q24, the manufacturing PMI increased to an average level of 47.7 in 4Q24. The accompanying note underlined that the Turkish manufacturing sector neared stabilization in December as rates of moderation in output, new orders, purchasing and inventories all softened over the course of the month. The note highlighted that less positive was a renewed scaling back of employment, following a rise in November. Meanwhile, input costs increased markedly, but the rate of output price inflation eased to the weakest in just over five years. Leading indicators for the final quarter signal a moderate recovery in economic activity, with PMI data further supporting a more optimistic outlook for the period. However, it is important to emphasize that, on the manufacturing side, the overall trend continues to show a contraction in activity. Accordingly, the data we have collected so far indicates a positive sequential growth for Q4, with annual growth likely to stay slightly below 2% and show a modest decline compared to the previous quarter. We expect GDP growth to end 2024 at 2.9% and drop to 2.6% level by the end of 2025.

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