Macro and politics

* The CBRT will release December Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate @ 10:00 local time today. The Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) eased to 100.4 level from 100.9 as of November, while the seasonally adjusted RSCI increased to 103.4 from 102.2. In addition, the unadjusted Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) edged up to 76.1% from 74.9%, while the adjusted CUR rose to 75.6% from 75.2% level as of November. After highlighting a significant deepening of the slowdown in economic activity during the third quarter, the leading indicators started to show relatively moderate signals for the last quarter of the year. The 3Ç24 growth figures will be released this Friday. We anticipate that the Turkish economy will show a contraction on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of the year. Although we currently lack comprehensive data, as we are only midway through the final quarter, the available data so far points to a more balanced activity outlook for the fourth quarter in comparison to the third.